Negotiating 101
The latest Phillies and baseball news from Philly.com.
Negotiating 101
Matt Gelb
(Yong Kim/Staff Photographer)
MIAMI — The Phillies have not traded Cole Hamels. They have not traded Shane Victorino, Joe Blanton, Hunter Pence, Ty Wigginton, Juan Pierre or Cliff Lee.
The rumor du jour — and be ready for this, because it'll be a long July — was the Phillies were at least listening to potential offers for anything and anyone. Well that makes perfect sense. These Phillies are 11 games back and nine games under .500. It's harder to believe a run will happen by the day.
But the Phillies will not be trading any major piece anytime soon. It's as simple as that.
These "calls" that are being reported could very well go as such (and there are indications they sounded like this).
AMARO: "Hello, Team X. We're really in a hole and assessing our options. So, hypothetically, what would you offer should Cole Hamels become available?"
TEAM X: "What sort of package are you looking for?"
AMARO: "The sun, stars, and moon."
TEAM X: "We would certainly be interested, but not at that price. Come back to us later when we know who else is available and what other teams are buying."
OK, maybe Ruben Amaro Jr. sounded different, but you have the idea. The Phillies will set their sights high early in trade talks. It does not mean they will make a trade or receive what they want. It means nothing.
Why?
Well, firstly, Hamels' value is totally dependent on the rest of the market. If the Milwaukee Brewers decline to make Zack Greinke available, then Hamels' worth shoots up because he's the only elite pitcher available. If the New York Yankees decide a rash of injuries to their staff necessitate the acquisition of another top arm, then Hamels' worth shoots up because teams must outbid the Yankees.
But none of this is known on July 2, with 29 days until the deadline.
There also remains a possibility — more realistic than some are led to believe — the Phillies retain Hamels. In a Sunday column, I wrote the Phillies can and should sign him. But they must decide whether they are true players for his services before July 31. If they aren't, trade him for the best available package.
Still, remember, what the best available hitter on last year's market (Carlos Beltran) fetched: One top prospect. Beltran was a rental, much like Hamels. Both are not eligible for draft-pick compensation. Hamels may be a more valuable player than Beltran, but we are not comparing players. We are comparing markets.
Could this summer's market offer more in return? No one knows. Hence, what is the harm in calling other teams to ascertain the current value their potential trade chips? None.
Just make sure it is placed in the proper context.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
Comments (54)
Trade Pence and Vic for bacon and eggs. Bacon > Pence.— palmyra21- It's amazing that when the Phils acquired Oswalt & Pence during the season... The Phils had to part with all top of the line prospects. Now Hamels, who is a much better asset than either Oswalt or Pence, won't command is strong a deal? Maybe the other GM's also thing Amaro is a shmuck!!— FetchDixon
- @fetch...perhaps it also has to do with the fact that both Owalt and Pence were under team control for 1.5 years instead of 2 months, AND that with the new CBA any team that acquires Hamels and then loses him in free agency will not receive draft pick compensation (a player must be with a team an entire season before it receives compensation). Just a different market and landscape of baseball. Has little to do with how Amaro is appreciated (or unappreciated) by his colleagues. — Eilex826
- Trade him by 7/31, get two prospects, then sign him back as a FA this Christmas since this year is toast anyway.— Bobby G
- Trading Hamels doesn't preclude the possibility that they could sign a free agent pitcher in the off-season for less money who could provide them with just as many wins as Hamels would give them. If they could get a good third baseman for Hamels I'd do it.— Russ
- Fetch, Who said Hamels isnt going to get top prospects? We would get atleast 3 stud prospects from him if not more. I dont see anywhere in the article that says anything less.— CSpangler
- So, the GM trades Lee to Seattle when Halladay was acquired missing a return trip to the WS. But then you had to trade & get Oswalt. Then Amoro gets lucky & gets Lee back. The contracts to Utley & Howard were worth the risk but what is absolutely dumb founding is not picking up a Willingham, Cuddyer, giving Rollins a dumb contract and then you get no bullpen help yet give a closer $50 million. Then you couldn't work out a deal for your #1 pitcher whom grew up in your organization and now his value has gone up so it will probably cost you an extra $10 million than it would have if he got a deal done in the off season. Have the Phillies become the Cubs? It looks that way.— Jay25
