Ch-Ch-Ch-Changes: Rotation/Bullpen
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Ch-Ch-Ch-Changes: Rotation/Bullpen
David Murphy
Make sure to buy the paper Wednesday. Check that. Make sure to buy the paper every day, but buy three copies on Wednesday: One to read, one to keep for posterity, and one to give to a friend who looks like he might need a little baseball knowledge dropped on them.
That's right -- the annual Daily News Spring Training Preview is coming out Wednesday. The theme of my main piece is change, and right now I am trying to decide what song lyric to work in. Feel free to give some suggestions, but here are three I'm considering:
"They'll all look at me and say/Hey look at him! I'll never live that way/But that's OK/They're just afraid to change."
--Change by Blind Melon
"Time may change me/But I can't trace time."
--Changes by David Bowie
"You gotta operate the easy way/I made a G Today/But you made it in a sleazy way"
--Changes by Tupac
I'm leaning toward Blind Melon -- One, because I don't want to get a bunch of emails from people who swear I misprinted David Bowie's lyrics. Two, because I don't think the Tupac lyrics are very relevant. Three, because I like the song.
Anyway, in the spirit of 21st-century information-distribution, I figured I'd give you guys a peek at some of what I'll be writing about well before you actually have to pay for it.
I'm going to take the 25-man roster on the day the Phillies clinched the NL East last season, and stack it up against the 25-man roster we're projecting will start the month of May (to account for injuries). That way, we can evaluate the changes the Phillies have made, man-for man.
I'll hit the rotation and bullpen today, and the line-up, bench and field tomorrow.
I. Rotation
Roy Halladay for Cliff Lee at No. 1 starter
Up is up, and the Phillies are obviously up here. Lee was spectacular when he first arrived from Cleveland and was dominant in the postseason, but he allowed at least five runs in four of his last seven starts of the regular season. Halladay has a longer track record of consistency, has not walked more than 1.9 batters per nine innings in any of the last four seasons, and posted a better ERA in a tougher division last season. It might not be a huge upgrade, but it is an upgrade.
VERDICT: UP, marginally
Jamie Moyer or Kyle Kendrick for Pedro Martinez at No. 5 starter
Although Kendrick pitched well at Triple-A and in a short stint in the majors, it is still unknown whether he has developed his change-up and slider enough to be effective as a regular starter. Moyer, meanwhile, is coming off both a disappointing season and a hellish offseason in which he underwent two surgeries and was hospitalized twice for complications. Martinez struggled in the World Series, but stabilized the fifth spot in the rotation after his midseason signing.
VERDICT: DOWN, until we know more
Cole Hamels for Cole Hamels at No. 2
I haven't talked to Hamels at all this season, but if I were him, I'd be pretty tired of hearing how bad I was last season. Consider: In his last 29 starts -- after an ugly seven-run outing against the Rockies in which his fastball was in the mid-80's, another against the Padres, and an injury-shortened performance against the Brewers -- Hamels posted a 3.94 ERA, allowed 0.95 home runs per nine innings, and struck out 7.84 batters per nine. Certainly not the Hamels we saw in 2008, but not nearly the basketcase teetering on the brink of collapse that some have portrayed.
Hamels struggled mightily in the playoffs, particularly against left-handed hitters, and there has been plenty of speculation about the importance of him developing a cutter this spring. I'm sure Hamels will experiment with a cutter, but his curveball is not a bad pitch -- he just seemed like he didn't have a ton of confidence in it last season. When Hamels' fastball is crisp and his change-up is acting the way he wants, his curveball is effective enough. I really think the inconsistency he showed last year was more a result of feeling less-than-100 percent physically after a grueling 2008, and what you saw in the postseason was a giant snowball that had accumulated girth and speed throughout the season.
VERDICT: HUNG JURY
II. Bullpen
Jose Contreras for Chan Ho Park at right-handed/multiple inning/7th-8th inning reliever.
Contreras is very much a wild card, but so was Park two years ago when the Dodgers converted him from a starter to a reliever. The big righty pitched well for the Rockies down the stretch in a relief role, and he'll provide some depth in the rotation. Still, Park was outstanding last season, and on paper this switch is a drop-off.
VERDICT: DOWN
Danys Baez for Chad Durbin at right-handed/multiple innings/7th-8th inning reliever.
Durbin is back, but his role will likely change now that Contreras and Baez are in the fold. Baez has closing experience, and he put up solid numbers last year for the Orioles in his first season back from elbow surgery. His fastball averaged 93.3 MPH last season, according to FanGraphs.com, about three miles faster than Durbin's. He also pitched well in a set-up role late in the season, and posted an excellent groundball rate.
The addition of Baez and Contreras gives the Phillies more right-handed, late-game options than they had last season, which could help keep Madson and Lidge fresh while allowing Durbin to occupy more of the role he did in 2008, when J.C. Romero provided and a healthy and effective option late in games.
