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Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Don't worry about Rollins yet

Sixty years ago, they made a baseball movie called “It Happens Every Spring.” The plot is a fantasy, about a chemist who accidentally discovers a formula that repels wood and then becomes a pitcher who puts his potion to work for fun and profit. And, no, they didn’t test for the potion back then (or HGH, for that matter).

It happens every spring. There is no evidence that Jimmy Rollins has ever seen the movie, but he clearly knows the effects it describes. Pretty much every season he has been in the major leagues, Rollins has endured a long slump in the first half of the season. (There are a couple in the middle of the season, too.) At least one of them was worse than what Rollins had done so far this year, but there really have been a bunch of them.

It is why there no reason to worry yet.

Spend a half-hour with a strong cup of coffee and baseball-reference.com and you can do the same thing. It is a Rollins trait, these slumps. I tried to pick out time periods that approximate the 131 plate appearances that Rollins has had so far this season.

With that, here are the numbers:

DATES                                              PA   AVG   HR   RBI

April 5 to May 10, 2009                   131   .195     1       9
May 18 to June 14, 2008                  123   .231     2       9
June 18 to July 25, 2008                   135   .228     0     10
May 4 to June 3, 2007                      126   .214     0     12
April 13 to May 18, 2006                 140   .199     4     11
April 19 to May 19, 2009                 125   .203     3      8
April 5 to May 13, 2004                   128   .209     0      6
May 21 to June 24, 2002                  132   .180     1      8
June 18 to August 3, 2002                187   .157     3     17

Again, Rollins is slumping and it is worse than most of the slumps cited above (but not all). But history says it happens to him, and that he’ll pull out of it, and that he’ll end up hitting about .270 or so by the time they fill in the last line on the 2009 scorebook.

Worry if it lasts another 2 or 3 weeks. Not yet.

