Predicting the Phillies roster, Version 2.0
CLEARWATER, Fla. — The Phillies do not leave Florida for another 17 days. That is, in Grapefruit League parlance, a long time. A really long time. Many teams have played skeleton lineups during the first portion of the exhibition schedule, a fact that can skew spring statistics, which are inherently questionable.
That is just a roundabout way of saying this newest roster projection is, well, subject to change.
We made our first roster guess three weeks ago, before Brock "Babe" Stassi assaulted the Grapefruit League with a barrage of home runs. Stassi, a 27-year-old former 33rd-round pick who has never played in the majors, is the most dramatic story of the Phillies' spring. That should indicate how uneventful the spring has been to this point.
The rebuilding Phillies are fine with that.
STARTING PITCHERS (5)
Jeremy Hellickson
Jerad Eickhoff
Clay Buchholz
Vince Velasquez
Aaron Nola
No change here, except for the order. This is how the rotation, barring injury, will look.
RELIEVERS (7)
Jeanmar Gomez
Joaquin Benoit
Hector Neris
Edubray Ramos
Pat Neshek
Joely Rodriguez
Luis Garcia
Garcia has pitched well, and the groans from Philadelphia are audible. The Phillies have always liked his arm, an arm that has not demonstrated consistent results in the majors. But he's throwing a splitter this spring, a pitch that boosted Neris, and the initial returns are encouraging. That would push him into the bullpen, over a second lefthanded reliever.
CATCHERS (2)
Cameron Rupp
Andrew Knapp
Well, here we go. There are about a dozen different roster scenarios starting here, and all of them are plausible. Three catchers, with a veteran helping to guide a young staff? Are there at-bats in the majors for Knapp? Could he go the minors as a backup? Are there even at-bats for him there? Can he play first base, a position that has not been kind to him in early Grapefruit League action? What is the meaning of life?
INFIELDERS (6)
Tommy Joseph
Cesar Hernandez
Maikel Franco
Freddy Galvis
Andres Blanco
Jesmuel Valentin
This projection may not be popular. Look, Brock Stassi has done everything he could possibly do to make the Phillies. If decisions were made solely on spring numbers without any other roster consequences, he's on the team. For sure.
But life, often, is not fair. It could come down to a scenario like this: Are the Phillies willing to waive, say, Tyler Goeddel, who could be a fourth outfielder for the major-league minimum for the next three seasons, to put a 27-year-old minor-leaguer who plays a non-premium position on the roster? The Phillies invested a whole season in Goeddel. The guess here is the team tells Stassi to go to triple-A Lehigh Valley, keep producing as the designated hitter, and see if the roster situation changes by May 1. That way, both Goeddel and Stassi remain in the organization. This is a front office that has preached the value of depth.
It would not be surprising, either, to see the Phillies trade someone from the 40-man roster for a younger player/players who does/do not yet need to be protected.
There are so few candidates for removal from the 40-man roster, which is why Valentin now appears on the bench. He's on the 40-man roster. He's had a decent spring. He, in a pinch, could play shortstop. Is it ideal? No. But the Phillies have a roster construction that does not allow them to operate in ideal circumstances. Too many worthy players is not a bad thing. The backup first base options are plenty, in Blanco, Knapp, Howie Kendrick and even Franco.
OUTFIELDERS (5)
Howie Kendrick
Odubel Herrera
Michael Saunders
Aaron Altherr
Chris Coghlan
Coghlan has not had a great spring. He's starting at second base Wednesday night, a sign that the Phillies want to test how versatile he really is. This is the eternal March question: Do you judge a player on his decent track record or his supbar spring? The guess here is that Coghlan is still on the roster, even with a $3 million salary once his contract is purchased. He can play five positions. That is valuable, especially because Altherr could be used often as a defensive replacement in either of the corners.
This scenario has the Phillies adding one player (Coghlan) who is not on the 40-man roster. That would put someone like Adam Morgan on the bubble.
There are still 17 Grapefruit League games to play. It'll be interesting to see how this unfolds.