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Thursday, October 2, 2008

After Game 1, Phils pitching coach Rich Dubee was talking about closer Brad Lidge and his frightening dance between the raindrops. Which was his second straight Williams-esque, hair-on-fire extravaganza. Which has left the town somewhere between scared and apoplectic, even while acknowledging that Lidge is, you know, perfect in save situations this season, now 42 out of 42.

As all good pitching coaches do, Dubee accentuated the positive. He said, "He's paid to do a job and he's done a tremendous job...That's why we acquired him, to pitch that kind of inning. These are special guys. We've got a special guy in that clubhouse. This guys has done it all year for us. Why hesitate going to him?"

That was the standard boilerplate and it was correct. They are going to keep going to Lidge until he blows one of these things and almost certainly even after he were to blow one. It is why you pay him. It is common sense to stick with him. This really isn't a question, except that everybody needs something to be nervous about (as if Milwaukee starter CC Sabathia wasn't enough).

Anyway, Dubee also said about Lidge, "Generally, his worst days are after time off. It just (takes time) to acquire the feel again."

With nothing better to do on a windy Thursday morning - other than pack, run a couple of errands, go for a quick run, and fnd somebody who will cut my hair before getting to the park at 2:30 - I did a quick lookup on Dubee's theory about Lidge and rest. Best as I can tell, Lidge has now had 15 games this season where he allowed at least two base runners and threw at least 20 pitches. Here is the breakdown on how many days' rest he had leading up to those more-difficult outings:

0 days' rest...five times.

1 day's rest...four times.

2 days' rest...three times.

3 days' rest...two times.

4 days' rest...one time.

Just looking at that distribution, it doesn't look to me as if too much rest has a lot to do with ths conversation. There's another way to look at it, though -- difficult outings on a given day's rest as a percentage of all games with that same rest. So:

0 days' rest...20 percent hard outings.

1 day's rest...19 percent.

2 days' rest...33 percent.

3 days' rest...40 percent.

4 days' rest...14 percent.

It isn't perfect, but you can sort of see where Dubee was coming from with that list of percents. The 4-days'-rest thing is out of whack with the rest of it, but you can see that Lidge this season was twice as likely to have a hard outing on 3 days' rest as he was on 0 days' rest or 1 day's rest.

That's the good news, I guess.

With that, return to worrying.

Posted by Rich Hofmann @ 11:52 AM  Permalink | 8 comments
8
Comments   
Posted 12:08 PM, 10/02/2008
birds4ever
Have we, as Philly sports fans, become so jaded that we even have to complain about the way a guy does his job even when he does it as well as Lidge this year? I know a certain QB who could learn a thing or two from Lidge regarding performing well under pressure...
Comment removed.
Posted 12:45 PM, 10/02/2008
Bjorn Ulvaeus
he is scared to give up a homer...remember the Astros were 1 out away from the WS and Lidge gave up that BOMB to Pujols...that still haunts him...it has too...I bet he was afraid that was going to give up a homer yesterday...he was barely reaching the plate he was so tight...
Posted 01:02 PM, 10/02/2008
Clem
I don't feel he is afraid to give up a homer. he might have been tight...but I think it was just the playoff atmosphere. face it fans...he isn't "3 out on nine pitches" kind of guy. He is going to run some counts. If Utley didn't bobble the cutoff, maybe a run doesn't come in and the shutout is preserved and everyone can feel even better about the game. But Lidge did his job. I mean it wasn't like a Wild Thing playoff scare....where rockets were hit and we were lucky (mostly) that there was a good defense behind him. Lidge strikes guys out. I don't worry about Lidge. The bats not hitting is what is giving me gray hair
Posted 01:09 PM, 10/02/2008
JimG
Speaking of jaded fans, why the heck do the McNabb haters have to constantly bag on McNabb in the PHILLIES discussions? We just won back-to-back division titles for the first time in more than 25 years, we just won our first playoff game in 15 years and people are mentioning McNabb. McNabb has absolutely nothing to do with the Phillies. If they lose a game, maybe he'll get blamed for that too.
Posted 01:17 PM, 10/02/2008
JimG
Agreed Clem, I don't Lidge is afraid of anything or paranoid about anything. Philly fans are well-known for being paranoid and neurotic so they may be afraid he'll give up a HR but I'm sure he was just amped up for the game b/c it was his first playoff appearance in a couple of years and it was a big game, crowd going crazy, etc. He had 2 strikes on Durham and was on his way to cruising 1-2-3 until Durham hit that flare and Braun's hit was sort of fluky b/c he was so late on his swing that it just barely stayed fair. The walks weren't a control issue as much as him just pitching around certain guys since they had a decent lead. Let's face it, when you throw 96 mile per hour fastballs, then guys with any decent power will hit HRs when they make good contact on them and that's in any park, not just the Bank. This guy couldn't perform at the high level he has this year and throughout his career if he was "afraid" to pitch to hitters and "afraid" to give up HRs. When most pro athletes are "nervous" on the field, it's more about being too excited and amped up, not because they are scared to be out there. Hamels explained it perfectly in his press conference and interviews after the game. He was too amped up last year and it messed with his control over his pitches. This year he made an effort to keep himself calmed down and it paid off big-time.
Posted 03:25 PM, 10/02/2008
CSpangler
Hey Clem, Lidge is so afraid to give up a homer that all he's done is convert 42 of 42 save opportunities. Boy he must be just scared to death? Whats next Howard is too afraid of K's so he only homered 48 times this year?
Posted 04:47 PM, 10/02/2008
RollinsWasRight
"he hopes the hitter will chase garbage"... ... ... I have never heard anyone who knows anything about baseball refer to any pitch in Lidge's arsenal as "garbage". no matter where, when, why, how, or to whom it is thrown ... ... Moyer throws "garbage", Lidge throws "filth"... and his issue is he has fallen into a pattern... as soon as he gets 2 strikes on a hitter, he will continue to throw sliders in the dirt until he strikes them out or evens the count... then, at 2-2, he invariably throws the high-and-inside fastball, to set up the slider away... but they are not swinging behind in the count, knowing he is going with the slider, knowing they can't hit it, and knowing it won't be a strike. He needs to mix things up by simply blowing a fastball or two by someone while he is ahead in the count, or at least waste two consecutive fastballs whilst ahead... he needs to get them guessing, change their thinking... and last I checked, even though the slider is his best pitch, that 93-96 mph fastball ain't too shabby, neither...
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About Rich Hofmann
Rich Hofmann arrived at the Daily News in 1980 for a job whose status was officially designated as "full-time, temporary." A senior at Penn at the time, he was hired to fill in on the copy desk during a staff illness. The notion of him covering the Eagles or being a columnist did not exist in anyone's imagination. It was supposed to be six weeks and out, but he never left. It is only one of the reasons why so many people have concerns about him as a potential house guest. Rich has blogged the postseasons of the Flyers and Eagles.

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