State of the Phillies: Center field
The latest Phillies and baseball news from Philly.com.
State of the Phillies: Center field
David Murphy
Yesterday, we kicked off our week-long State of the Phillies series by breaking down the past, present and future of the first base and second base positions. Our mission over these next few days is to identify where, exactly, the Phillies can improve this roster. The outfield is one such area, although the free agent market isn't exactly bursting with talent there either. In today's story in the Daily News, Ruben Amaro Jr. tells Ryan Lawrence that the trade market could offer some possibilities. Here, we break it down.
This is the position that offers the most options for the Phillies thanks to the relative abundance of center fielders who are scheduled to hit free agency. Like most of the other positions on the market, though, this one does not offer a ton of high-end options, meaning to land one a team will have to open up the checkbook.
I. 2012 production, Phillies center fielders (NL rank out of 16 teams in parentheses)
AVG: .268 (7)
OBP: .332 (10)
SLG: .412 (8)
OPS: .745 (9)
HR: 16 (7)
RBI: 66 (6)
RS: 75 (13)
BREAKDOWN: Like most aspects of this Phillies team, center field was a tale of two halves. The first half featured Shane Victorino posting a below-average batting line of .261/.324/.401 with nine home runs. The second one featured John Mayberry Jr. posting a line of .258/.330/.399 with six home runs. The first three months saw the Phillies get poor bang for their buck (a $9.5 million salary for Victorino). The final two months saw the Phillies get about the bang they paid for in a $480,000 salary for Mayberry. All told, the Phillies were about league average, with below average marks in on base percentage and runs scored (funny how those two categories seem to be related).
II. Future Salary Commitments
2012: $9.5 million, 5.34 percent of luxury tax threshold (Shane Victorino, Opening Day)
2013: None
FLEXIBILITY: Plenty. End of story.
III. 2013 Organizational Depth Chart
- John Mayberry Jr., 29, pre-Arb (2.095 ST) under club control through 2016
- Nate Schierholtz, 29, arb-eligible, $1.3 million in 2012 (4.078 ST) under club control through 2014
- Tyson Gillies, 24, AA
BREAKDOWN: Mayberry spent most of the half playing center field. He can handle the position defensively, and performs well enough against left-handed pitchers that he is in the conversation. But at this point he projects as a rotational guy at best. Schierholtz spent some time in center field but he doesn't appear to have the range to be a viable everyday or even platoon guy. I did not list Michael Martinez because he really shouldn't be in the conversation for anything more than organizational depth. Gillies posted an .809 OPS in 339 plate appearances at Double-A Reading. This is a make-or-break year for him. The Phillies saw some reason for hope last season, but he'll need to stay on the field and perform while he is there for the entire first half of 2013 before we start talking about him as a potential big leaguer.
IV. Potential for Personnel upgrades
FREE AGENT MARKET: Aside from the bullpen, this is the vacancy that has the greatest volatility for the Phillies moving forward. There are so many options available that there is plenty of potential to grab a guy at a reasonable cost will ends up having a big season and making a difference in the lineup. Identifying which guys will fall into that category is the tricky part. I don't think even the Phillies know what direction they will head at this point. The smart play is patience, since the only clear difference-maker available is Josh Hamilton, and that situation is so unique that I find it hard to believe that the Phillies would make a serious push. Patience could be difficult to exert, since the center field market has all the makings of one in which agents and players will spend the early part of the offseason waiting for the first domino to fall. Michael Bourn and B.J. Upton are likely the first two dominos, but both have the right combination of potential and red flags to lead to a stalemate with teams who target them. Which would likely leave players like Angel Pagan and Melky Cabrera and Shane Victorino waiting around for the top of the market to get set. Those five are the clear everyday options who will be available. Cody Ross and Scott Hairston probably are not everyday options, although it would not surprise me to see one of those two land with the Phillies. At least right now it wouldn't. That could change as we look deeper at the position, which we'll do between now and the start of free agency. At this point, though, the Phillies' likely path is impossible to predict.
TRADE MARKET: Buster Olney reported earlier this week that Chris Young is very much available from the Diamondbacks. There are plenty of reasons why such a deal probably wouldn't make sense for the Phillies. For starters, Young is a career .224/.311/.409 hitter away from Chase Field, compared with a .254/.325/.465 hitter at home. Secondly, he is a career .228/.299/.419 hitter against righties. Since roughly 2/3rds of his plate appearances are going to come against righties, that can be a problem. Third, he is due to make $8.5 million in 2012, along with a $1.5 million buyout of an $11 million club option. If the Diamondbacks are not expecting anything in the way of prospects in return, $10 million for one season of Chris Young would not be the worst idea in the world. Still Gerardo Parra would make a lot more sense. But he'd also seem to make more sense for the Diamondbacks to keep. Which is why trading for players is not easy.
