Negotiating 101
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Negotiating 101
Matt Gelb
MIAMI — The Phillies have not traded Cole Hamels. They have not traded Shane Victorino, Joe Blanton, Hunter Pence, Ty Wigginton, Juan Pierre or Cliff Lee.
The rumor du jour — and be ready for this, because it'll be a long July — was the Phillies were at least listening to potential offers for anything and anyone. Well that makes perfect sense. These Phillies are 11 games back and nine games under .500. It's harder to believe a run will happen by the day.
But the Phillies will not be trading any major piece anytime soon. It's as simple as that.
These "calls" that are being reported could very well go as such (and there are indications they sounded like this).
AMARO: "Hello, Team X. We're really in a hole and assessing our options. So, hypothetically, what would you offer should Cole Hamels become available?"
TEAM X: "What sort of package are you looking for?"
AMARO: "The sun, stars, and moon."
TEAM X: "We would certainly be interested, but not at that price. Come back to us later when we know who else is available and what other teams are buying."
OK, maybe Ruben Amaro Jr. sounded different, but you have the idea. The Phillies will set their sights high early in trade talks. It does not mean they will make a trade or receive what they want. It means nothing.
Why?
Well, firstly, Hamels' value is totally dependent on the rest of the market. If the Milwaukee Brewers decline to make Zack Greinke available, then Hamels' worth shoots up because he's the only elite pitcher available. If the New York Yankees decide a rash of injuries to their staff necessitate the acquisition of another top arm, then Hamels' worth shoots up because teams must outbid the Yankees.
But none of this is known on July 2, with 29 days until the deadline.
There also remains a possibility — more realistic than some are led to believe — the Phillies retain Hamels. In a Sunday column, I wrote the Phillies can and should sign him. But they must decide whether they are true players for his services before July 31. If they aren't, trade him for the best available package.
Still, remember, what the best available hitter on last year's market (Carlos Beltran) fetched: One top prospect. Beltran was a rental, much like Hamels. Both are not eligible for draft-pick compensation. Hamels may be a more valuable player than Beltran, but we are not comparing players. We are comparing markets.
Could this summer's market offer more in return? No one knows. Hence, what is the harm in calling other teams to ascertain the current value their potential trade chips? None.
Just make sure it is placed in the proper context.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
Time to bring up Sandberg. Chawlie has no control over this team. Jimmie keeps jogging.— wo_fat- obviously any trade for Hamels would be a sign and trade with the prevailing team precluded from the NTC,.....it would be the only way to obtain full value of a solid major-leaguer, and major league-ready prospect and a mid-level prospect,....for a hypothetical example: Texas - Elvis Andrus ss, Olt 3rd base prospect, and midlevel,.....if you traded Hamels any other way, you wouldn't obtain any value for your return, but you would however, be able to bring him back in the off-season— SyddBarrett
- Nobody wants Rollins' contract. Get that through your thick skull.— hunglikeaton
- I am sad to say, Even though I like the guy AMARO MUST GO !
Every year he has been in charge the team has gotten worse
and they are spending more, I have many examples of his faults
but getting rid of Hamels is the worse. AMARO NUST GO and take charlie with you— wildgreenman - to the idiots who can't read, or simply don't understand, Pence and Oswalt were under contract for the year they were traded, and the following year (in Pence's case, 2 more years). Hammels is under contract for 1/2 season. Now do you see the differnce in price?— jeff gross
- Is anyone but me shocked Tony LaRussa didn't select the self-proclaimed "hitting guru" as one of his coaches for the NL All-Star squad? I mean the boob won 102 games last season and bragged about it all winter to anyone dumb enough to listen.— Wilhelm Von Humboldt
- Who in their right mind would take Lee with his massive back end-loaded contract and his declining stats?— Xyzzyx
- Trading Cole make sense now if he is not going to sign. Mets got a great pitching prospect for 10 weeks of Beltran. Trading Victorino makes sense only if you have agood replacement. Phills dont. I would not figure Mayberry. JMJ is a 220 hitter vrs. righthanders. He does not figure to get better as his batting approach works against him. JMJ is very smooth in the field but you only get points for that in dancing. JMJ is a good fielder Shane is a very good one. JMJ has value as a platoon player aganst lefties. Im hoping Amaro does not make any desperation moves. Few will agree but selling Qualls was a desperation move... Amaro takes heat for this teams failure. I would agree if you could forsee the injuries. The heat should come for gutting the teams future, d'Arnaud, Singelton, Cosart have star potential. Then maybe not.— Don w
- Comparing Hamels to Beltran in each years market is apples and oranges. Beltran was a player in his mid 30's (34 I think he was last year) who had (and has) a long history of being injured plus a reputation of hot and cold. He was a player who truly was being pursued and subsequently acquired to be a rental player. There was no chance Beltran was going to get a mega year deal in the offseason at his age and with his history of injuries. Free agent to be players in their mid 30's with a history of injuries just dont command several top prospects....no matter how talented. Teams dont overpay for players like that because of the risk of injury to that player, their age, plus their intent isnt to keep them long term. A player like Hamels will be traded for with the intent of the team who gets him to keep him long term and wants the inside track, and will feel they have a great chance to keep him long term and work something out. Not often does a 27 year old pitcher who is entering his prime, has a world series MVP and ring, plenty of postseason experience, and been one of the top starters for the last several years (tho his team didnt support him with runs) AND is a lefty with a pretty good non injury history and has proven durable. To say because Beltran commanded only one top prospect means Hamels will command the same.....hardly! Remember, apples and oranges.— Big D phillies fan
- Amazing how quickly the wheels fall off in professional sports. It seems like just yesterday the Phillies had one of the most dominate starting rotations in baseball history. Now "fire sale" is all everybody is talking about. Frankly I hope they don't pull a Florida Marlins. The team is not in financial trouble and are riddled with injuries. If it was up to me I would trade Lee for some great prospects and sign Hamels to a long term deal. Bring up Sandberg to breathe some life into the team. Howard will hopefully be back and the team needs him badly. I still cannot figure out why Pierre is not batting leadoff. Jroll works for the phillies, not the other way around.— bobf876
- Jay25 sums it up great. Amaro's made some moves everyone likes because it involved spending a lot of money on "can't miss" vets. When it comes to anything else he's pretty awful. When it turns out some of those "can't miss" guys do miss, and miss horribly like Utley, Howard, and now Lee it magnifies how inept Amaro is at filling out a roster. His 50 million closer was inexplicable when they knew the lineup would have huge holes. Finally he overpays for everything which adds up on the payroll and other teams treating him like a sucker. Fire Amaro and the senile old guy on the bench.— lazyboy
- This team all year has shown no signs of life and yet the GM does nothing about it? Bring up some players with energy from AA or AAA!!! Trade a Victorino or Polanco. Utley and Howard will not be able to save this team this year or in 2013. I think the Phils are already becoming the Cubs. Charlie has already given up by saying he doesn't know what else to do. Fire Charlie and get Ryno in here and get him Jimmy Williams as his bench coach!!! Jimmy Williams pretty much managed the team while he was here since Charlie has no clue about running a NL team (that's why he took off after 08 since the Phils were not paying him squat).— tralala
Comment removed.- Dismantle time...and we are still formidable. Victorino- LAD, Hamels- SD, Blanton- NYY; Bastardo- Toronto. Bring up Cloyd & Gilles....Get Headley, Gardner, et al, top prospects and draft choices.— ginzo
- Amaro traded Cliff Lee to Seattle for 3 stiffs a couple years ago. At least Ed Wade in Houston got some good players from the Phillies when trading Pence and Oswalt.— zeke128
