Phillies' trade chips won't bring much | David Murphy
Dont look for any top prospects to arrive in any trade-deadline deals.
DON'T EXPECT the Phillies' outlook to get any brighter after the trade deadline. You might've assumed that already, given the number of trade deadlines that have passed since they last sniffed competitiveness. Each one has seen the Phillies as sellers, and, yet, here we are again. Caveat venditor, I suppose (that's "seller beware," according to Google).
Truth is, the trade deadline rarely lives up to its hype. The Phillies' failure to capitalize on the litany of trades they've executed in recent years is by no means an exception to the rule. There's no such thing as a can't-miss prospect in baseball; anybody who comes close is almost always off-limits. The Phillies learned this lesson during their year-and-a-half quest to trade Cole Hamels. Jorge Alfaro, Nick Williams and Jake Thompson remain in the minors, while Nomar Mazara, whom Texas refused to discuss, has a .788 OPS and 10 home runs as a 22-year-old in the Rangers' outfield.
That said, hype might not be the appropriate word to use when talking about the Phillies circa 2017, whose top commodity is a 36-year-old side-arming reliever in the last year of his contract. That's no disrespect to Pat Neshek. He's had a nice season, and 10 years from now we just might look back and remember that, holy hell, he was the Phillies' All-Star representative. That might not earn him a spot on the Wall of Fame, but those Comcast SportsNet guest analyst checks will offer a nice supplement to his retirement savings whenever his playing days are through.
What it almost certainly will not earn the Phillies is a viable prospect of any stripe. For starters, the trade market is always awash in relievers, many of whom boast the power strikeout stuff that teams tend to covet as they seek to fortify their late-inning bullpens. Remember last year? Among those dealt were Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller, Mark Melancon and Zach Duke, all of whom possessed far more value than Neshek will offer.
What kind of value is that?
Take Duke, for example. When the White Sox dealt him to the Cardinals last year, the 33-year-old lefty had appeared in 53 games with a 2.63 ERA and rate stats of 10.0 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, and 0.5 HR/9. He also had a year-and-a-half remaining on his contract. In return, St. Louis traded away outfield prospect Charlie Tilson, whom MLB.com ranked as Chicago's 13th-best prospect heading into this season.
A better comp for Neshek might be righthander Tyler Clippard, whom the Yankees acquired after trading away Chapman and Miller. In 40 appearances for the Diamondbacks, the 31-year-old Clippard had a 4.30 ERA, 11.0 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 and 1.7 HR/9. In return, Arizona landed Vicente Campos, a 24-year-old who started the season at Class A but ended up making a handful of relief appearances in the majors for the D-backs. Campos apparently has some upside, though not enough to keep Arizona from waiving him after his season ended with a broken arm. The Angels claimed him, though he is not regarded as a top-10 prospect even in one of the most barren systems in the majors.
It only gets worse from there.
The one good thing about the recurrence of Howie Kendrick's hamstring strain is that the Phillies probably weren't going to get much for him, anyway. Last year, the Twins' trade of infielder Eduardo Nunez landed them a decent pitching prospect in lefty Adalberto Mejia, who ranked 91 on Baseball America's midseason Top 100 and who won the No. 5 spot in the Twins' rotation heading into this season. Nunez certainly wasn't hitting .361/.418/.492 at the time of the deal, as Kendrick is currently hitting for the Phillies, but he also wasn't about to turn 34 and in the last four months of his contract. And he wasn't battling soft-tissue injuries.
Beyond Neshek and Kendrick, the Phillies have few obvious trade chips. They got a good primer on Jeremy Hellickson's potential value during the run-up to last year's trade deadline, when they didn't find an offer to their liking. And Hellickson has been much less of a pitcher this season: In addition to his 4.40 ERA, his strikeout rate currently sits at a measly 4.5 per-nine.
The Phillies could find some interest in shortstop Freddy Galvis. Like Nunez, he still has a year-and-a-half remaining on his contract. The OBP struggle is real, but a little bit of power can add real value to a contender's infield, and Galvis has at least shown that over the last season-and-a-half.
Long story short, the Phillies will need to get creative if they hope to alter their prospect portfolio in the coming months. What they really need is for the fruits of past years' deadline to blossom.
@ByDavidMurphy