Denard Span has spent all season hearing his name in trade rumors. Again, this one falls into the category of not being worth the price it would likely cost to obtain him. Span hit .283/.342/.395 this season, but over the last three years that line is .271/.334/.367. He is affordable at $11.25 million over the next two seasons. But it still would appear to make more sense to go with a lower-cost free agent option instead of spending prospects on a player who really hasn't shown above-average hitting ability since his first couple of years in the league.
V. Center field: In conclusion
Judging by the emails I have received, there is a contingent of fans who would like to see the Phillies bring back Shane Victorino instead of pursuing change for change's sake. My intuition tells me that this is unlikely to happen, mostly because Ruben Amaro Jr. and Charlie Manuel have both said publicly that they believe that change for change's sake can be a good thing. That being said, the market has a funny way of affecting these decisions, and it could very well shake out that Victorino is the most cost-effective option.
Shane had heart. This team needs one.— gho_matt- While I agree, this is a joke - the focus on getting 'just a centerfielder' is flawed.
The corners on this team, 3B, 1B, LF and RF are the weakest links in the game. Get power there. Let the light hitting, defensive guys and declining offensive guys take up the middle. Can't see Mayberry and Brown at the corners. Can't see Galvis at 3B. Simply can't see this team competing with the pieces they have without adding true power in this off season at these corner spots through sign, trade and steal.— 24sDad - I think a lot of fans fail to distinguish between the 2007-2009 version of guys and the current version. Victorino HAD heart, but for most of the last two seasons he was one of the key drivers of the attitude that everything is OK and we'll get them tomorrow. Not a bad attitude if you are working on your game, but most of the Phillies vet hitters don't work on their games. They think they already have it figured out and when they slump they have the attitude "oh well, I get paid either way." Victorino was a poster boy for that attitude the last few years. — jtj06
- Peter Bourjos can be had from the Angels. — Romus
- Victorino is the best fielder of the group but you can also throw Ross and Pagan into the mix. Ross is better offensively (wOBA) but Pagan/Upton are not far behind. Whichever is most cost effective is the way I think they would go, but do you think any of them would take a three year contract or less? Hairston is intriguing but he can't crack 400 plate appearances so he's harder to evaluate.— 46 and 2
- Remember when Victorino needed to produce for 3 months before Utley & Howard came back and he failed miserably?? Yup, you are all idiots wanting him back. Stop chasing 2008 and make a move to change the culture of the team. In CBP Bj Upton is a legit 30/30 guy and plays great defense. Would fit nicely batting 5th or even 3rd between Utley and Howard (if Charlie ever realizes Utley isnt the same player he used to be).— FABER
- Agreed FABER.
Victo back; well while don't we invite back Rolen, and a few other greatest hits and call it Phils WOF 2013 Redux? The keystone kops offensive and defensive play behind a $100M pitching staff will make 2012 look like a walk through Pennypacker Park. GEEZ.— 24sDad - Ross is injury prone, not a good CF and wants a multi-year deal. At age 32, he doesn't make sense. Pagan is a better option. Forget the trade options, not worth it, unless is Jacoby Ellsbury.— EL Zorro
- What about Dexter Fowler? Some reports say the Rockies will part with him for young pitching. The Phillies have a lot of young pitchers but I think Colorado would want a guy like Biddle. — s
- Fowler would be worth it. The Rockies are hungry for pitching - they have none on the big club and nothing in the system either. Fowler had an excellent year this year after struggling between the Rockies and Colorado Springs (AAA) the previous couple of seasons. I would take him over Bourn, Upton (either one) or Victorino. — coloradoeagle
- I think the other point here is a lot of teams have a lot of needs. The Phillies have a lot of young arms, plus pitchers like Lee who they could move for the right pieces. Kendrick's stock is probably high right now as well. You could also say they have one expendable minor league catcher now that they have Joseph. So they have some potential trade chips. I personally think trades are more possible than a lot of the local writers would have us believe. — s
- I like that kind of thinking. Isn't that what big budget teams are supposed to do? Acquire smaller budget team's up and coming stars? They should target Fowler or even a guy like Cameron Maybin from San Diego. Those are two talented, mid-20s guys. Maybin is locked up for about $6 million per year and would probably put up better numbers at CBP than at PETCO. Fowler isn't under contract and would be more expensive, but to me, both of those guys are better than throwing money at 30 something has-beens or bringing another low OBP guy like BJ Upton for free agent money. — jtj06
- If you consider most championship teams have a balance of powerhitters and speed/good batting average centerfielders it makes sense to look at the total positions of outfield as a whole. Therefore if you have DBrown,JMayberry,Kratz/Ruf/platoons in left and righ field positions you should bring is speed/OBP centerfielders such as Victorino, or trade for the likes of Coco Crisp, Hamilton, or other more speedy defensive types who hit for average and get on base,therefore can hit higher in the lineup for the sluggers to knock them in. I think there will be plenty of players excited to come to Philly to play with one of the top pitching staff in the bigs, as long as we don't wear their arms out half-way through the season. Pitch-count is sometimes overworked however once pitchers get over 5-10 yrs of usage someone needs to explain they are in it to win it in October/November playoffs not just to pad their already swollen seasonal stats!
