State of the Phillies: First base
The latest Phillies and baseball news from Philly.com.
State of the Phillies: First base
This week, the Daily News and High Cheese will be taking an in-depth look at the Phillies roster moving forward, breaking down the state of each position as it relates to the future and the present. In Tuesday's newspaper, Ryan Lawrence will look at the infield. Today, we'll start things off with a look at first base.
The success of a lineup is dictated by the economics of salary and personnel distribution, and the Phillies' production at first base in 2012 was a prime example. The market of talent in baseball features a strong supply of players who can both hit for power and reach base at rates above the league average. Of the $178 million that a team can spend before it exceeds the luxury tax threshold, the Phillies allocated 14.05 percent to their starter at first base. Really, the number is slightly higher than that when you factor in the $10 million that each team is required to pay for player benefits, which counts against the threshold (in other words, teams can spend about $168 million on player salaries before going over the threshold). In 2012, the Phillies flunked those economics, as their production at third base was well below league average in most major offensive categories.
I. 2012 production, Phillies first basemen (NL rank out of 16 teams in parentheses)
AVG: .234 (13)
OBP: .308 (13)
SLG: .415 (11)
OPS: .723 (13)
HR: 27 (4)
RBI: 102 (3)
RS: 75 (10)
BREAKDOWN: Ryan Howard struggled after he returned from the disabled list in early July, hitting .219/.295/.423 with 99 strikeouts in 260 at-bats in 71 games. Howard maintained his knack for hitting with runners on base (his 56 RBI in 71 games would equate to 127 RBI in 162 games) and for hitting home runs (14 HR in 71 games equates to 31 HR in 162 games). But a .219 batting average and .295 on base percentage are significant detriments: if you value RBI, you must value runs scored, and a hitter must reach base in order to score runs. Howard recorded career-worst marks in walk rate, strikeout rate and at-bats-per-home-run. The first three months of the season featured Ty Wigginton (62 games, .757 OPS) and John Mayberry Jr. (24 games, .625 OPS) getting the bulk of the action at first base. Combined, the result was production that was well below what the majority of other National League teams received from first base.
II. Future Salary Commitments (Edited to reflect lux. tax threshold increase to $189 mil in '14)
2012: Ryan Howard, 33 years old, $20.0 million (14.05 percent of luxury tax threshold)
2013: Ryan Howard, 34 years old, $20.0 million (14.05 percent of luxury tax threshold)
2014: Ryan Howard, 35 years old, $25.0 million (13.23 percent of luxury tax threshold)
2015: Ryan Howard, 36 years old, $25.0 million (13.23 percent of luxury tax threshold)
2016: Ryan Howard, 37 years old, $25.0 million (13.23 percent of luxury tax threshold
2017: Ryan Howard, 38 years old, $23.0 million or $10 million buyout (13.23 percent or 0.00 percent of luxury tax threshold)
Flexibility: None. Howard is still owed $95 million in annual salary over the next four seasons, plus a $10 million buyout in 2017. His luxury tax cost is $25 million a season over the next four years, and he will be 33 years old during the 2013 season.
III. 2013 Organizational Depth Chart
- Ryan Howard, 33, $25 million average annual value (AAV) signed through 2016
- John Mayberry Jr., 29, pre-Arb (2.095 service time), club control through at least 2016
- Laynce Nix, 32, $1.25 million AAV signed thru 2013.
- Darin Ruf, 26, pre-Arb (< 1.000 ST), club control through at least 2018
- Erik Kratz, 33, pre-Arb (<1.000 ST), club control through at least 2018
BREAKDOWN: First base will not be a priority for the Phillies for the foreseeable future. Manuel said late in the season that he thought Kratz could handle spot duty at first base, although there is no indication that will play a major role in 2013. Ruf, like any player with one month of big league experience, is an unknown, although he is the best chance for the Phillies to have some young depth at the position over the life of Howard's contract.
