State of the Phillies: First base
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State of the Phillies: First base
David Murphy
This week, the Daily News and High Cheese will be taking an in-depth look at the Phillies roster moving forward, breaking down the state of each position as it relates to the future and the present. In Tuesday's newspaper, Ryan Lawrence will look at the infield. Today, we'll start things off with a look at first base.
The success of a lineup is dictated by the economics of salary and personnel distribution, and the Phillies' production at first base in 2012 was a prime example. The market of talent in baseball features a strong supply of players who can both hit for power and reach base at rates above the league average. Of the $178 million that a team can spend before it exceeds the luxury tax threshold, the Phillies allocated 14.05 percent to their starter at first base. Really, the number is slightly higher than that when you factor in the $10 million that each team is required to pay for player benefits, which counts against the threshold (in other words, teams can spend about $168 million on player salaries before going over the threshold). In 2012, the Phillies flunked those economics, as their production at third base was well below league average in most major offensive categories.
I. 2012 production, Phillies first basemen (NL rank out of 16 teams in parentheses)
AVG: .234 (13)
OBP: .308 (13)
SLG: .415 (11)
OPS: .723 (13)
HR: 27 (4)
RBI: 102 (3)
RS: 75 (10)
BREAKDOWN: Ryan Howard struggled after he returned from the disabled list in early July, hitting .219/.295/.423 with 99 strikeouts in 260 at-bats in 71 games. Howard maintained his knack for hitting with runners on base (his 56 RBI in 71 games would equate to 127 RBI in 162 games) and for hitting home runs (14 HR in 71 games equates to 31 HR in 162 games). But a .219 batting average and .295 on base percentage are significant detriments: if you value RBI, you must value runs scored, and a hitter must reach base in order to score runs. Howard recorded career-worst marks in walk rate, strikeout rate and at-bats-per-home-run. The first three months of the season featured Ty Wigginton (62 games, .757 OPS) and John Mayberry Jr. (24 games, .625 OPS) getting the bulk of the action at first base. Combined, the result was production that was well below what the majority of other National League teams received from first base.
II. Future Salary Commitments (Edited to reflect lux. tax threshold increase to $189 mil in '14)
2012: Ryan Howard, 33 years old, $20.0 million (14.05 percent of luxury tax threshold)
2013: Ryan Howard, 34 years old, $20.0 million (14.05 percent of luxury tax threshold)
2014: Ryan Howard, 35 years old, $25.0 million (13.23 percent of luxury tax threshold)
2015: Ryan Howard, 36 years old, $25.0 million (13.23 percent of luxury tax threshold)
2016: Ryan Howard, 37 years old, $25.0 million (13.23 percent of luxury tax threshold
2017: Ryan Howard, 38 years old, $23.0 million or $10 million buyout (13.23 percent or 0.00 percent of luxury tax threshold)
Flexibility: None. Howard is still owed $95 million in annual salary over the next four seasons, plus a $10 million buyout in 2017. His luxury tax cost is $25 million a season over the next four years, and he will be 33 years old during the 2013 season.
III. 2013 Organizational Depth Chart
- Ryan Howard, 33, $25 million average annual value (AAV) signed through 2016
- John Mayberry Jr., 29, pre-Arb (2.095 service time), club control through at least 2016
- Laynce Nix, 32, $1.25 million AAV signed thru 2013.
- Darin Ruf, 26, pre-Arb (< 1.000 ST), club control through at least 2018
- Erik Kratz, 33, pre-Arb (<1.000 ST), club control through at least 2018
BREAKDOWN: First base will not be a priority for the Phillies for the foreseeable future. Manuel said late in the season that he thought Kratz could handle spot duty at first base, although there is no indication that will play a major role in 2013. Ruf, like any player with one month of big league experience, is an unknown, although he is the best chance for the Phillies to have some young depth at the position over the life of Howard's contract.
IV. Potential for personnel upgrades
TRADE POTENTIAL: None. Even during Howard's healthy 2011 season, his .253/.346/.488 batting line and 33 home runs were nearly identical to Adam LaRoche's .271/.343/.510 and 33 home runs for the Nationals this year. LaRoche, of course, was making $8 million in AAV compared with $25 million for Howard. Just to give Howard away to another team, the Phillies would likely have to eat at least half of the money remaining on his contract.
Disagree? Prior to 2011, Paul Konerko signed a three-year, $37.5 million deal that covered his 35, 36 and 37 years old seasons. Howard is due to earn $75 million for his 35-to-37-year-old seasons, plus a $10 million buyout for his 38-year-old season. If Konerko's contract is what the free market would bear for those years of power production at first base, there is little reason to expect that a team would assume more than that amount in acquiring Howard. Factor in the fact that Konerko's number have been better than Howard's over the past few seasons, and that Konerko is not one year removed from a ruptured Achilles, and it is pretty safe to say that the market would view Howard as, at best, a $12.5 million-per-season player over the remaining four years of his contract.
The time for maneuvering at first base was the last few seasons, when Howard, Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols and Adrian Gonzalez all signed new deals. The Phillies made their choice, and now it is on Howard to prove them right or wrong.
