Phillies belong in the basement right now
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Phillies belong in the basement right now
Last place is the last place you want to be even in the middle of April.
But that's where the Phillies stand in the National League East, a division they have dominated for the last five seasons.
They begin a four-game series Thursday night in San Diego in last place and it is the exact place they deserve to be right now.
They have played four series and lost three of them.
They lost two out of three to the Pittsburgh Pirates, a team that is last in baseball in runs scored.
They lost two out of three at home to the New York Mets, the team that just about everybody believes will finish last in N.L. East.
They lost two out of three to the San Francisco Giants even though they had a starting pitcher provide them with 10 scoreless innings Wednesday night at AT&T Park.
Those are the kinds of efforts that anchor a team at the bottom of a division.
Everybody knew when the Phillies left spring training that they were flawed, but it's different when you actually see it.
The Pirates have the worst offense in baseball, but the Phillies without Ryan Howard and Chase Utley are only slightly better.
When manager Charlie Manuel tries to inject some offense, he does so at the risk of exposing players with defensive shortcomings.
Placido Polanco's slumping bat was left in the rack Wednesday night against the Giants, but that meant Ty Wigginton had to defend at third base while Laynce Nix played first. A normally outstanding infield defense instantly becomes mediocre at best.
Wigginton made the 11th-inning error that allowed the Giants to pull out a 1-0 victory that Matt Cain deserved every bit as much as Cliff Lee.
Charlie Manuel had a chance to be the man to make a difference, but he defied conventional wisdom by letting a left-handed hitter face a left-handed pitcher when he had the option to do otherwise.
With Carlos Ruiz at third base and one out in the top of the 11th, Manuel sent up Jim Thome to hit for Lee, who had provided the Phillies with one of the most memorable pitching performances in franchise history during a game that was played at a pace that defied television-commercial delays.
When Giants manager Bruce Bochy replaced righthander Sergio Romo with lefty Javier Lopez, Manuel had two decent options: Polanco or John Mayberry Jr.
They'd be better options, of course, if they were not both mired in early-season slumps. Manuel explained after the game that he thought Thome was his best option to drive a fly ball deep for a sacrifice fly. He recited Thome's numbers against Lopez and noted he had put the ball in play eight times in 11 at-bats.
Not this time, however. Thome struck out, Mayberry hit for Juan Pierre and grounded out softly to end the top of the 11th. Wigginton's error was followed by Melky Cabrera's game-winning hit to right field off Antonio Bastardo.
Polanco was 1-for-7 against Lopez, but had never struck out against him and is still a better option to make contact than Thome. Mayberry had never faced Lopez until the at-bat after Thome struck out and his weak grounder to shortstop would not have plated the run.
You can't win if you can't score and it does not appear as if the Phillies' struggle for runs is going to end any time in the near future.
That's the main reason they are in last place for the first time since April 20, 2007 and it has to be the main topic of discussion when general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. and his band of decision makers are behind closed doors.
Great starting pitching and the schedule are the two things the Phillies have in their favor as they attempt to escape their unfamiliar place in the standings. They play eight of their next 11 games against the Padres and Chicago Cubs, who are a combined 6-19. Three games against a good Arizona Diamondbacks club are sandwiched in between.
After a nine-game stretch against division rivals — three in Atlanta, three in Washington and three at home against the Mets — the Phillies play seven games against the Padres, Houston Astros and Cubs, who may be the three worst teams in the National League.
The latter stretch ends May 18 and if the Phillies are still in last place then, this team will have more flaws and issues than we ever could have imagined.
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the sky is falling, the sky is falling!— pbuscio- Only one way out of this predicament.
UP.— 24sDad 
Comment removed.- @theGuy: Realist. At the end of the season it wasn't about 'standings' it was sudden death. We all joined together in the death part. Pretty real.