IV. Potential for personnel upgrades
TRADE POTENTIAL: None. Even during Howard's healthy 2011 season, his .253/.346/.488 batting line and 33 home runs were nearly identical to Adam LaRoche's .271/.343/.510 and 33 home runs for the Nationals this year. LaRoche, of course, was making $8 million in AAV compared with $25 million for Howard. Just to give Howard away to another team, the Phillies would likely have to eat at least half of the money remaining on his contract.
Disagree? Prior to 2011, Paul Konerko signed a three-year, $37.5 million deal that covered his 35, 36 and 37 years old seasons. Howard is due to earn $75 million for his 35-to-37-year-old seasons, plus a $10 million buyout for his 38-year-old season. If Konerko's contract is what the free market would bear for those years of power production at first base, there is little reason to expect that a team would assume more than that amount in acquiring Howard. Factor in the fact that Konerko's number have been better than Howard's over the past few seasons, and that Konerko is not one year removed from a ruptured Achilles, and it is pretty safe to say that the market would view Howard as, at best, a $12.5 million-per-season player over the remaining four years of his contract.
The time for maneuvering at first base was the last few seasons, when Howard, Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols and Adrian Gonzalez all signed new deals. The Phillies made their choice, and now it is on Howard to prove them right or wrong.
FREE AGENT MARKET: With a slew of elite first baseman having signed contract extensions over the previous few seasons, the 2013 market is not a strong one. Assuming the Nationals exercise LaRoche's $10 million option, the only potential everyday players available are Mike Napoli, Carlos Pena and James Loney. The rest: Jason Giambi, Eric Hinske, Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, Casey Kotchman, Ty Wigginton, Lyle Overbay, Xavier Nady.
V. First base: In conclusion
The Phillies have no choice but to believe that Howard will get back to the production level he offered when they signed him to a five-year, $125 million contract extension during the 2010 season, when he still had two years left on his existing deal. The first baseman was not in the same physical condition that he was before his surgery, which the Phillies hope will be rectified by an offseason of his usual training regimen. General manager Ruben Amaro Jr. has acknowledged that the Phillies' future will be dictated largely by the performance of the players who are earning significant dollars, and Howard is the most crucial member of that club.
Where are all the Howard lovers at these days? Such a great call to sign this deal 2 years before it was necessary. If RAJ is deemed a failure he can look to this signing as the major reason why. 100k's in 71 games, the Green Mile is washed up!— JuanSamuel4prez- We're all here. Most of us only check in once in a while what with that whole support group thing, ya know? By the way, posting first and asking people where they are doesn't make much sense, Einsteen. — vafan
- Hindsight is 20/20, but it appears Howard came back too early from the Achilles. The expectation was a 9 month recovery; he was back in 6. The poor start apparently rushed his return, and the numbers bear that out. It doesn't look promising for the future, but I'm willing to see how a normal post-season recovery & 2013 Spring Traning plays out before proclaiming him done.— Dave14
- I know the giant contract says they won't, but there should at least be some consideration of platooning Howard. .784 OPS against RH vs .604 vs LH. Then take a look at Mayberry's .811 vs LH and .626 against RH. It's almost too obvious. Of course a good bit of that is opposing managers maneuvering to get lefty specialists in against Howard, but there's no rule that says Howard has to finish every game he starts either. I imagine the extra rest would do the big guy some good too. If they want to get back into contention with this roster they need to be bold and get the best players on the field for the situation at the time.— JettMartinez
- Note to Dave14: WRONG!! Howard's numbers have been declining over both the 2010 and 2011 seasons, in both of which he played without injury. He has zero playe discipline walking only 8.6% of his ABs. Over his career he has averaged a strikeout in 34% of his ABs. Players like Pujols, Teixeira, Fielder, LaRoche and Votta average only 16%. Howard is a liability they can no longer afford, both monetarily and talent-wise. Trade him and eat half the salary. We still save $50 million and get Ruf who is a power hitting 26 year old RH bat who can play every day.— 1republican
- Just so we're understanding you correctly, you want Rube to trade a proven superstar so a dude with 10 big league games can play? I'm all about Ruf's potential and frustrated at Ryan's season but go easy on the candy corn. — vafan
- He's only a proven superstar in Phillies fanatics minds.