Cheers,
BB— bigben2009 - One of the things the Cardinals and Giants, the last two WS champions, do is integrate players slowly by using them in a platoon/part time system until some grab the opportunity and become regulars. Look at the Cardinals in particular the last two years. LaRussa did a fantastic job of rotating Nick Punto, Skip Schumaker, Ryan Theriot, Jason Jay, Daniel Descalso, Allan Craig and David Freese. Freese, Jay, Craig and Descalso are regulars right now. The Phillies, under Charlie Manuel, don't utilize that system. Charlie keeps throwing the same players everyday and there is not room for young or bench players to develop. And when they finally play have a short leash. In the meantime, players like Raul, Utley, Polanco, Howard and Rollins could have used a day or two every week. Instead, they were thrown out there every day and every inning and eventually all wore down. That has to change.— EL Zorro
- John Jay is his name. BTW, the Cardinals look like they are one win away to move on. They are leading the Nats 5-0 after 6 innings.
— EL Zorro - Ha ... I see your post on Fowler in the other outfield thread El Zorro. Good points. I figured he was better at Coors but I didn't look the splits up. I'd still take him for the right package.
A guy like Fowler had better lead-off numbers than Rollins last year. Even a guy like Coco Crisp, who may be tradeable with Cespedes in the picture (not sure if I'm interested but he may be available).
I think if I were GM I'd be looking to end the "Rollins has to lead off" debate once and for all as part of getting the players I need.
If not trades are made I think I'll be disappointed. I think they need to do more than pay some overpriced free agents and give some of the same guys yet another year to bloom. Some pieces need to be moved.— s - once again, the ego of the moron RAJ gets in the way of a good business decision.— Richardgozinya
- Headley and Upton— Seegs
- So Mayberry provides average centerfield production at 480k, and a change needs to made? Why? Save the money, use it for the bp and 3rd. All of the possible replacements are either no better, or prohibitively expensive, and still have their own issues. Why is this a tough decision, bring back mayberry!— mjc1
- Yes. mjc1, if you look at the production of Phillies RF they were at the bottom on most categories and that was because Pence put avg to avobe avg numbers in the first half, while Mayberry put similar numbers than Victorino and the our CF were avg. Yet, the writers and some posters want Brown to start and Mayberry to warm the bench. Somebody please explain that to me, and I don't want to hear upside. We have been waiting 3 years for that upside to pan out and to borrow a phrase from the great Yogi Berra, it's getting late early. BTW, Pagan hit a homer in his first AB. His asking price is going up.— EL Zorro
- If Shane was so great, why was he traded? He is gone, let him go. Time to upgrade and move beyond this aging group. Resigning Victorino is absolutely the wrong direction this team needs to take. Have to agree with Faber.— billtfla
- Cody Ross is no centerfielder ! Neither is Shierholtz.
Hamilton played left mostly with the Rangers - barely adequate as a centerfielder.
Bourn is very good defensively but strikes out way too much. The belief is that he is very vulnerable to high velocity fastballs.
Victorino is a switch hitter which makes him an everyday player. Still chases down the ball with the best of them but arm still not fully back to where it was three years ago. His market value really dipped after a rather dissapointing season with the Phillies and Dodgers. May be had at a bargain price. High upside for a big rebound year. Worth another look if the price is right. Might be a difference maker if he could hit .300 again and steal 30+ bases. Would still save a lot of runs with his defense. Could be the best one out there for a team willing to take a chance.
— candidly - Not fully true. Hamilton has played more CF than LF career. In 2010/2011 he played more LF. This year more CF again. He's also played some RF.
