How to get Hunter Pence production for a third of the price
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How to get Hunter Pence production for a third of the price
There was a lot of head-scratching on Tuesday afternoon when the Phillies traded away Hunter Pence for a package of players headlined by Giants catching prospect Tommy Joseph. In a recent column, esteemed baseball scribe Jayson Stark relays an email he received from a baseball person who wondered, "What the (heck) are the Phillies doing?"
It is a fair question to ask, provided the focus is the totality of their moves over the last few offseasons. The one thing the last few days have shown is that the Phillies' ability to spend on payroll is a serious issue moving forward. Ruben Amaro Jr. consistently deflects questions about his budget, but with a little deductive reasoning, we can get a pretty good idea of the meaning of his maneuvering prior to Tuesday's non-waiver trade deadline. And what I infer is that $189 million is going to be their targeted payroll for the foreseeable future. That is the number of the luxury tax threshold after next season. I infer that they are willing to spend up to that amount next season, meaning they would be subjected to a 17.5 percent tax (an amount that is hardly a deterrent). But they do not seem willing to go over that amount on a consistent basis, as evidenced by the apparent fact-finding mission they conducted with regard to trade interest in veterans like Cliff Lee and Jimmy Rollins. Even the Yankees are trying to get their payroll under $189 million. The new CBA sets up that number as a near-de-facto salary cap, given the penalties for exceeding it multiple seasons in a row.
So, there we have it: $189 million.
As I wrote a couple of days ago, the Pence trade made sense when you considered the cost efficiency of his production when compared to potential replacements. In this instance, I am convinced they did the right thing, as I'll attempt to illustrate in a minute. The real time to ask, "What the (heck) are the Phillies doing?" was last offseason, when they decided to allocate $12.5 million a year to a pitcher who will only log 60 or 70 innings in a season. Or a couple years before that, when they decided to give Ryan Howard a $25 million a year contract extension two years before his existing deal expired, in essence guaranteeing him $164 million over seven seasons through his 36th birthday. When you consider that, the following season, the Red Sox signed Adrian Gonzalez to a seven-year, $154 million extension that runs through his 36th birthday, and that Gonzalez was one year closer to free agency when he signed his deal, it is difficult to argue that the Phillies did not take an unnecessary and potentially crippling financial risk when they handed Howard an extension two years before free agency.
It is even fair to wonder what the Phillies were thinking when they signed Cliff Lee to a five-year, $120 million deal if such a commitment was going to end up being a problem. As far as I can tell, nothing unforeseen has happened since the Phillies made the decision to sign Lee to that deal. They knew Cole Hamels was going to be a free agent. They knew Jimmy Rollins was going to be a free agent and that they would likely have to overpay him because the options for replacing him were so slim. They knew they had already guaranteed Howard significant money. I guess what they didn't know was that Chase Utley would miss five months in 2010 and 2011 because of his knee condition. Still...it is hard to imagine that after only a year-and-a-half the Phillies are suddenly contemplating whether they would be better off without Lee and his salary. Sure, his numbers are down this year. But he was as good as advertised last season. And, frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if, at the end of September, his production for 2012 is right where it has been for his career. The guy has always been streaky, and we might be getting set to enter one of his hot streaks. So again, the question: if the Phillies decided Lee was worth all of that money a year-and-a-half ago, how can they now be thinking that he might not be?
Long story short, you can't afford to overpay at every position if you want to maintain a payroll under $190 million. The Phillies are already overpaying at first base, short stop, closer, and starting pitcher. Which is why Hunter Pence is no longer a Phillie.
The Phillies knew there was a possibility that Pence could ask for upwards of $15 million arbitration after the season. Essentially, they could end up paying him as much as a free agent corner outfielder. It just didn't make sense, because Pence is not a $15 million-a-year player, especially not for a team that has a finite amount of payroll space.
In his calendar year with the Phillies, Pence hit .289 with a .357 on base percentage, .486 slugging percentage (.842 OPS) and 28 home runs in 676 plate appearances. Solid production. But not $15 million-a-year production.
Consider what the Phillies could get by pairing newly-acquired right fielder Nate Schierholtz with a right-handed hitting counterpart in a platoon situation. Below are three candidates who will be free agents after the season: Scott Hairston, Jonny Gomes, and Reed Johnson. I took each player's numbers against left-handed pitchers over the last two seasons and added them to Schierholtz's numbers against right-handed pitchers over the last two seasons.
