Posted: Thursday, September 4, 2008, 12:14 PM | 36 comments |
 

Phillies: Glug...glug...?
options
 

Doing the oddsmaking thing as we sit again on the edge of the sink, listening for the first sickening gurgle to emerge from the proverbial drain as the Phillies head to Shea Stadium.

If the Phils were to get swept this weekend by the Mets, they would be dead. They would be six games behind the Mets with 19 games left to play in the National League East standings, and at least 4.5 games behind the Brewers (but probably more) in the NL wildcard standings. I know, I know, they came from seven games behind with 17 left to play last year against the Mets, but this is not last year. That was a historic collapse. The Phils were a much better hitting team then -- although they've hit better lately. There would be no more games on the schedule against the Mets. It would be over. They would be done -- dead, dead, dead, dead, dead, dead. Their odds of winning would probably be about 2 percent.

If the Phils were to lose two of three to the Mets, they would be comatose. You cannot count on the Mets to collapse again. They show no signs of it -- in fact, they have shown a nice bounceability in recent weeks, coming from behind, hanging in games, even with a wretched bullpen (and especially in the absence of closer Billy Wagner). Odds of the Phils winning if they are four games out on Sunday night: 10 percent.

If the Phils were to win two out of three, they would be two behind with 19 to play. That is still a hill to climb. In the end, if this were to happen, it is looking more and more like they will have to hit themselves out of it. The pitching is much better than last season but the wear and tear of a long season is becoming apparent. The games being lost in the bullpen now are gut punches. The Phillies' bullpen ERA in the first half of the season was 2.71. In the second half, it is 4.39. The Mets' bullpen is still measurably worse -- its second-half bullpen ERA is 4.90; ouch -- but this is turning into a series of grisly car wrecks, night after night. It is a hard way to come from behind. So, win two of three and the Phillies' odds of winning the division grow to only 33 percent.

If the Phillies sweep, they will be even with the Mets with 19 to play and will have changed the entire psychology of the race. At that point, the Mets will officially be facing their own gagging past -- with helpful reminders from the friendly New York newspapers. It will still be a close call, obviously, because both teams are so clearly flawed. But the mental edge will belong to the Phillies then, even if the race was only tied. So, sweep and the Phillies' odds of winning the division would be 60 percent.