Hamilton seems like a huge risk but if it paid off it would also be huge. It's interesting to consider. Also too many LH hitters in the lineup again but I'm not sure it matters with the power he could bring.
I really have no interest in Bourn and I'm very lukewarm about a Victorino return. That ship seems to have sailed. A guy like Schierholtz could easily end up in a trade package. Assuming they get a new outfielder or two there are too many outfielders vying for bench spot. A few guys are likely going to be playing somewhere else. I can't see that any outfielder is a lock if the right trade can be made.— s - Hamilton isn't close to as risky as the deals signed with Howard in 2010 and Rollins before this year. If you can get him for 5 years or less- ideally 4- you'd have to consider it and do it if you had the money. — jtj06
- @s, Fowler's numbers look good. 300 BA, 13 HR and .863 OPS. However, he had a .332 BA and .984 OPS at Coors Fields. On the road, he hit .262 with an .720 OPS. 10 of his 13 HR were hit at home. For his career he has posted a .243 BA-698 OPS away from home. At friendly Coors Field .295/882. He still very young at 26 and athletic, though. It depends of what the Rockies ask for him. I don't know if you part with Biddle. I'll give them KK and Trevor Mays. As for the Nats, that was the GM's decision to shut down Strasburg. It's not looking good right now. He should be fired for that and for giving Werth that big contract.— EL Zorro
- Personally, I would not part with Biddle for Fowler. I think Biddle is lining up to be a stud pitcher. Plus he's local. I have to admit I like that. — s
- Strongly disagree RE: Rizzo in Washington. The Werth signing worked out beautifully. He said at the time he wanted to make a big splash for a winning player to change the attitude and he was willing to overpay for that-- almost desiring to overpay-- to send the signal to the organization that the time to win is now. It seems to have worked. Gillick did that when he went after Garcia. People pan that deal, but it was that deal that inspired Rollins to call the Phillies the "team to beat in the NL East." Before then second place and a winning record seemed to be satisfactory outcomes- taking a bold, risky move signaled that it was not. Shutting down SS was a good move too. At the end of the day it will pay off big time. — jtj06
- Whoa ... Ibanez. I dissed him a bit because I don't want him back but I like Raul and I'm happy for his success. I like these Orioles though.— s
- I'm sorry, but it's go-for-broke time: Hamilton in center, batting third or fourth, and we have a new team. Sign a Cody Ross or Angel Pagan for quality depth, mix in Brown, Nix, Mayberrry (or not!). At that point, I'd let third base solve itself, with Frandsen in the lead and Galvis behind him. Maybe Asche in September.
I mean, how about this lineup: 1. Rollins (not ideal); 2. Utley; 3. Hamilton; 4. Howard; 5. Ruiz (a push but it is what it is); 6. Ross/Pagan; 7. Brown or the other outfield mix guy; 8. Frandsen/Galvis.
The only difference-maker out there is Hamilton and a lot of top-spending teams won't be in the market for him after generous 2011 seasons: Angels, Dodgers, Marlins, Nationals, Tigers.
Is Hamilton a gamble? Sure. Would he hit something like: .285, 40 HR and 120+ RBI in CBP, while playing a decent center field for the next 2-3 years (then move him to left)? Probably. Are we a big market team with a chance to win it all in the next 2-3 years, or aren't we?
— eman - Totally agree with Hamilton. Way Charlie manages we need the Hrs period. Not 25 but 40+
NL perfect for him, 4 years 100 mill.
But won't be able to get Ross too, but I think RUF is the real deal, and a 300 hitter.
Add Mike Adams, and a Martinez replacement for AAA and good to go— WFChamps - Ruf gets put in left field and hits either 5th/6th behind Howard and or Ruiz. Rollins, Frandsen, Utley, Howard, Ruf/Ruiz, Brown/Mayberry Jr., Pitcher. This is the current projected line up without any changes. If RAJ/Monty bring in a CF, depending on who, Frandsen could be moved to the #8 spot with the new CF batting 2nd, assuming he can make contact. The #2 hitter needs to make contact and be able to move runners by hitting the other way or sacraficing. Utley/Howard/Ruiz/Ruf is a tough row to pitch to, especially if Rollins and the #2 hitter can get on or move a runner over. There is potential here folks.— drhoffman
- I like your thinking. Pretty close to what I have been saying this offseason. My ideas are to sign Swisher & a stud set up man and move Utley to the 2 hole. Ruf absolutely starts in LF and could be replaced defensively late in games (like Burrell), same thing with Frandsen (galvis late in games). Lineup would look like this: Jroll, Utley, Swisher, Howard, Chooch, Ruf, Frandsen , Mayberry.