- Hamels is not signed long term, so he is worth less on the trade market than Lee, who needs a change of scenery. Victorino isn't signed, either so same with him. Rollins just signed so he is worth more prospects. I am not saying to trade any of them because I think once this team gets healthy, they could make a run at a wild card, at least. They should sign Hamels and Victorino right now and let the team, as constructed fight it out one more time.— Paul SoTX
- Every time you guys say "nothing is happening now" - someone is traded. I just pray is isn't Hamels. If you are building a team (which is the noise all of you writers are making right now), you begin with....anyone?...class? RIGHT! Pitching and defense. Good answer. There is NO BETTER pitcher "available" than Cole Hamels. DON'T DO IT, RUBEN! If you thought the fallout from trading Cliff Lee was bad, if you trade Cole, you'd better go to the shelter.— dwp66
- This will Make or break Amaro. Cole's value has grown by at least $10 million since the offseason. Amaro was phenomenal getting Halladay but then he stupidly dealt Lee which led to having to send prospect for Oswalt & contributed to not making it back to the WS. Then the errors of this offseason. So it's make or break time before we become the Chicago Cubs.— Jay25
- FetcDixon...Oswalt and Pence were under club control for another year. They weren't going to be free agents at the end of the year. That's the difference. A team isn't going to give up a ton if Hamels could walk at the end of the year. If he had aother year on hi contract, the Phillies would be able to get a lot more.— mvp15
- As a 10 an 5 player, Rollins now has a full no-trade clause. I doubt he would be willing to waive it.— mvp15
- How can you spend all that money on players that are HALF— Trot
- How can you spend all that money on players that are HALF— Trot
- Trot, you posted twice and neither post makes any sense.— blaqjaq
- Time to bring up Sandberg. Chawlie has no control over this team. Jimmie keeps jogging.— wo_fat
- obviously any trade for Hamels would be a sign and trade with the prevailing team precluded from the NTC,.....it would be the only way to obtain full value of a solid major-leaguer, and major league-ready prospect and a mid-level prospect,....for a hypothetical example: Texas - Elvis Andrus ss, Olt 3rd base prospect, and midlevel,.....if you traded Hamels any other way, you wouldn't obtain any value for your return, but you would however, be able to bring him back in the off-season— SyddBarrett
- Nobody wants Rollins' contract. Get that through your thick skull.— hunglikeaton
- I am sad to say, Even though I like the guy AMARO MUST GO !
Every year he has been in charge the team has gotten worse
and they are spending more, I have many examples of his faults
but getting rid of Hamels is the worse. AMARO NUST GO and take charlie with you— wildgreenman - to the idiots who can't read, or simply don't understand, Pence and Oswalt were under contract for the year they were traded, and the following year (in Pence's case, 2 more years). Hammels is under contract for 1/2 season. Now do you see the differnce in price?— jeff gross
- Is anyone but me shocked Tony LaRussa didn't select the self-proclaimed "hitting guru" as one of his coaches for the NL All-Star squad? I mean the boob won 102 games last season and bragged about it all winter to anyone dumb enough to listen.— Wilhelm Von Humboldt
- Who in their right mind would take Lee with his massive back end-loaded contract and his declining stats?— Xyzzyx
- Trading Cole make sense now if he is not going to sign. Mets got a great pitching prospect for 10 weeks of Beltran. Trading Victorino makes sense only if you have agood replacement. Phills dont. I would not figure Mayberry. JMJ is a 220 hitter vrs. righthanders. He does not figure to get better as his batting approach works against him. JMJ is very smooth in the field but you only get points for that in dancing. JMJ is a good fielder Shane is a very good one. JMJ has value as a platoon player aganst lefties. Im hoping Amaro does not make any desperation moves. Few will agree but selling Qualls was a desperation move... Amaro takes heat for this teams failure. I would agree if you could forsee the injuries. The heat should come for gutting the teams future, d'Arnaud, Singelton, Cosart have star potential. Then maybe not.— Don w