VERDICT: UP
Chad Durbin for Clay Condrey at right-handed/multiple innings reliever
Condrey had a solid season last year, but was hampered by injuries late in the year and was ultimately non-tendered.
Durbin, a former starter, has been more effective in clean inning and multiple inning situations where he can afford to put men on base and work out of his own trouble.
Consider: In 18 relief appearances that lasted more than three outs last season, Durbin allowed just nine runs in 36.1 innings (1.98 ERA), allowing 1.14 walks and hits per inning.
VERDICT: UP
Antonio Bastardo for Scott Eyre at left-handed reliever
Eyre was a true lefty specialist and thrived in that role for much of the last year and a half. But with his retirement, the Phillies don't have a player to fill that role. Bastardo is the likeliest choice, although he relies heavily on his fastball, while Eyre's slider was a deadly weapon against left-handed hitters. Bastardo has plenty of upside, but he is still very much unproven.
VERDICT: DOWN
Kyle Kendrick/Jamie Moyer/Sergio Escalona for Jamie Moyer at Wild Card
Moyer performed well in long relief after losing his spot in the rotation, but his appearances were very much like starts. That said, Moyer has more major league relief experience than either Kendrick or Escalona.
VERDICT: EVEN
J.C. Romero for Brett Myers at injured reliever
A healthy return by Romero would provide a tremendous boost to the bullpen. But he is in danger of missing up to a month, and perhaps more, depending on how his surgically-repaired elbow responds in spring training.
VERDICT: HUNG JURY.
"The theme of my main 'peace'..."? Regardless, love analyses like this. Thanks— jrat83
Seriously you left out Bob Dylan ------------------------- Come writers and critics Who prophesize with your pen- And keep your eyes wide- The chance won't come again- And don't speak too soon For the wheel's still in spin- And there's no tellin' who That it's namin'.- For the loser now Will be later to win- For the times they are a-changin'. -Done-— KINGOFZED- What this article shows, most of all, is how over-specialized relief roles have become. In 1977, the Phils had McGraw, Reed, Garber, and Brusstar, and while McGraw was the "ace", each of them saw plenty of action in key roles, keeping all of them sharp, fresh, and mentally able to respond to a high-leverage assignment. All had ERAs between 2.35 and 2.75 and they combined for 378 innings. It's a superior way to manage a pen, and there's simply no reason to think it can't be done today, but no one has the stones to go out there and implement it old-school.— Bobby G
- Nice pick Murph! Blind Melon is a seriously under rated 90's rock band. Their self titled album is one of the best of that decade.— sla6yer
- "but his curveball is not a bad pitch" Hamels curveball is a bad pitch. If empirical evidence is not enough (watching it get whacked around every time he throws it), then check out this FanGraphs link: http://tinyurl.com/ycqpdhm. Under pitch type values it shows that Hamels curveball is worth negative runs (indicating a below average pitch). His fastball was also a negative value pitch last year. He was only saved by his change up. He needs to get a third pitch that works (not the curve) or regain some velocity on his fastball to set up his devastating change.— azazo26
- Letting Cliff Lee go, and missing an opportunity to have the best starting rotation in baseball for 2010: DOWN! But look, we have a marginal upgrade instead! Thanks to the Phils managing partnership keeping its revenue flow intact... Nice baseball decision!— JimmyD
- Nice article, but laced with errors: "Make sure to but the paper every day" "theme of my main peace is change" "on the day the Phillies clinced the NL East last season" "posted a better ERA in a tougher decision last season"— twc84
- Pay Steve Carlton whatever he wants to come to Spring Training and teach Hamels how to consistently throw breaking stuff that gets hitters out. Without a third pitch Hamels is a .500 pitcher. Regarding the #5 starter, I love Jamie Moyer but Pedro is a better choice than any of the other options and makes the grade here an UP.— whatamess
- In the World Series rotation Martinez was a No. 2, not a No.5. Lee should have been this year's No.2. But I feel so much better that the farm system has been restocked with a bunch of suspects from A ball from Seattle instead.— Dull
- KINGOFZED: Well done. Hat's off to you. MURPH: I love your stuff, but proofreading is a necessity. I think Hamels is very dissatisfied with his 2009 performance. Look for him to come into his own and re-establish himself as one of the game's best young arms. I disagree with Brett Myers....I think Hamels has plenty of heart.— Scorekeeper
- Murph---you are getting better with every post---keep growing, keep going, and keep us informed---Well done my man— will_wonders_never_cease
- And I see "Dull" is still regurgitating his WIP talking points---spot on "Dull"---with the handle, not the post---— will_wonders_never_cease
- Chan Ho park is still not signed. What are the chances he signs a one year deal to pitch the 7th inning again?— Dr. Michael
Comment removed.- Chan Ho Park is not signed because he wants to start. Given his performance as a starter last year I doubt he will ever be given that opportunity again. When will he realize that? Good question.— misteripi