Thats a pretty solid lineup with a lot more pop and balance then before. While a Bourne or Upton would upgrade center I think the value is in replacing Brown/Schierholtz in RF with Swisher. Its also laughable at the suggestion of Chris Young. He absolutely is not an upgrade in CF, especially considering the $.— philsfan in the atx - Stick with Big John Mayberry! Give him a legitimate shot!— ngfs66
- Hamilton is too risky. That means he won't be getting deals as long as Pujols or fielder. Maybe a shorter deal for close the amount of money. Would something like three years 85-90 million get Hamilton to bite? Would love to see Rollins, utley, Hamilton, Howard then Chooch. What a one thru five. Switch hitter, lefty, righty, left, righty. The sticking point is the annual salary to Hamilton. Phil's would def have t make up for the shorter contract length with a higher annual salary. Would Uncle Monty ok $30 million a year for MLB's top RBI guy for the last 4 or 5 years????— michael2_19030
- We had Shane. We didn't make the playoffs. Goodbye Shane. I want to move on.— bmcw
- Say no to Hamilton, too many issues, health, past, state of mind. Even Texas is letting him test the market without initiating negotiations. Just think about that. He's not worth the risk/reward, no to mention his asking price.— EL Zorro
- No to Upton or Bourn, yes to Fowler. Also possibly yes to Denard Span, if he's recovered from the minor injuries that cost him playing time last year and this year. Murphy is a little quick to dismiss Span, whose lifetime line is .284/.357/.389 -- a better OBP than the people the Phillies have had in CF recently. (Span's slugging % is lower, but that just means he wouldn't hit in the middle of the order as Vic and Mayberry have done.)— Dave Clemens
- With Hamilton's problems, on and off the field, i certainly
would'nt give him the 85 to 90 mil for 3 years as someone
suggested. That's almost 30 mil per year for the above
mentioned problems. Good hitter? Yes. Basket case? Yes.
Worth that kind of money? No. This guy could crack as almost
anytime without any warning. These people who are saying we
should get Hamilton for all that money and then Hamilton
fails are the ones that will be leading the march to hang RAJ.— associate - RE: Hamilton - Cannot afford another player with a salary that eats a high percentage of the budget. Too many other needs. He is also at the age when he could start breaking down. Fowler or Pagan make more sense. If Victorino can be had for bargain he would be a good backup. if the manager wears earplugs. Realistically, Phils need some luck and good health while they wait for prospects to mature at third,pitching. Ruben needs some luck or better use of scouting reports in picking backups. Nix is a case in point where health and luck are needed.— johnny eagle
- C'mon guys - your taking a gamble on Hamilton. We are talking three years as MLB' s highest paid player - not five years, not 8 years, not ten years. Three!!!— michael2_19030
- The only veteran difference-maker out there is Hamilton. If you can get him on a 4 year deal you have to do it. I'd pass on the rest of the guys and bank on Gillies, because you know if the Phillies ink a vet to a 3-4 year deal, it doesn't matter how good Gillies plays, he won't ever sniff the majors and I'd rather see them not pay $10 million per year for $500K production with no upside.— jtj06
- Would be happy with the return of the "Happy
Would be happy with return of "Happy Hawaiaan" next season
— Eugene Bell - Some one in the Phillies org is out of theit ever loven mind. Broke up a world champ out field for what ever reason. Now you have the worst out field in the game. Werth is looking good. Ibans looking good. Vic looking good. Give me a brake with these clowns we are stuck with.— old SC Frank
- Agree Hamiltons the one sure difference maker in FA. Forget getting him for 3 years. We are talking about one of MLBs best hitters. It is going to take at least 100-120 for 5 years to get him. With state of Phills payroll doubt Phills doing this. Whoever signs him will want clause in contract regarding substance issues. Actually there is something similar in contracts now. G.M. Ryan arguing about time Hamilton chose to stop tobacco chewing. Im hoping Phills wind up with middle of the order hitter. Preferbly righthanded hitter who plays CF. Dont see much out there that fits this.— Don w
- Sometimes none of the options are good. This is a case. Bourn/Upton would be a waste of money that is needed elsewhere. Pagan likely won't be available. Ross is not a CFer. Period. The best choice of a poor list to resign Vic cheap for his defense and speed and get LF and RF resolved.— sfofan
- Either Fowler or Pagan.— athousandgods