Right now, a little blind optimism wouldn't hurt anybody. Everyone treats this team as though the bottom is out of the boat. On July 17th, when they are 17 games out, and trade Lee and Halladay to build around Hamels a totally new club, and fire Manuel, and re-assign RAJ, then we can talk about winners and losers in this never ending argument. Until then, we're all speculators, some blinder than others.— 24sDad - Who didn't see this coming? Amaro made basically no changes to an offense that could not score one run for Roy in the final playoff game, then lost Utley and Howard, and loaded with junk-pile journeymen. Add Charlie as manager who needs a three run homer to win, and you have a recipe that cooks up just like it has.— bmcw
- Agreed. The writing has been on the wall for anyone to see since 2010. The Phillies are an aging lineup scoring less runs and the GM does nothing to address it. — F. Harry Stowe
- +1. The "oh wait a minute, Utley's knees are still bad?!" epiphany after a 5-month offseason, and whoever's genius idea it was to have Howard running around doing drills 4 months after Achilles surgery, were the 2 last straws.
During the offseason I was accused by some on here of not doing jumping jacks over the moves to add castoffs like Thome and Laynce Nix. The same superfans praising those as non-sexy but critical moves are now left saying things like "It's only April!" Well guess what, they're not going to be scoring runs in May or June or September, either. Regardless if the team is coming off 7 straight division titles or 7 straight losing seasons, they did nothing to truly get better in the winter, and my disappointment was the same regardless if it's 2012 with a $170 million payroll or 1995 with a $40 million payroll. I'll still follow the Phillies because I have my whole life. But anyone thinking this is just going to work itself out and they'll be pounding teams come summertime is just delusional - For starters, I was no fan of adding Thome and Nix. (Wigginton was a reasonable add -- a bench guy with pop who can play multiple positions where we might need backup.) And I do not believe that it will just work itself out; it needs fixing... But I have not seen one medical opinion that says Howard shouldn't have been active 4 months post-surgery. Have you? Please cite. His activities seem in line with the original projected timeline in his case and in the cases of other Achilles surgery patients. The point being, SOME things are not anyone's fault -- if you've learned how to control human health and prevent all infection, please share... As for Utley, he struggled last spring and then found an exercise regimen which worked. It allowed him to play the rest of the 2011 season and his offense lifted the Phils' run production to the top of the NL when he was in the lineup. So why in the world would you CHANGE that exercise regimen over the winter? Utley didn't. And it simply didn't work again. Maybe this new plan will help, maybe it won't. Again, sometimes human health is not under our control. Yes, you'd say that Amaro could foresee this potentiality. Sure. But then do you sign or trade for another top-flight 2B? Where does that money come from? (Even if you go cheap in the bullpen -- which could have been leading to different losses right now -- that money would have to go to an outfielder.) Who has the luxury to pay two top starters at one position? I've yet to see the alternative plan detailed by anyone on these boards. — PhilaLogic
- Some citations below, both medical and sports related. I'm not a doctor, but the data suggests he was at least a month early, and that doesn't account for the fact that he's a 250lb man.
As for Utley, he hit .250 last year. I'm not going to credit him for lifting the Phils to the top of the NL. The guy has CHRONIC knee problems that aren't going away. Since you ask, MY plan would've been to not sign a closer to the richest deal in history and instead focus on bats. The ballpark has been sold out for 4 years now and they stand to get a ginormous windfall of cash when the TV deal expires in a couple years (a la Angels and Rangers). If money is an object, I'm wasting my time rooting for this team
http://www.lowerextremityreview.com/article/strategies-for-rehab-after-achilles-tendon-surgery
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/03/31/typical-time-of-return-from-ruptured-achilles-is-11-months/ - Thanks for your factual reply. It advances the conversation much more rapidly.... Re Howard: One, NFL activity is something else altogether and not relevant. Two, the first link ambiguously notes "return to activity" after surgery as 18-26 weeks. But this can only mean return to full, aggressive activity, because there are many PT activities which it specifies as taking place well before that window. Other links (even webMD) mention 26 weeks/6 months as the usual full recovery. Here's one example: www.med.umich.edu/ortho/patient/pdf/ACHILLES-TENDON.pdf. More to the point, Howard did not re-injure his Achilles. He developed an infection, and the document you cited notes that this is not uncommon a month or longer after Achilles surgery. Howard was following the protocol with light physical activity at 4 months out. — PhilaLogic
- Re Utley, his OPS last year was in the top tier of all 2B and the Phillies' offense, which had ranked near the bottom of the NL, was #1 in the league after his return in May. Yes, he has a chronic condition. But he played out the season under a regimen that seemed to work. To then go out and sign or trade for another starting 2B, and carry both salaries, would be impossible. No 2B, nor any 1B, would sign to be a starter with Utley OK over the winter and Howard expected to return in May.