FREE AGENT MARKET: With a slew of elite first baseman having signed contract extensions over the previous few seasons, the 2013 market is not a strong one. Assuming the Nationals exercise LaRoche's $10 million option, the only potential everyday players available are Mike Napoli, Carlos Pena and James Loney. The rest: Jason Giambi, Eric Hinske, Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, Casey Kotchman, Ty Wigginton, Lyle Overbay, Xavier Nady.
V. First base: In conclusion
The Phillies have no choice but to believe that Howard will get back to the production level he offered when they signed him to a five-year, $125 million contract extension during the 2010 season, when he still had two years left on his existing deal. The first baseman was not in the same physical condition that he was before his surgery, which the Phillies hope will be rectified by an offseason of his usual training regimen. General manager Ruben Amaro Jr. has acknowledged that the Phillies' future will be dictated largely by the performance of the players who are earning significant dollars, and Howard is the most crucial member of that club.
Howard's early return was like throwing jet fuel on a raging fire. Amaro let him come back too soon and he underperformed as badly if not worse than last season. Ruf should have been brought up in mid August and platooned at 1B with Lance Nix. Howard should have been shut-down at that point and not brought back until Spring Training. Ruf could be sent out to play Fall/Winter ball to some experience playing LF. I am sure Pat Gillick would have played it this way.— garcia7- @1republican:
You live up to your posting name - wrong on the facts, willing to take enormous chances using untried items. When called on it you repeat the same mistakes, only shouting louder.
(To other posters here = I apologize for the political comment - but when a jack@$$ like that uses a politically based ID, he is asking for it.
Howard was hurt in both 20190 and 2011. He was on the DL in 2010 and limped through the rest of the season. In 2011 he was hurt late in the season but played through it. For the last three weeks of the season he missed a week and couldn't hit at all when he came back. If you had any interest in facts, you could look it up.
Then you want to give the job to Ruf, who has started a grand total of 10 ML games.
— judas_priest 
The Phillies (Amaro) have to be proactive this winter in ensuring Howard has a trainer to work out with and they have to give Tony Gwynne a call to get back together with Howard. The Barry Bonds tutorials with RH have to be round filed so the hitter who went to all fields in 2006-2008 can reappear. I realize I've repeated this mantra over and over and over but to me, it's the only thing that makes sense. Do I think this will play out like this? No. It will be the same old same old next season. Amaro and Charlie do not appear to be hands on with their players in the way of additional instruction, dietary or conditioning help. I do believe RH can make that comeback. But not with the way things stand now on this team.- So I would be interested in what Ryan's average salary per year would be. He made very little his first few years, where a guy like Pujols has been making major bucks his whole career. It's a new stat for the sabremetricians!!!— DrStrangeglove
- To scuba pro: so sorry your IQ does not lend itself to understanding such a simple thing as to why the contract he has is what it is. I feel bad for you...— michael2_19030
- To scuba pro: so sorry your IQ does not lend itself to understanding such a simple thing as to why the contract he has is what it is. I feel bad for you...— michael2_19030
- Look, Howard's deal is what it is. To me, the best we can hope for is a solid No. 5 hitter the next 4-5 years with something like: .245, 32 HR, 110 RBI and average fielding. Did we overpay for that? Sure. But he's our guy so let's build a team with that in mind. Which means we need a No. 4 hitter, Hamilton or Upton.
— eman - The Cardinals have proved they could let go of one of the premier first basemen in the game after winning it all last year and still be back in the post season this year. Just unleash Howard and move forward with new blood.— sonnybuoy01
- wow what a total waste of lottery money— pr0f3ss0r
- In conclusion...the 2nd dumbest contract in the history of baseball. Thanks ARod.— Relocator
- I completely disagree that RAJ jumped too soon on extending Ryan Howard. I think it was a fair deal at the right time. Have you seen the 10 year deals going around? I'd pay extra $ per year to keep the deal shorter. Is that too deep for most of you? Just talking deals here, I know his production hasn't met expectations this first year.— vafan
- Howard is not the problem. Who cares how much he cost? It isn't coming out of your pockets. An unproductive outfield as well as 3rd base and a crappy bullpen was this years issue— Friend to All
- Not sure why this article was writtten when everyone knows that the phils are committed to Howard for at least 4 more years. He has hit more homers and driven in more runs than ANYONE in baseball since 2006--that's a FACT, not opinion. And he game back too quickly this year after a severe injury. Yes, he showed his warts ( who wouldn't on one leg), but he still had 57 rbi's in 70 games, an incredible number for a guy who hit .220 ! Let's relax and hope he gets healthy again, something he hasn't been for a few years. Soooo many teams have given lesser men/1B's longer term deals since Howard got his. Let's relax and concentrate on getting players for other open positions........— doylestown
- Great article! Really informative. Good job!— Todd Rader
- Someone should teach Howard the fine art of small ball. You don't have to hit a homerun every time you get to the plate but a couple hundred less strikeouts a year would be a major improvement. 25 mil for a strikeout machine is ridiculous.— Fly Guy