- Comparing Hamels to Beltran in each years market is apples and oranges. Beltran was a player in his mid 30's (34 I think he was last year) who had (and has) a long history of being injured plus a reputation of hot and cold. He was a player who truly was being pursued and subsequently acquired to be a rental player. There was no chance Beltran was going to get a mega year deal in the offseason at his age and with his history of injuries. Free agent to be players in their mid 30's with a history of injuries just dont command several top prospects....no matter how talented. Teams dont overpay for players like that because of the risk of injury to that player, their age, plus their intent isnt to keep them long term. A player like Hamels will be traded for with the intent of the team who gets him to keep him long term and wants the inside track, and will feel they have a great chance to keep him long term and work something out. Not often does a 27 year old pitcher who is entering his prime, has a world series MVP and ring, plenty of postseason experience, and been one of the top starters for the last several years (tho his team didnt support him with runs) AND is a lefty with a pretty good non injury history and has proven durable. To say because Beltran commanded only one top prospect means Hamels will command the same.....hardly! Remember, apples and oranges.— Big D phillies fan
- Amazing how quickly the wheels fall off in professional sports. It seems like just yesterday the Phillies had one of the most dominate starting rotations in baseball history. Now "fire sale" is all everybody is talking about. Frankly I hope they don't pull a Florida Marlins. The team is not in financial trouble and are riddled with injuries. If it was up to me I would trade Lee for some great prospects and sign Hamels to a long term deal. Bring up Sandberg to breathe some life into the team. Howard will hopefully be back and the team needs him badly. I still cannot figure out why Pierre is not batting leadoff. Jroll works for the phillies, not the other way around.— bobf876
- Jay25 sums it up great. Amaro's made some moves everyone likes because it involved spending a lot of money on "can't miss" vets. When it comes to anything else he's pretty awful. When it turns out some of those "can't miss" guys do miss, and miss horribly like Utley, Howard, and now Lee it magnifies how inept Amaro is at filling out a roster. His 50 million closer was inexplicable when they knew the lineup would have huge holes. Finally he overpays for everything which adds up on the payroll and other teams treating him like a sucker. Fire Amaro and the senile old guy on the bench.— lazyboy
- This team all year has shown no signs of life and yet the GM does nothing about it? Bring up some players with energy from AA or AAA!!! Trade a Victorino or Polanco. Utley and Howard will not be able to save this team this year or in 2013. I think the Phils are already becoming the Cubs. Charlie has already given up by saying he doesn't know what else to do. Fire Charlie and get Ryno in here and get him Jimmy Williams as his bench coach!!! Jimmy Williams pretty much managed the team while he was here since Charlie has no clue about running a NL team (that's why he took off after 08 since the Phils were not paying him squat).— tralala
Comment removed.- Dismantle time...and we are still formidable. Victorino- LAD, Hamels- SD, Blanton- NYY; Bastardo- Toronto. Bring up Cloyd & Gilles....Get Headley, Gardner, et al, top prospects and draft choices.— ginzo
- Amaro traded Cliff Lee to Seattle for 3 stiffs a couple years ago. At least Ed Wade in Houston got some good players from the Phillies when trading Pence and Oswalt.— zeke128
- amaro don't know nuthin about talent or evaluating players...this is the guy who gave away a dozen prospects but retained "untouchable" Brown,,,who got nothing for trading Lee at his peak.. who gives $7.6 million to a talent-less pitcher who can't relieve or start (Kendrick), who commits to a roster spot for awful Herndon, all while discarding late-bloomers like Vogelsong and Grilli for nothing because they had "no name"... in 3 1/2 years amaro has acquired or developed literally zero young talent with star potential to retain in organizaton ..here's a guy who re-sign or acquires washed up, declining and/or overrated Moyer, Blanton, Ibanez, Polanco, Howard, Oswalt, Pence, Rollins, Papelbon and trash like Kendrick, Schneider, Qualls, Baez, Bruntlett, Bowker, Gload, etc... is this the man you want in charge of "rebuilding"?— warbiscuit
- Puh-lease! Stop with the Jason Grilli B.S. The guy not only did not have a name he had a decade long record that was pedestrian at best (4.40 ERA DFA'd by Colorado after a hideous 2009)...no way was he a "late-bloomer" he has performed OK this year, but is hardly worthy of the value to ascribe to him on a daily basis...Frankly, he was the not even the pitching equivalent of Ross Gload. Hey, I get you have a pathological aversion to RAJ, but don't prop up your argument by citing the likes of Jason Grilli who is exactly the kind of player you mock every damn day in this forum. — Nigel#1
- Let's not get crazy about "becoming the Cubs." They have 5 straight division titles and a World Series title. When did the Cubs do that? The comparison is more like the Braves. All those division titles and only one World Series. However, the Braves have re-tooled and are now in the mix again.