The money could have gone to bolster the offense with a starting LF, but then you're giving up on Mayberry -- figuring his return to part-time status upon Howard's return. They could have signed a starting 3B and relegated Polanco to the bench. But not both additions -- unless they also went without an elite closer as well as without a reliable shortstop. But each of those choices could be causing defeats now, especially if, say, we got Joe Nathan on the cheap and he was blowing saves. I'm all for upping the payroll to $200 million and spending that TV deal money now, but that's not the gripe I hear. Many instead portray the off-season fixes as easy, but they don't add up the dollars nor do they acknowledge the impossibility of managing a situation where two star hitters might contribute a ton, or very little. I can think of several failed moves by Amaro, but the larger culprit here is age and injury -- and the fact that stocking up on veterans to make the playoffs 5 years in a row will always come at a cost.— PhilaLogic - Fair enough all around. Personally, instead of 4yrs $50 million on a guy who pitches 1 inning every few days, and instead of another 3 years and $33 on the .250 leadoff hitter, I would've inked that 6yr $100 mil deal for Reyes in a heartbeat. Miami (another cash windfall team) is only paying him $10mil each of the first two years, by the time the big money kicks in the Phillies Comcast deal would be up and the Baby Aces would be up also
- That's a choice worthy of discussion. Let's stipulate that Reyes is a good team guy and that we wouldn't have had to outbid Miami by too much. Even if Reyes declines some, his production would be greater than Rollins' this year and more so the next two as Rollins ages. But if the trade-off is no elite closer in 2012, the added offense (and improved future) MIGHT wind up costing the 2012 club a title. For I'm of the school that an elite closer is almost always vital to winning a World Series.
See this 2009 article: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/267053-does-a-team-really-need-a-dominant-closer-to-win-the-world-series ... Or, simply analyze the post-season failures of the 1991-2005 Braves. And their one success, when Wohlers was flawless as a closer.
For over 15 years, champions have received amazing performances from their closers in the post-season. And most have been established guys or dominant rookies (no Jenks or Wainwright on the horizon for the Phillies). The Cardinals' Motte was an exception last season.
I think this point is even more true if teams have great starting pitching and play low-scoring games. Reyes' added production, over Rollins', wouldn't have altered that formula very much... Anyway, it's worthy of debate.
— PhilaLogic - Citing Bleacherreport really? My content is published but I don't go quoting it on message boards. Your whole argument hinges on Papelbon being a "dominant closer." I say, look at how each of the last 3 Red Sox seasons have ended, and look at his 2010 (or 2009? it's friday) season when he couldn't get anybody out. I know last September he basically shook off everything but a fastball late in the year, and he got torched for it. I see him throwing 93mph this year, and I still say... talk to me in October. We'll see if he's a "dominant closer."
- Of course Amaro and everyone saw the Phillies had an offense that would struggle, but it's worse at the moment than they or we imagined, and please stop referencing NLDS Game 5. That had just as much to do with Carpenter pitching the game of his life—the '27 Yankees weren't going to score off him—as it had to do with the Phillies offense.
The problems with the Phillies are fixable, and in all likelihood they will walk away with another division title and advance farther in the playoffs this year than they have the past few. (Anyone disagree with me, talk to me in October.)
The biggest problems facing the Phillies
1) Charlie Manuel
While he is well-liked by the players, it's his decisions that have cost this team from winning more titles. (Why was Roy Halladay not pitched with the season on the line TWICE in a row? 2010 NLCS game 4; 2011 NLDS game 4? Or Cliff Lee in 2009? And he needs to stop tinkering with the lineup and being "loyal".
2) Jim Thome
He's a great guy, loved him throughout his career and have always rooted for him, but he looks done. He hasn't connected squarely on anything—not even foul balls—which shows his bat speed has lost its bite. Hope he can turn it around, but until he does, he should NEVER come to the plate with the game on the line. (Cliff Lee was a better offensive option than Thome last night, and at least a righty to face Lopez. Has ANY left-handed hitter from the Phillies gotten a hit off him since he's been in SF? Not that I remember.)
Got more to say, but got work to do.— Eilex826