The results:
Hairston/Schierholtz platoon: .286/.341/.486 (.827 OPS), 24 HR, 118 SO, 662 PA
Gomes/Schierholtz platoon: .288/.367/.467 (.834 OPS), 22 HR, 136 SO, 671 PA
Johnson/Schierholtz platoon: .295/.349/.475 (.824 OPS), 18 HR, 114 SO, 639 PA
Now, compare those lines to the one posted by Phillies right fielders this season:
.271/.333/.449 (.783 OPS), 18 HR, 91 SO, 456 PA
They have gotten more home runs (the equivalent of 26 home runs over a 671 plate appearance season), about the same strikeouts, about the same isolated power, and less base-reaching ability.
All three of the hypothetical platoons are making less than $2.5 million combined this season. Schierholtz should be in line for an arbitration raise in the neighborhood of $2.75 million, but a right-handed platoon-type outfielder goes for between $1 million and $1.5 million on the open market (or, at least, it did on last year's open market). How much more does Hunter Pence give a team than the aforementioned platoons? More importantly, is it worth an extra $10 million to $12 million?
Rather than Pence alone, the Phillies would be better off with one of the above situations combined with an extra $10 to $12 million spent on a pair of veteran strikeout arms for the bullpen, or a strikeout arm and a $5 million upgrade in center field (Shane Victorino instead of Rick Ankiel?), or a strikeout arm and a $5 million upgrade at third base (Kevin Youkilis instead of Freddy Galvis?).
The Phillies have made plenty of questionable decisions over the last few seasons. Heck, you can question the return they got for Pence. But the philosophy of the move makes perfect sense, at least now that we know that they have a hard cap on what they can spend.
Amaro. Mistake.— CrotchetyOldMan- "it is difficult to argue that the Phillies did not take an unnecessary and potentially crippling financial risk when they handed Howard an extension two years before free agency" I am struggling to understand exactly what this means. is it good or bad?— birdfannnj
- Perversely, they have to consider shopping Lee precisely because he is good. There is no way to even consider unloading Howard's albatross contract. The deal normally is if the club renews early and assumes the risk they should get a break in dollars and years. That wasn't the case in Howard's deal. — jtj06
- How can you say they didn't get a break in years? If he had another monster year (which he didn't) he would have been looking at Pujols or Fiedler 10 yr deals? — DogBiscuitthedope
- Howard is the oldest out of those guys. Pujols is a sure Hall-of-Famer and will pay off in terms of milestones and marketing. Fielder is signed to age 36 at a lower annual value than Howard's contract, which takes him to 36 to. So, comparing with Fielder, "Ruin Tomorrow" paid more for Howard's ages 32-36 years without the benefit of ages 28-31 to offset it. — jtj06
- Come on, Howard is about 2 months older than Albert. Forgot about marketing and milestones, he will be playing five yrs after Ryans deal expired, not arguing wether he is worth it but can't say Ryan at 5 yrs isn't bad in comparison — DogBiscuitthedope
- birdfannj, I also had to work through that sentence a couple of times. It means that the Phillies probably did exercise poor judgment in extending Howard when they did.
jtj06 - good points, I agree.— 1980 - It means thay DID take an unnecessary and potentially crippling financial risk. Not good. And not "potentially," just crippling. — filzfan
- @Murphy: please explain what you mean by $5 million upgrade, Victorino over Rick Ankiel. I don't follow.— dasher
- How do you want to spend the money you saved by trading Pence? Do you want to spend 3M/yr on Ankiel or 8M/yr on Victorino (And, presumably, 2 great bullpen pieces at 4.5M/yr with Ankiel vs. 1 great 4M/yr bullpen piece w/Vic)? — vinni
- Please explain to me how Ankiel would warrant a $3M contract? He is horrendous! Look at his production. Clearly, he has stopped the steroids. He just has an arm and it is not very accurate. — kozykoz26
- So, since John Mayberry's career splits are .290/.318/.580 versus LHP with 19 HRs in 274 plate appearances and he isn't arbitration eligible until 2014, why are you throwing around those older and more expensive names? Must be hanging around Amaro too much and acquired his penchant for always seeking the more expensive solutions. Replacing Pence's production for 1/5th the cost would seem to be a better deal.— jtj06
- Agree with other posters in that I had trouble following a few of Murphy's points. I consider myself a reasonably intelligent person, but had to re-read several lines....and I still am not sure what to make of them. I guess I understand and agree with his basic theme for this article: that the Phillies did the right thing in trading Pence (and ultimately Shane) because it saves them cash and there are more cost-effective ways to get the same production.— MrPhillie
- It's amazing that I have felt that Amaro was stultifying stupid signing some of these contracts (viz Howard's) only to be proven right. I'm just a fan and I can see these things. How does Amaro keep his job? He's a proven moron.— Xyzzyx
- Because John Mayberry Jr. stinks.— Matt
