Ellsbury an interesting option for Phillies
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Ellsbury an interesting option for Phillies
Bob Brookover
NASHVILLE -- The domino effect that can occur whenever a team makes a move at the winter meetings may have created another center-field option for the Phillies via trade Tuesday.
After the Boston Red Sox signed former Phillies center fielder Shane Victorino to a three-year, $39 million deal, the rumblings started that they may be ready to move Jacoby Ellsbury, a player who finished second in the American League MVP voting in 2011.
A separated shoulder limited Ellsbury to 74 games in 2012, marking the second time in three seasons he missed substantial time because of injuries. A rib injury limited him to 18 games in 2010.
The Phillies are already relying on Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Roy Halladay to have comeback seasons after missing long stretches of the 2012 season, so it would be a risk to count upon Ellsbury as their starting center fielder, too.
On the other hand, the reward would be great if Ellsbury returned to his 2011 form when he hit .321 with 47 doubles, 32 home runs and 105 RBIs while also stealing 39 bases and scoring 119 runs.
The risk in terms of dollars and long-term commitment would not be significant. Ellsbury, 29, will be a free agent after the 2013 season, so he should be motivated to play for a long-term deal. He made just over $8 million last season and probably will be paid right around that number next season.
Whenever Ellsbury has been healthy he has been an elite player. He led the American League in stolen bases with 50 in 2008 and 70 in 2009. He has scored 90 or more runs in the three seaosns he played at least 145 games and he has a .349 career on-base percentage.
Like Michael Bourn, the best pure free-agent center fielder on the free-agent market at these winter meetings, Ellsbury is represented by agent Scott Boras. Since Ellsbury is only eligible for salary arbitration, there would be no significant negotations.
What would the Phillies have to surrender in a trade for Ellsbury? The deal could get done for righthander Vance Worley because the Red Sox need another starting pitcher. Worley, 25, should be attractive to a lot of teams even though he is coming off a frustrating season caused by a bone spur that was surgically removed in September. Worley is not eligible for salary arbitratrion until after the 2013 season and cannot be a free agent until after the 2017 season. The Red Sox, after spending big in the free-agent market this offseason, should like that kind of low-cost option for the back of their starting rotation.
Not sure a MLB overacheiving, 4th starting pitcher at best, coming off elbow surgery, could get Ellsbury....but if so, you do that. 4th & 5th SPs are a hell of a lot easier to replace than top of the lineup, MVP— the dad- People need to be realistic, if they are getting Ellsbury it will have to be a package that s probably made up of Worley, Valle/Joseph, and May or whoever their favorite pitching prospect is and I would do that deal in a heartbeat. Ellsbury is an MVP caliber player you on't find better— mdb20
- @Dave C, the red flag for Bonifacio's 2011 is his batting average on balls in play. When BABIP varies significantly from a player's career norm, it typically means it's due to just luck/normal variation. Bonifacio's BABIP has been around .330 for most of his career, but in 2011 it was a very high .372.
And that's been his only season so far where his OPS has surfaced about .650.
Projections like those by Bill James' model take all that into account, as well a player's age, and for Bonifacio the James model predicts a .686 OPS in 2013.— schmenkman - Worley, at best is a #4 SP, who because he has NEVER shown great promise in the minors, is probably overacheiving right now in the MLB. Not that he couldn't put it together all of a sudden. Still, add him coming off of elbow surgery, and it's a no brainer to trade him for Ellsbury, who is a bonafide top of the lineup, MVP/Gold Glove candidate in CF. As far as #4 & #5 SPs go, they are a dime a dozen. Even for one year.— the dad
- This is the purest of pure speculation. I hate reports like this.— Cheesesteak
- Hard to believe that Ruben would move a starting pitcher who can be controlled for five more years like Worley and will make little in 2013 for a one year rental like Ellsbury. Moving Kendrick make more sense since he will earn $4.5 million this year and he is a free agent after 2013 just like Ellsbury.— Dull
- Maybe I'm missing something. The guy is a No. 4 starter coming off a 6-9/4.20 year and offseason elbow surgery. I don't know what's harder to believe: that Boston would evern entertain a discussion about swapping Ellsbury for Worley in the first place, or that there are actually people in this city who would not let go of Worley in the deal
- Just say no... Four/Five years of Worley is worth way more than one year of Ellsbury. If they trade Worley, they are going to have to do a lot better than a rental player who is a high injury risk. Say no and move on to the next aisle— sjuhawk416
- Schmenkman: Despite his history, you still have to pull the trigger. Healthy, he is head and shoulders above Bourne. And should we be lucky to get him, I want to see the Phillies go outside the box and get him locked up instead of their traditional way of player dealings and letting him play his way out of Philly..... Also, as an aside: appreciate the stats you use in presenting your points, they definitely present players in a different perspective.
@Dave Clemens: Another fine post! However there is no smoke, no bits posted by these writers about any deal with LA. At any rate, this team cannot go into these season with a starting line up of Mayberry and D Brown. And I want to see the potential of Ruf blossom unimpeded by Charlie.....— DelawareRiverRat - This isn't fantasy baseball. Nobody trades an MVP candidate for a No. 4 starter straight up. Heck while we're at it, let's move Kyle Kendrick for Miguel Cabrera
- The Phillies moves must be significant just for them to compete in that division with Washington and Atlanta. The problem is that the only significant moves would come attached with a huge sense of uncertainty namely Hamilton and Ellsbury. Bourn, Fowler, Bourjos not really significant impact players. Ludwick maybe but again there is a level of uncertainty.— Phillip Phan
- why not
— jmmdk5 - Clueless Rube has no ability to make a trade for a genuine young talenet because he already emptied the store and depleted the minors for such aging and/or long-gone busts like Halladay, Oswalt and Pence, and got back in return only useless trash for Victorino, Pence, Lee and Blanton ... clueless Rube has destroyed the franchise as Phils have nothing (other than a Hamels) and no ability to get better— warbiscuit
- The chance of everybody returning to form is remote. We don't need another rehab case. Remember last year waiting on Utley and Howard? Now we also have to wait for Ruiz. Will Utley be ready to go this year?— ACBaughman
