Making some sense of the Laynce Nix deal
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Making some sense of the Laynce Nix deal
David Murphy
At first glance, the signing of Laynce Nix to a two-year deal, which a baseball source said would likely happen this week after veteran journeyman takes a physical, might not make a heck of a lot of sense. Aside from birth date, the 31-year-old Nix doesn't figure to give the Phillies any more production in left field than they got out of 39-year-old Raul Ibanez last season.
Put it this way: In a 2011 season that was by far the worst campaign of his 10 years as an everday player, Ibanez still put up better numbers than Nix has posted in his career.
Ibanez in 2011: .245 batting average, .289 on base percentage, .419 slugging percentage, 106 strikeouts, 20 home runs.
Nix in his career: .244 batting average, .288 on base percentage, .430 slugging percentage, and an average of 120 strikeouts and 17 home runs per 162 games played.
But let's try to figure out what the Phillies are thinking, since the deal is not yet official and they will not tell us for themselves.
First, rule out any thought of Nix playing an everyday role in left. He has reached 400 plate appearances just once in his career. John Mayberry Jr. is definitely the better option to enter the season as the regular in left.
Second, rule out any thought of a straight platoon in left, at least to start the season. Mayberry performed just as well, if not better, than Nix did against righties in 2011:
Mayberry vs. RHP in 2011: .250/.330/.455 with seven home runs, 37 strikeouts and 18 walks in 176 plate appearances.
Nix vs. RHP in 2011: .263/.306/.475 with 16 home runs, 71 strikeouts and 19 walks in 320 plate appearances against righties).
So where does Nix fit, other than a left-handed power option to supplement Jim Thome and give Mayberry or Hunter Pence the occasional day off against a tough righty?
Maybe at first base, where Nix started six games for the Nationals last season. Although the Phillies have maintained that they expect Ryan Howard back for Opening Day, the experiences of other athletes who have suffered ruptured Achilles tendons suggest he could miss the first couple months of the season. In that case, the combination of Nix and Ty Wigginton at first base could provide a solid enough platoon to fill some of the offensive void:
Wigginton vs. LHP in 2011: 127 PA, 108 AB, 28 H, 3 2B, 5 HR, 17 BB, 2 HBP, 25 SO
Nix vs. RHP in 2011: 320 PA, 297 AB, 78 H, 13 2B, 1 3B, 16 HR, 19 BB, 1 HBP, 71 SO
Combine the 2011 platoon splits of the two players and the result is a .262/.324/.462 line with 21 home runs and 96 strikeouts in 447 plate appearances.
Although that still presents a drop-off from Howard's production, it is not as steep as you might think. In 644 plate appearances in 2011, Howard hit .253/.346/.488 with 33 home runs and 172 strikeouts. Extend the Nix/Wigginton production over 644 plate appearances and they finish with 30 home runs and 138 strikeouts. So you would actually get better contact and roughly equivalent power at the expense 13 fewer times reaching base.
Now, back to the head-scratchers:
-Nix would certainly bring more power to a bench that already includes Jim Thome, Ty Wigginton and, presumably, Ben Francisco. But in 152 career plate appearances as a pinch hitter he has hit just .187/.276/.269 with two home runs and 40 strikeouts in 134 at-bats.
-You might think Nix's power would play better in Citizens Bank Park, but he has hit just 4-for-36 with one double, no home runs and 10 strikeouts there in his career. Of course, that is a small sample size.
-Nix is atrocious against lefties, carrying a .181/.235/.271 line with two home runs and 74 strikeouts in 199 career at-bats. So again, forget about the everyday job.
-Nix is a career .141 hitter with two strikes.
If Nix is the last offensive piece the Phillies plan on adding outside of short stop, it will have been a puzzling offseason. In Ruben Amaro Jr.'s end-of-the-season press conference, he expressed a desire to put together better at-bats, particularly with two strikes. But the three hitters the Phillies have added are all the opposite kind of hitter: Wigginton is a career .185 two-strike hitter; Thome is a career .172 two-strike hitter. And Nix is a career .141 two-strike hitter. Rather than pursuing the type of veteran contact hitters that gave them fits against the Cardinals, the Phillies have added two swing-and-miss power hitters to go with a power-hitting utility man in decline. None will provide much in the way of options if Mayberry ends up struggling in an everyday role.