If Howard were to hit the free agent market now, would he get a Pujols sized contract? Fielder? Votto?
You know the answer to that. It would be closer to Adam Dunn. He's no superstar.— fmMD - He's hurt so the obvious answer is no. I am confident he compares favorably to all your suggestions except Pujols. I watch the away games a lot of the time as part of the Extra Innings package. The rest of the league has much more respect for Howard than the vocal minority on this site. Can't wait for him to come back healthy next year. I predict a monster year for Ryan. — vafan
- vafan, and I would guarantee one thing many of these names WILL be one here chiming his bell if he does have that monster season. There are so many fraud Phillies fans nowadays. Like I said 95% of these voices on here would have been livid had they allowed Howard to walk a couple years ago. And they know it. — hawaiiphillyfan
- Great article. The biggest challenge for the Phillies will be how to handle the "Howard SItuation" if Ryan does not rebound significantly from this year, or even 2011, when his deteriorating statistics were already evident. Among commentators, there seems to be the assumption that with a little rest from what be a career-defining injury, he can rebound to hit .260 with 35 home runs and 120 RBIs. I am not so sanguine about this. What if, as I think is more likely the case, in mid-June, he's locked at .230 and striking out every 2.5 at bats? And with no better luck against left-handers or curve balls? The Phillies will have to be prepared to platoon him or even trading him to the AL and eating some of the ill-timed contract money. I think the Howard die-hards confuse the early years and Howard's congenial demeanor with a guy who can contribute on the baseball field every day, at this point. He's going to be paid by someone regardless; such is the contract. But will he help you win?— PeterG
- I hope he does rebound, but if you draw a straight line graph, around .245 is more likely with more strikeouts.
Pitchers are not afraid of him any more.— fmMD - 1republican--
Howard was injured in 2010, when he rolled his ankle in Washington in mid-summer and had to be helped off the field. He continued to play on it. That's just bad luck for the Phillies, coming as it did just a few months after the extension, but it was the start of the problems that led to his Achilles blowing out in 2011.— RRinVA - I think the 2012 season has to be just written off. Unlike others on this site--I do not pretend to know everything--but it appeared to me that Howard's bat was notably slower in 2012--perhaps because of difficulty driving off of his back foot. Again this is my observation--it caused him to start earlier and thus get fooled most often.
In many ways it is remarkable for a person his size to attempt to come back from that operation in the time he did.
The team absolutely needs him to perform better in 2013. I think the time to panic will be May or June of 2013.
One other factor to consider--Howard loses 10-15 points a year on his BA due to the shift. There are times I wish he would learn to bunt to make them play honest--but do you really want to take the bat from his hands that way?
I am willing to let this play out further.— Smoothellc - Chollie the hitting guru will turn Howie around.
Oops - been there; didn't work. The Phils will hire another hitting coach / sacrificial lamb that will prove to be ineffective.— jsqrd - Ryan Howard deserves better from a class organization, the Phillies, they should allow him to progress to full health in required amount of time according to his doctors and strength conditioning coaches. He needs at least 12 months of pure re-hab to get back to playing shape he was in 2011.If this means starting a platoon of Dom Brown and Mayberry/Ruf/Kratz to have all get some at bats and see who can also handle to position best defensively. Mayberry may well be best suited in outfield position longterm, whereas Ruf may not have the speed to run to balls in spacious ballparks leaving him a liability out there.
Kratz maybe a possible option to have him get more ABs and keep him flexibility for when Ruiz gets hurt or overworked which is common when you play 20 games per month without a break. In summary, don't bring Ryan back until mid-spring or even May/June to get him fully ready to play, then don't expect him to hit lights out until he's had 50-100 ABs and feels 100%. I think he rushed himself back two months too early and suffered stamina and strength conditioning issues in 2012.
Cheers,
BB— bigben2009