That's it. That's how hard it is going to be. That's what happens when you lost two out of three in Washington.
Posted by Rich Hofmann @ 12:14 PM  Permalink | 36 comments
36
Comments   
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 12:48 PM, 09/04/2008
    You got it Rich! Losing 2/3 to the Nats was BRUTAL - not to mention sickening. It all comes down to this weekend. It's amazing how the GM did (does not) not have the foresight to actually bolster their bullpen or their lineup before the trade deadline. Isn't that his job? Oh - I'm sorry, I forgot that the Phils usually don't make any moves unless they are marginal. What was I thinking? It's frustrating for sure. I mean, how many more oppotunities are they going to squander before Chase, Cole, Ryan and Shane are either gone or 40?
    — Ligs
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 1:18 PM, 09/04/2008
    Toast. Actually burnt toast. Let the house cleaning begin. Bye Bye Chalie, Bye Bye Gillick, Bye bye everyone in the pen except Romero, Hamels, and Moyers. Bye Bye Burrell. Maybe bye bye Jimmy.
    — atleaglefan
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 1:19 PM, 09/04/2008
    There's something to be said for playing hard, and they seem to be doing more of that lately. We'll see if it results in some wins, but when Ryno gives you 2 HR, you'd better capitalize, cause he's bound to go on a strikeout bender for the next couple games. The pen has been good this year overall, but the stats Rich mentions for the second half are a stark contrast to the first half. That kind of pitching leads to not only a couple of extra losses here and there when the pen does blow it, but also leads to Charlie maybe staying with a starter one batter too long, which can be deadly as well.
    — B in DC
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 1:24 PM, 09/04/2008
    ATL - good luck finding someone to give you equivalent numbers to JRoll. Compare him to other SS in the league and he's still having a decent year offensively, and his defense is top shelf as usual. Jason Donald it not ready for the pressure of replacing a former MVP, guaranteed.
    — B in DC
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 1:26 PM, 09/04/2008
    you're an idiot. probably said the same thing last year. Quit writing and put your head in the sand. No talent, no positivity. just bitter and uninformed.
    — aman1711
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 1:27 PM, 09/04/2008
    Yes it's getting very painful to watch. Two out of three at Shea and the division is still within their grasp. Anything less and I agree they are done. They may be done now with the way they've been playing. There just seems to be something missing this year (Aaron Rowand's bat AND leadership?) This team seems to have no one to stand up and be a leader. J-Roll likes to stand up and talk but his mouth has only hurt morale this year. He certainly has not been a leader of this team. So my question is, with this same nucleus of guys, how is the season any different next year? I think a blockbuster trade may be in order to shake things up, such as Ryan Howard or J-Roll going somewhere. Obviously you need to get some amazing returns such as a number one starter and a power hitting team leader, but these all need to be considered in the off season or we will see much of the same sluggish offense with no real team leader to step up again next year.
    — Drummerboy79
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 1:27 PM, 09/04/2008
    The whole game hinged on the replacement of Eyers by Chad for one more batter; Zim. It exploded. Too bad because the Mets are not going to fold this year. They can actually hit in the clinch. The Phils will have to sweep the Mets and then actually hit in the clutch-clinch etc. We can see Pat is not up to it. It appears perhaps that Rollins, Chase,Ryan, Vic are starting to get hotter again. It then will be up to the starters to go 7 innings and then hang on.
    — KGKoons
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 1:51 PM, 09/04/2008
    B in DC, I think Charlie is always a little late with his decisions; pitching; batting and defense. I am at least glad they had the gumption to put Hamels in against Santana; no one else would do (I was actually keeping my fingers crossed about the decision).
    — Clem
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 2:29 PM, 09/04/2008
    Eh, it's baseball. Losing two of three to a horrible team happens. The Phils have to win from here to get in, but, !news flash!, even if they won 2 of 3 or swept the Nationals they would still be in 2nd place and they would STILL need to win the weekend series against the Mets. Although, a serious problem that has arisen in the last few games: who is reliable enough to be trusted to protect an 8th inning lead? Maybe Manuel can lobby the umps to give the other team 6 outs in the 7th inning and then skip to the 9th, given the recent 8th inning horror shows the bullpen has performed.
    — CyHamels
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 2:29 PM, 09/04/2008
    Sweep the Mets or pack it in. Yeah, like that will happne! Its over. See you in the spring with a lot less optimism and for my part, reduced tickets sales.
    — gtb513
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 2:35 PM, 09/04/2008
    If they don't take at least 2 of 3 from the Mess, the season is over. Yes, the Mess were 7 up with 17 to play last year, and if the Mess sweep they will be 6 up with 22, or 21 to play, so anything is possible
    — jamarder
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 3:04 PM, 09/04/2008
    Are the Phils almost dead? I dunno. It all depends on how Myers pitches tomorrow night. And if they survive that game, it will all depend on how Moyer pitches Saturday... and so on. The "long season" is over. They are now left with 22 1-game series. And all are "must wins". And it begins, as it did way back in April, with Brett Myers...
    — RollinsWasRight
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 3:07 PM, 09/04/2008
    in retrospect - The Eagles are never good in years that The Phillies are - so maybe if they miss the playoffs - The Eagles will truly return to dominance. I know - muddled logic - but this team and town defies logic - so it seems apropos.
    — mebphila
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 3:17 PM, 09/04/2008
    jamarder, you spelled them wrong, it's the Mets! I don't think the Phlubs have enough to rally against the Mets... doesn't football start this weekend?
    — dametswon
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 3:47 PM, 09/04/2008
    Unfortunately, it looks like it's not our year. The Mets are coming off a three game sweep in Milwaukee and the Phils can't even win a series at Washington. It's a shame, with this lineup and better pitching, you would think they'd be on top. Let's see what next year brings.
    — PhillyRules


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About Rich Hofmann
Rich Hofmann arrived at the Daily News in 1980 for a job whose status was officially designated as "full-time, temporary." A senior at Penn at the time, he was hired to fill in on the copy desk during a staff illness. The notion of him covering the Eagles or being a columnist did not exist in anyone's imagination. It was supposed to be six weeks and out, but he never left. It is only one of the reasons why so many people have concerns about him as a potential house guest. Rich has blogged the postseasons of the Flyers and Eagles. E-mail Rich at hofmanr@phillynews.com

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