The moves will make a lot more sense if the Phillies have something bigger in mind. Like, perhaps, the stealth signing of switch-hitting star Carlos Beltran, or a trade for another proven corner outfielder (or the addition of Michael Cuddyer, whom they targeted early on). In that case, Mayberry would slide back to the rotational role he played last season, bringing speed, power and versatility to the veterans on the bench (Wigginton, Thome, Nix and perhaps Francisco). The Phillies would suddenly have plenty of depth at every position, with Wigginton able to fill in for Placido Polanco and Chase Utley and Mayberry and Nix rotating into first base and the outfield.
Stay tuned for the verdict.
I'm hoping this is an "organizational depth" move. Is there any truth to the rumor that the deal is conditional on Nix dropping the pointless "y" in his first name? I loved seeing Nix come up in a key spot against the Phillies...and whiffing!— frankenslade- WOnder if Hanley would now be an option with Jose going to FL?— PhillyInExile
- My favorite "clutch" stat is batting average with runners in scoring position. Nix has shown the inability to hit with runners in scoring position with his career .217 average. On the other hand Ibanez has a career .298 RISP avg. for example. Nix has not shown the ability to merit being on the roster of any team that is serious about winning a World Series!— Dull
- It sounds to me like this is a last-resort insurance policy if Dom Brown fails to step forward in 2012.— Bobby G
- By obtaining the lefty bat of Nix cheaply to replace Ibanez, it opens the door for Amaro to make one key acquisition for this year. We've all seen Amaro work quietly and brilliantly over the past few years. Shortstop and third base are spots where this acquisition could happen. Dont discount the Phillies going after Aramis Ramirez to play 3rd and then trading Polanco for what they can get for him. Unloading Ibanez, Oswalt and Lidge from last years payroll is 40 million dollars. While there are increases in salary to some of the players.. especially Lee.. there is money to sign Rollins and Aramis Ramirez should they choose to do so. Then again, Amaro could choose to find someone new at SS who might be a better leadoff option than Rollins who's on base percentage has been lousy of late.— bradco
- Good move. It's good rotational depth against right handers. Has some pop. No sense comparing his stats to Ibanez's since Raul's numbers will precipitously decline due to him being in his 40s. Beyond that, it's healthy for a team to turn over it's roster. Keeping a 40 year-old Ibanez around for another year or two doesn't make much sense.— guyguy4
- A strange move by our PHILLIES I would not of made this move. I can only hope the PHIOLLIES have a major move coming. We need a Short stop and Reyes is out. maybe as bearsfriend said Hanley Ramirez throws a fit and gets traded rather than moving over to third... Iwould like to see him as a PHILLIE I think hewould be a better player for a team that really hasa chance to win it all!
— srcdaddy1216 - Something has to be "in the works." Can't believe that this is the team they take to spring training. Cuddyer should be in the works and a SS to take Rollins place should the Phils not sign Jimmy.— walt1
- Wouldn't it be a hoot if RAJ signed Pojols and started him at 3rd? The Cards did that for a while last season.— Bruno Sammartino
- Hey Murph,
Any truth that the phils are in on Aramis Ramierez as tweeted by Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post?— anp27 - The Phils will save money with Nix over Ibanez which could be used for another deal. I've seen Charlie on tv several times the last 2 weeks and he looks awfully happy, does he know something we don't yet?— atp2007
- Good signing. Phils now have a lot of power on the bench with Thome, Wigginton and Nix unlike last year with Valdez, Martinez, Gload, Pete Orr. Charlie will play the veteran bench guys more so hopefully the starters will be able to rest more this year.— zeke128
- Does Pujols want to play 3B?— IdahoMoose
What were Werth's stats before he joined the Phils? Maybe someone in the organization thinks his swing can be fixed etc etc . . .
— Leegles
yes..because that is what teams close to winning titles need to be worrying themselves with..fixing swings of career mendoza line hitters.- Forget about Pujols at third. Even if he could play it every day now (doubtful), think he'd able to in 4 years, when Howard is still under contract at 1st? You don't even need to look at finances to know that move makes no sense and will not happen. And clearly the finances don't work either.— Phils Phan 28
