Roy Halladay's shoulder and 2014
Besides three grounds crew members, Roy Halladay was the lone soul on the field at Citizens Bank Park on Sunday morning. He ran sprints on the warning track, which probably offered little solace for the weeks of rest ahead.
Roy Halladay's shoulder and 2014
Matt Gelb
Besides three grounds crew members, Roy Halladay was the lone soul on the field at Citizens Bank Park on Sunday morning. He ran sprints on the warning track, which probably offered little solace for the weeks of rest ahead.
The Phillies finished exactly one-third of their 2012 season with a 5-4 loss to Miami on Saturday. In that first third of the season, Halladay made 11 starts and threw 72 1/3 innings. If he indeed misses eight weeks with a shoulder injury, that will cover the second third of the season.
So let's say Halladay makes 22 starts in 2012 — which could very well be an optimistic figure. Halladay averaged 7.45 innings per start in his first two seasons with the Phillies. He's at 6.58 in 2012. So he theoretically could finish between 150-170 innings pitched in 2012.
Why does any of this matter? Well, Halladay has a $20 million vesting option for 2014 that automatically activates under three conditions all being met:
1. He must throw at least 225 innings in 2013.
2. He must not be on the disabled list at the end of 2013.
3. He must throw at least 415 innings total between 2012 and 2013.
Reaching condition No. 3 will be extremely difficult if Halladay misses these eight weeks. If he achieves even 170 innings in 2012, that would still require 245 innings in 2013. Halladay has done that three times (2003, 2008, 2010). But he will be 36 next season.
Maybe the Phillies dodge a bullet; a $20 million investment in a 37-year-old pitcher could be risky. Or maybe this hurts later; Halladay becomes a free agent after a dynamite 2013 and looks for one more big deal the Phillies cannot offer. Or maybe it's not a big deal at all and both sides reach an amicable second agreement.
Either way, this injury could very well make Halladay a free agent one year sooner than expected.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
Excellent analysis. An unrealized problem on an already problem-laden horizon.— Konstanty- I don't see why this is a problem at all. nobody is giving a 37 year old pitcher a long term deal. If the Phillies are contenders they would have just as good a shot as anyone at giving him maybe a year or two more on a correctly priced deal. If the Phillies are not contenders, who wants a 37 year old declining pitcher at $20 million?— Sewellmatt
...why don't you numbskulls accept the fact that the run's over...there will be bigger fish to fry by the 2014 season...- Great work, Matt! As much as I love Roy's work ethic, I can't see him as a member of what will be a rebuilding 2014 Phillies team.— tyroneslothrop
Hopefully there's a clause like that covering Jimmy Pop-Up.- This could be good. Halladay doesn't want to go anywhere. He accepted less to come here. Resign him at a lower number and free up money to lock up Hamels.— jdimaggio555
- You never see Marlin announcer ask for tracker on close pitchers that they got a strike. I was wondering about a number of outside pitchers Marlins got called striles on.— Don w
- Although it's interesting to know the 3 conditions in his contract for that $20 mil vesting option, here's a suggestion: let's start worrying about 2012. 2014 can take care of itself.— 1republican
- Halladay will be long-gone with D'arnaud, Drabek and Gose becoming stars, Hamels an ace elsewhere and Phils mired in the basement for years while paying Howard $25mil/yr and Rollins $11mil/yr ...this will be the legacy of the clueless rube and his destruction of the Phils franchise— warbiscuit
- Could this development single-handedly make signing Cole a touch more of a no-brainer?— Brian F.
- Trade Hamels, Lee, and Halladay now!— socfiend
- I know RAJ likes signing and overpaying aging, high injury risk, former stars, but in concept the clause was put in place to keep the Phillies from doing just that.— jtj10
- Here's hoping 2014 is a re-loading year and this year -- 2012 -- is a rebuilding year. Think about it: We get Polanco, Blanton, Contreras, Victorino, Wiggs,Schneider off the books. And,by the looks of it, we deal Hamels at the 2012 trade deadline. That means 2013 is re-tooling and 2014 is reloading. I'd love to have Doc as the No. 2 or 3 starter on the 2014 team.
— eman - Ahh, more negativity from Phils fans. I'm not saying we shouldn't be considering the future at all, but all people think about in this town is negative stuff. I've also been amazed at how many people look at sports as if their lives depended on it. It's a game to US, and we should treat is as such. The players make their livings off of it, but it's unfortunate how many "regular" people talk about this stuff as if their office or construction jobs depended on it. Here's a realization...to US it's entertainment, just let it go already and simply enjoy it. Or...you could move and become fans of some mediocre team. Just realize how lucky we are people to be able to see this great team recently. Yes, this year is not as great as recent ones, but it's better than being a Cubs fan...— aisaac
- The Phillies need to trade Hamels and get some good prospects. He is worthless to this last place team and there's no way in hell he'll re-sign with the Phillies. He is LA bound when he hits free agency.— fischman
