Over the last two years, Domonic Brown has been better at baseball than Delmon Young
What if I told you that, according to virtually every objective measure available to us, Dom Brown has been a better baseball player than Delmon Young over the last two seasons?
Over the last two years, Domonic Brown has been better at baseball than Delmon Young
I'm already on record as saying that the Delmon Young signing makes some sense for the Phillies. At $750,000, there is not a lot of downside.
That being said, there is some downside, and that downside is the potential that the signing of Young precludes Domonic Brown from entering a season with the confidence that comes with knowing that he has a regular major league job. Now, I know there is a faction of Phillies fans that is suffering from Dom Brown fatigue. That faction would likely argue that 422 plate appearances is as much of an opportunity as most players can hope for at the major league level. And in the 422 plate appearances that Brown has logged over the last couple of seasons, he hasn't put up the numbers that you would expect out of a prospect who was as highly touted as he was.
But do me a favor and forget about the expectations for a moment. Instead of comparing Brown to the player you were led to believe he would be, why not compare him to the player who the Phillies just signed to replace him as their top option in right field heading into spring training.
What if I told you that, according to virtually every objective measure available to us, Dom Brown has been a better baseball player than Delmon Young over the last two seasons?
Over the last two years, Brown has 21 doubles, 3 triples, 10 home runs, 46 walks and 2 hit by pitches in 422 plate appearances. That means he has produced a total of 194 bases in 422 plate appearances (two bases for a double, three for triple, one for a walk, etc.). That's an average of 0.46 bases per plate appearances. Over the last two seasons, Delmon Young has produced an average of 0.43 bases per plate appearance.
Power? Young has the edge in home runs, averaging one every 34.9 at bats, while Brown checks in at one every 37.1 at bats. But Brown has an edge in extra base hits, averaging one every 10.9 ABs, with Young checking in at one every 13.1 ABs. Of Brown's 89 hits, 38 percent have gone for extra bases. Of Young's 280 hits, 29 percent have gone for extra bases.
Contact? Brown has struck out in 16 percent of his plate appearances. Young has struck out in 18 percent of his PAs. Advantage: Brown.
RBIs? Young has the edge there, averaging one every 8.1 plate appearances (Brown: 9.4 PAs). But Brown has scored runs at a higher rate, because he reaches base more (one every 8.6 PAs compared to one every 10.3 PAs for Young). And since RBIs and runs both equal the same number on the scoreboard, it is worth noting that Brown has produced an RBI or a run every 5.0 PAs, while Young has done so every 5.1 PAs. So even if you believe that runs and RBIs are valid metrics to measure performance, Brown has the slight edge there.
So what am I missing? Brown reaches base more, creates more bases with his hits, strikes out less, and produces runs at a higher rate. Over the course of a 600 plate appearance season, at the rates both players posted in 2011 and 2012, Young would give you a grand total of 2 more home runs, 30 more singles and 11 more RBIs at the expense of 40 more walks/HBPs, 4 more doubles, 3 more triples, 8 fewer strikeouts, 10 fewer double plays, and 12 more runs scored.
Again, at the rates both players have posted over the last two seasons, this is how a season of 600 plate appearances would look:
Domonic Brown: 600 PAs, 195 times on base, 14 home runs, 30 doubles, 4 triples, 98 strikeouts, 64 RBIs, 70 runs, 11 GIDPs.
Delmon Young: 600 PAs, 179 times on base, 16 home runs, 26 doubles, 1 triple, 106 strikeouts, 75 RBIs, 58 runs, 21 GIDPs.
Really, the best anybody can say for Young is that the two players' production has been similar. The big difference, of course, is that we at least have enough of a sample size to say that Young can be expected to give the Phillies mediocre production. Maybe you think we have enough of a sample size to say the same thing about Brown, and that he has already peaked at 24 years old, and that Young after seven years in the majors has more upside.
I'm just not sure that it makes sense to give Delmon Young his fourth opportunity to fulfil his potential before giving Domonic Brown his first real one.
great arguments Dave, really good read. I think the argument for young is basically if you consider the raw triple crown numbers without looking any deeper - higher average, more dingers, more ribbies. Any chance we could get an answer from the phillies front office that is anything other than an appeal to authority?— mjb12981- Didn't Young have health problems the last 2 years? And aside from that, the only reason Brown is above Young is because we can only use a 2 year sample. If we were comparing him against an equal to Brown with 4 years of service, would Young still come out on the bottom?
I mean, Brown has yet to even prove he can handle big league pitching. Young has already proven it. So basically the question is, do we go the guy who looks completely over matched or the guy who can hit, but has struggled recently?
Well if you ask me, Brown IS Young the last 2 years. Both of them struggled, but at least one actually has proven he can be better.
How in the world do you trust a guy who has yet to hit over .230 in the majors over a guy who has a .284 lifetime average in the majors?
We need a guy who can move runners. Brown can't do that.— MFPhils - In conclusion, we've determined that Brown is barely comparable, when at his best, to Delmon Young, when he's at his worst.
I'm not saying it will be that way this year. Brown may finally find his stride, but he has to earn it.
I wonder how many starting pitchers you could compare to Roy Halladay last year that would never be as good on their best days.
Proven talent is the only thing that matters in sports. If Brown wants it, he's gonna have to own it.— MFPhils - Good points but I would add what appears to be the obvious flaw with Dom, that being he just does not appear to me to have his head in the game or maybe better yet a head for the game. It is like he has a hitch in his git along, has to think first ,hesitates and then acts.Some else called it daydreaming and some would say that is lack of experience but after this long I think it is just a shortcoming for him. You can have the tools but not have the instincts to play at the MLB level and it is not something that is taught, you either have it or you don't. I am trying to think of a few good examples of other guys like this and there have been many. Maybe someone else could drop a few names of similar guys if anyone else agrees with my perspective. Please don't confuse this with dumb, he is not dumb just slow or distracted or what ever term you want to call it.
— DUDESKINS - MFPhils, -- when you have to add 600,000 in incentives based on Young making a certain weight, I don't think that we can expect Young's best days to be ahead of him. He is only 27 and is a whopping 240 lbs at 6'3. That would be fine if he was a linebacker, but it doesn't inspire much confidence if he has to run down any balls in the gap. — catnameddomino
- Murph, this is infinitely better than the hatchet job you had up this morning, Glad to see that gone. You need to step away from the cabal that runs coaches and players out of town.
— ngfs66 - C'mon, ngfs, it's the philly sportshacks's "job" to see if they can whip up enough animosity among the "fans" to try to run people out of town. That's what they do. That's what they've done since at least 1950!
GOOD GRIEF!— BEMiller - Oh, please, name one player or coach that has been run out of town by the writers. There aren't any. — mike l
Must give credit where credit is due. While omitting the key fact that the Phillies now have the worst defensive outfielder in the NL, Murphy for once does renounce his waterboy persona and point out the glaring incompetence that is typical of Ruin Tomorrow Jr.'s job performance.
This is a start. Hopefully sometime before opening day we'll see a post that debunks the hitting guru myth.
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- One of the real problem's for hitting instructors (whether gurus or not) and teachers in the general, is that people are always trying to evaluate their performance based on what the pupils do. Thus, if the pupils don't want to use the instructor's comments to advantage, there will be no improvement of the pupil's performance. — BEMiller
- A good teacher, and certainly a guru, captivates his student's interest. Otherwise, he's just some guy talking.
(But thanks for the respectful tone.)
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- That should be as plain as the nose on one's face, but goes way over the dim bulb that is Ruben Amaro Jr. who in a radio interview today said he doesn't care about that stuff, he cares about "production" and "RBIs". It is so sad that we are saddled with a GM who doesn't understand the basic fundamental truth about baseball, i.e. making outs at a high rate is bad-- a fundamental truth that Clueless Rube openly scoffs at.— jtj06
- well written. Some good points. Thanks.
— 76er - I really think Amaro set Brown back with the Pence debacle. If you remember 2011 or just go back and look at the numbers, Brown was coming into his own right on schedule as a regular in July. He had a hit almost .300 that month and was getting on base at close to a .400 clip. The Phillies were solidly in first place and were in an almost ideal situation to break a guy into the big leagues. And then Amaro went out and got Pence, who wasn't a difference maker, didn't do anything in the post season, and certainly wasn't the reason they stayed in first place the rest of the way. Up until that point, Brown's career was a steady, upward trajectory like you'd draw it up on draft day. Other than my opinion that I generally feel that Amaro is grossly incompetent, I don't understand why he sold the farm for an expensive and at best marginally better outfielder, when Brown was doing fine.— jtj06
- When a guy signs a deal that nearly doubles in value so long as he doesn't get too fat, how can you not jump at the chance? It's a low risk deal, but it's time to give Brown a real shot.— JSaq