A point on what we would get for Hamels; IN 2008, the Indians traded Sabathia to the Brewers. CC was in the last year of his contract and was the reigning Cy Young award winner. None of the four prospects have made an impact and it has been 4 seasons.— NMPartners - Logically, Cole is not enamored with the direction the team is going. He is a businessman first. The team has treated him "all business' when the shoe was on the other foot. His round table of advisers remind him of this often. This is bittersweet for him, no doubt. But business is business as the team has told him the past. Therefore,only an overwhelming offer keeps him here, so unless that is forthcoming real soon,.... targeting Yankees, Dodgers, Giants and perhaps Arizona is best strategy for a trade. The Braves,Marlins,and Nationals will swoop in as soon as free agency is available. So pick your poison Mr. Amaro. Select a player or two that will help us i.e. third base and pitching during next few years. No more free advice!— leecee
- Logically, Cole is not enamored with the direction the team is going. He is a businessman first. The team has treated him "all business' when the shoe was on the other foot. His round table of advisers remind him of this often. This is bittersweet for him, no doubt. But business is business as the team has told him the past. Therefore,only an overwhelming offer keeps him here, so unless that is forthcoming real soon,.... targeting Yankees, Dodgers, Giants and perhaps Arizona is best strategy for a trade. The Braves,Marlins,and Nationals will swoop in as soon as free agency is available. So pick your poison Mr. Amaro. Select a player or two that will help us i.e. third base and pitching during next few years. No more free advice!— leecee
- I think most fans are missing the aspect of whether or not Hamels "wants" to stay in Philly. He may have already told RAJ he wants to move west where his family is so at this point he's a half year rental. No team is going to give up 3 top prospects to have Hamels for 80 games. Victorino has to go and so does Polly, Pierre, and Blanton. Problem is all 3 hare having sub par years especially Victorino who is a year removed from being an all star. Lee can veto trade to team he doesn't want to go to, nobody wans Rollins and his .260 avg and lack of OBP, Halladay is a ? after his latest injury, Howard is worthless as is Utely. The sad part is that if the pitching was up to last years standard this team would be right in the hunt. Their offense is actually improved in all area's over last years team but Doc and Lee both are down and the bullpen sucks. Oh well its been a great run the past 5 years, just hope they can built somthing quicker than it took last time (1980-2007)— JuanSamuel4prez
- Hamels will fetch a TON. it is ridiculous to think otherwise. Cliff Lee was traded by Seattle two years ago and brought back the #1 first baseman prospect in the minor leagues. Lee was just a rental too and not as young or better than Hamels at the time. There will be no pitcher close to Hamels that will be available at the deadline should the Phillies decide not to sing him. The bottom line: The Phils will get a huge return for him from the highest bidder. Make no mistake about that— matty177
- Wasn't Halladay in the same situation as Hamels and we gave up several strong prospects for him.
- Why would any team give away its' top prospects to rent Hamels for 3 months? Why would Hamels not explore free agency after this season? He has a chance to play for a strong, young team ( see the Dodgers) at his price ($150 million for 7 years). He is in a dream position and everyone knows it.— farley
- Yeesh - I couldn't disagree more - We should stop dreaming - we have ZERO chance at a wild card berth. There are 8 teams ahead of us. There are two spots. The team in the lower of the two spots is playing 538 ball (BTW, 538 is the same % as the lower of the two wild card possibilities in the American League).
So, let's just assume that we need to get to 538 to have a shot.
We're now in 8th place and we need to get to 2nd.
538 ball for 162 games season equals 87 wins.
We now have 36 wins out of the first 81.
Translation - we need to win 51 of the remaining 81 games.
That's 630 ball. 630 ball is better than ANY MLB team played during the first 81 games.
And by the way, we'd also have to somehow hope that all of the teams above us in the wild card race somehow collapse - not just one or two - ALL of them.
Stop dreaming - get yourself a soda or beer, sit on your porch with the transistor radio propped up in the living room window and remember the real golden age of Phillies baseball (the early 70's) and enjoy the team for what it is this year - a below average team that will finish in last or next to last place.