Posted by Rich Hofmann @ 10:31 AM  Permalink | 24 comments
24
Comments   
Posted 10:47 AM, 05/12/2009
Tomme
All your historic stats are great, unfortunately, his annual slump is compounded by faulty pitching and the rest of the offense being erratic. The rest of the team is not picking up the slack. One final thought--when Howard or Utley slump, the fans can fell their pain. Rollins acts like he's having a stroll in the park. He has a crappy attitude.
Posted 11:18 AM, 05/12/2009
awl
I still think he should be dropped in the lineup, even if it's just until he gets out of the slump. No need to hurt the value of the lead-off position until Rollins gets it in gear. By the way, the number of HR's Rollins hit since his MVP season in '07? 12. I don't think he's going to duplicate anything near that season again.
Posted 11:19 AM, 05/12/2009
AllDawk_AllTheTime
the only three things to be concerned with: starting pitching, starting pitching, starting pitching... besides Cole - do you feel confident with anyone who starts? nothing else matters.
Posted 11:31 AM, 05/12/2009
pattymac3
I never was worried about him. Some teams will pay for this slump and when I look at this years defense, to me one of the best in baseball and I don't see Jimmy out there that bothers me. Look at all 8 guys we now have playing and tell me we our great defense will not not be responsible for winning a lot of games.You might think of moving him down but as a fan I never want him removed until he gets his stroke back. Jimmy feels the pain believe me.
Posted 11:43 AM, 05/12/2009
esesjay
I don't care how many home runs he hits, I'd just like to see him get on base. I'd like to see him be more patient at the plate and draw some more walks if he hasn't found his hitting stroke yet.
Posted 11:49 AM, 05/12/2009
Brainiac
don't worry becuase he might hit .270 again? since when is .270 good enough? the guy was good in 2007. every other year, he drives us kinda crazy. his fielding still makes him a decent player, but not the kind you love to see leading off an inning. the fact that he almost always goes through a slump that lasts at least a month is already known, that doesn't make it alright. by the way, look at 2002. you list 2 slumps that only overlap a few days meaning it was a nearly 3 MONTH SLUMP of batting .170! we cannot afford that.
Posted 12:00 PM, 05/12/2009
saLvo_PHL
Personally, I love Rollins...long-time Phillie, class act for the most part. But I wonder if he's even an everyday player anymore. His OPS since the end of 2007 is in the low 700s, below average for anyone, but certainly for a leadoff guy. I suppose he's earned the rest of 2009 to be the everyday shortstop, but I'm thinking that he's prematurely close to being done. Unless there's a sudden turnaround, I see 2010 (he's signed through then) as his last year here. And before that time, it may be wise to give Iron Pigs SS/prospect, Jason Donald, a look beyond a few innings in late September. It's time to start the concept of moving on without JRoll, unfortunately.
Posted 12:25 PM, 05/12/2009
pattymac3
A ss hitting 270 with a great glove is not good enough??????? Since when?
Posted 12:32 PM, 05/12/2009
B in DC
For all I care, he can hit .125 in the first seven innings if he gets big hits in the eighth and ninth. It's not like the currently terrible starting pitching is going to hold a lead from the first inning anyway. He'll probably hit .400 in June and we'll all have to shut up until the next slump rolls around.
Posted 12:37 PM, 05/12/2009
awl
starting pitching is obviously very important, but if Myers only gives up only 1 run and the team still loses because of the hitting. Bullpen gave up 3, but hitting is still an issue. Not saying they need to get 10 runs a game, but when the team scores runs, there's less pressure on the pitchers. When Myers (our PITCHER) draws a walk and then Rollins swings at the first pitch and pops up, it's absolutely maddening! Especially since Victorino right after him draws a walk. Baseball is not played in a vacuum. Both pitching and hitting are required to win games. Right now, Rollins is a big part of the reason why we're not scoring runs.
Posted 12:44 PM, 05/12/2009
awl
Do people realize that starting pitchers only pitch every 5 days? Cole had a good quality start his last game and so did Myers (even though we lost). Park also had an impressive outting against the Mets, but we'll have to see what he does tonight since he's been inconsistent. Moyer and in a sense Blanton could be problems, but overall, I don't think the starting pitching is "terrible". They were really bad in the beginning of the year, but it seems like they are starting to get their grove back. I get the feeling that Happ will start soon, but some of you sound as if starting pitching should be fixed overnight. It takes a week for each player to pitch at least once and evaluate. I saw signs of promise the past week, although not where everyone needs to be. But I'm still encouraged.
Posted 12:55 PM, 05/12/2009
Mark1npt
The minute Rollins hurt his ankle last season, I warned everyone on this board that he would never again be the offensive player we had come to expect. Believe me, I take no joy in that. I am as big a Phan as there is, but from a purely medical standpoint and looking at his advancing age, it was clear to me (as a medical practitioner) that his best years were behind him. It's a shame, but it's nature and you can't change it....unless......he hooks up with some of Barry's and ARod's friends.
Posted 01:06 PM, 05/12/2009
ACBaughman
Have a beer. Take a pitch. Hit to right/left.
Posted 01:23 PM, 05/12/2009
JimG
Wow, someone actually did some research...nice work.
Posted 01:49 PM, 05/12/2009
DR Heller
JRoll will be fine. He just need to stop swinging at pitchs up in the zone. Thats what his problem was a few years ago. He and Marlon Byrd made a pact that he wasn't going to swing at high pitches. He needs to stop that and he'll be fine. maybe Bunt a little bit more then he does too. But we need him bad.
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About Rich Hofmann
Rich Hofmann arrived at the Daily News in 1980 for a job whose status was officially designated as "full-time, temporary." A senior at Penn at the time, he was hired to fill in on the copy desk during a staff illness. The notion of him covering the Eagles or being a columnist did not exist in anyone's imagination. It was supposed to be six weeks and out, but he never left. It is only one of the reasons why so many people have concerns about him as a potential house guest. Rich has blogged the postseasons of the Flyers and Eagles.

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