(BTW, unfortunately, Hamels will be traded - it's purrely money - a lot of it - if someone will take his $'s, those dollars drop directly into the waiting hands of the owners. The owners can save $10M (which will buy them alot of nice toys) by letting him go - the only reason to have him is for the post-season - and there's no chance of that this year.— PhillyDanny - Nice post until you get to citing the early 1970's as the "Golden Age" of the franchise! Not sure what team you followed in the early 1970's, but it was not the Phillies who were deplorable in the first half of the decade and I followed them closely! They were a sub .500 team 1970 to 1974 and it was a totally bleak time. To me, they started to turn it around when Jim Lonborg was brought here to compliment Carlton....and they started on the road to respectability. Also- you can't deny this team this run 2007-2011....it truly has been a great run. — Nigel#1
- Sell...sell....sell...sell... anybody watch how they are playing. is the team going to get worse???— Ssteve115
- He would prefer to remain under other circumstances. But it appears that this ship is taking on water faster than my Grandma's basement last Friday night. the injury bug plus less than stellar planning on part of front office for absolutely foreseeable issues have accelerated the decline. As quick as Ryne can be brought in to calm the situation, with a candid, transparent announcement... letting the baseball world know that the Phils are retooling, the better. The team has assets that have to be utilized now. See "Who Moved My Cheese" by Spencer Johnson.— leecee
- I am continuously amazed at the lack of insight offered by the Inq's sportswriters. There was a time when columnists actually wrote good stories about inside 'stuff.' Now all we get are fillers which could have been written by Amaro himself. On another issue, can someone explain to Chris Wheeler that he is not radio broadcasting. Television is visual and demands an economy of words. The guy goes off on peripatetic tangents that results in one's hitting the mute button. Amaro and Manuel are not the only two things that need to go.— DameB
- my exact quote last week: that Qualls could be ok for a smart manager with a strong bullpen like the Yankees to get out an occasional righty, but that for a buffoon like Manuel who doesn't know how to play matchups and misuses his bullpen Qualls was a disaster and waste of a roster spot....Yankees apparently agreed with me..who do you think knows more about baseball --yanks g.m. and manager or the clueless rube and imbecile chollie— warbiscuit
- Remember Matt, when fans comment on this type of thing, we do so because one of your colleagues is writing that the Phils want to trade Hamels. Like you, I can't think of a reason why they wouldn't sign him and pay him like one of the top LH in the game. But the fans didn't make this story up, so we all get that in early July any team that's 36-45 will have rumors about selling. Maybe your article is better suited for other writers, we know the deal.— drbob1
- And what makes Matt Gelb an expert on the 2012 MLB trade market?!? Silly article. For those of you amateur GMs lamenting the propects traded in the Halladay, Oswalt, and Pence deals: Not one has been an impact MLB player so far (and they won't be for 3 more years, if at all). The only reason Cole won't sign here is that HE has chosen not to sign...if you can get MLB-ready players for him, then trade him. And fire Charlie while you are at it, too.— Phront_Runner
- "NMPartners - None of the four prospects have made an impact and it has been 4 seasons."
That's why they're called prospects. Just because none have made an impact at the MLB level doesn't mean they weren't top prospects when they were traded. That's the risk you take when you trade for prospects.
— rudeman - Agreed - I'm by no means an expert - I've never had enough time to dissect all the facts, gyrations and opinions. I'm just a big picture, common sense guy, and the article didn't make much common sense to me.— PhillyDanny
- Big D nowhere did I compare Hamels with Beltran. Just stating what Beltran brought Mets. Wheeler the pitcher the Mets got is considered to have top of the rotation talent. Everything else you blogged I felt was right on the mark. Beltran is having a very good year for another team and the Giants must regret the deal.— Don w
- What I meant by becoming the Cubs was not about winning. It's about having the highest payroll in the NL and coming in last and having $$ invested on guys like Soriano, Webster, etc like we do in Rollins, Blanton, etc.— Jay25
- Bill Campbell just traded for Wheels' rug.... terms not disclosed— stoky
- None of this matters if Manuel stays as the manager— gates2012
- I would prefer the Phillies sign Hamels and rebuild around him. Everyone else should be available for the right price. The problem is that as long as Rube is the GM we can expect 60 cents on the dollar for these trades. If this team is going to rebuild it needs to do so after cleaning house from Rube through the entire coaching staff. Make Gillick the interim GM and bring up Ryne to manage the Phils. The two of them can pick the next coaching staff. Time for the Uncle Cholly bobble-head to enjoy retirement.— coloradoeagle
1
Popular Posts
Classifieds:
Site Services:
Partners:
Powered By:
