Addendum to outfield scenarios: Pence's value
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Addendum to outfield scenarios: Pence's value
Matt Gelb
There was not enough space in Thursday's Inquirer to detail all of the possible outfield scenarios for the 2013 Phillies, so one was prioritized: Trading Hunter Pence.
When the Phillies acquired Pence last July, he represented everything an aging contender was looking for. He was under 30, batted righthanded, and more than two years away from free agency.
Now?
Pence is having a fine season. I used that word in Thursday's story, and many have taken umbrage to that. I didn't say "good" or "great." It's just "fine," because an .834 OPS ranks 13th among National League outfielders. That's decent. His on-base percentage and slugging percentage rank second on the Phillies. He leads the Phillies with 16 home runs. That's good. His numbers with runners in scoring position are lacking. His fielding is suspect at times.
It all equates to a confusing player who is making $10.4 million in 2012, turns 30 next April and will make close to $15 million in 2013. Beyond that, he will seek superstar money once he reaches free agency for the first time.
Is he a player the Phillies want to commit to long-term?
That's a hard question to answer, and few officials have given an indication for either direction. It's why I floated the idea of trading Pence in Thursday's story.
The Phillies surrendered three Top 10 prospects for Pence last July. Jonathan Singleton ranks as Houston's No. 1 prospect; Jarred Cosart is No. 2 and Domingo Santana is sixth -- all according to Baseball America. Would Pence fetch a similar package now? No. He is one year closer to free agency.
But he still has a year of arbitration remaining, no matter how expensive it may be, and that raises his value in the trade market this July. The Phillies will seek a bounty for Cole Hamels if they attempt to trade him. But Hamels can land only so much because the acquiring team knows he is a rental player.
Pence could be worth more.
So why not take the $15 million you would spend in 2013 on one outfielder (Pence) and spend it on two? Shane Victorino's terrible season could make him more apt to accept a shorter-term deal to stay in Philadelphia. Why, you ask, would the Phillies want him? Well, he's still solid defensively and it's clear the impending contract situation has affected his play. Maybe the next deal relieves pressure.
Pence could possibly fetch a decent third-base prospect or a younger outfielder. The free-agent market is flush with outfield options like Michael Bourn, B.J. Upton, Melky Cabrera, Angel Pagan, Nick Swisher, Carlos Quentin, Cody Ross, and Delmon Young. Pair one of them with Victorino and maybe you could spend between $15 - $20 million on two outfielders in 2013. If Pence stays, it's much more expensive. Plus, now you've restocked with possibly two decent prospects in return for Pence.
Andre Ethier's recent five-year, $85 million set the bar for a 30-year-old outfielder with a career .844 OPS. Pence has a career .829 OPS and would probably command just as much, if not more, when his time arrives. Again, is that a commitment the Phillies are willing to make?
If not, they should trade Pence when his value is at its highest. And that is right now.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
Specialagents aka "Dogbiscuitthedope" "Is on Record" of blatant and deliberate falsehood and prevarication, which I do not have the time and space to respond to, and also believed that Amaro constructed a good team for 2012... news for you dummy, go look at the standings ...I'm sure that calling people "dope" and "tool" will help exonerate the worst g.m. in baseball— warbiscuit- Dope — DogBiscuitthedope
- Tool — DogBiscuitthedope
- clueless rube's legacy: $36 million on Ibanez, $125 million on Howard, $24 million on Blanton, $18 million on Polanco, $4 million on Baez, $33 million on Rollins, $50 million on Papelbon, $7.5 million on Kendrick, etc....key bench and bullpen players: Bruntlett, Francisco, Thome, Bowker, Herndon, Martinez, Qualls, Contreras, Wigginton, etc... championships won: 0.... Current status of minor league system: F...contract status of best player in organization (Hamels): to be free agent...intelligence quotient of manager: 82... Do you want this man running your baseball team?— warbiscuit
- IDIOTBISCUIT I guess Rube needed your crystal ball to see that RH would get hurt, dope. Funny last yr you complained about the RH contract because you wanted Pujols or Fiedler, so on planet Toolbiscuit who would be playing 1st? On planet Moronbisuit who would be the closer? DOPE. Hey you wanted Pena at 7 mil with #'s worst than Wiggy, Gonzalez and Lee (still out of baseball LOL LOL), funny you call Bruntlett worthless garbage when Rube signed him, when he played under Gillick in 08 I guess he was OK on planet MORONBISCUIT. Do you still have your Iguchi jersey? And last but not least you applauded the Qualls signing when it happened. IDIOT — DogBiscuitthedope
- if over 3 1/2 years you end up with the highest budget in the league and put out such a bad roster and have lost all your prosects, and have nothing to show for it but some divison titles with all that, then it is apparent that management had made not one, not 2, nor 3, not 4 but a series of institutional costly mistakes that turned out very very wrong and they were roundly criticized outside of Philly when they were being made --e.g. every single journalist and baseball observer commented that the Howard extension was the most ridiculus thing they had could conceive of, the Ibanez signing was ripped by all, the Blanton contract was a head scratcher to anyone outside of Philly, the Lee trade to Seattle was unfathomable to anyone outside of Amaro fans, the Papelbon deal was voted worst contract of the winter in a poll of g.m.'s, etc etc ..even his "win now" was faulty because Ruben's 2009, 2010 and 2011 all lacked depth, balance, bench and/or bullpen and therefore predictably faltered in post-season... unlike Gillick who in 2008 beefed up the team's bench and bullpen to win the Series, Amaro sat back with his big-name July acquisitions and went into post-season relying in too much trash on deeply flawed teams that failed and so he threw away everything for nothing...Amaro's teams won as many championships as Pirates and Mets, but those teams are now far superior and much cheaper— warbiscuit
- The season's lost so blowup the team no later than July 31. Start with trading both Victorino and Pence for as much as we can get. Play Hector Luna in CF. Play Mayberry in RF. Trade Lee for a couple of immediate impact players plus a few AAA and AA prospects. Keep Hamels and sign him NOW to a 6-year $150 million contract. He's only 28 and will probably win a Cy Young in a year or two. Rebuild around him with the young team. Fire Cholly and his coaching staff and bring in Ryan Sandberg from Lehigh to manage the young, developing team so we can contend in 2-3 years.— 1republican
- This article really sucks! Everyday there is a call to trade someone on this team by one of you so called experts! This team has played many baseball games over a seven year period, and at a very high quality! Due to injury, this is a bad season. Period. Give some praise to these gentlemem who put phightin back in philly baseball. I say lets honor and enjoy them while we have them 'cause eventually, yes, your demands for trades, salary dumps and the business of baseball will always continue.— coastflyer
- I love these boards, always the same idiots making stupid comments. Rube has done a great job, no argument there considering we have won 5 strait division titles, 102 games last year, 2 WS appearances, 1 WS win...That's the result of bad management? Just pain common sense that a simple 10 year old can understand and yet we have the same 5-10 people complaining no matter what..amazing— TexasYankee
- I don't think Lee is going anywhere. The best bet is to trade Hamels for some top prospects (Olt/Castellanos and some other pieces), as well as trade Victorino, Polanco, Blanton, Pierre and others. They should listen on Pence, but unless they could get someone like Gose, and some other pieces for him, they probably have to keep him at least until the offseason. Then in the off-season they can make a run at Bourn to play CF assuming they trade Pence. I'm not sure if Bourn will get more than the $15 mil a year that Pence will get for 2013, but knowing that his agent is Boras, he is likely to get something like 5 and $90 for an annual $18 Mil.
I'm just not sure how they can sign Hamels for $27 mil a year and expect to have enough money to fill out the offense. I think people are dreaming if they think the Phillies could get two can't miss prospects and two AAA prospects for Lee.
Now, if you are alright with a line up of (in some order) Brown, Mayberry, Pence, Asche, Rollins, Utley, Howard, Ruiz, pitcher, then ok, go ahead and sign Hamels for $27 mil a year and have a rotation of Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Worley and Cloyd/May and rely on minimum salary guys to fill out the bullpen around Bastardo, Kendrick and Papelbon. I'm not really sure that is an upgrade over this year. They need to get younger pretty much everywhere over the next few seasons so by getting Olt/Castellanos to play 3B, maybe getting Gose to play center (or signing Bourn), bringing up Brown to see once and for all if he can play with consistent playing time, and bringing up Cloyd to be the 5th starter, will get them on their way.— sjuhawk416 - @texasyankee --same moronic comment from you giving Clueless Rube credit for WS championship that predated him (and architects of that team like Lamar and Arbuckle are gone) and giving Rube credit for winning 3 division titles with core of team that predated him ... when not only didn't he adequately replace the core players when they left or declined but instead extended many of them beyond their usefulness -- Amaro has not acquired a single decent young player or prospect EVER and now has one of the worst teams in baseball with no future..you mister are the imbecile— warbiscuit
- Rube has done a great job :what team are you looking at the NATIONALS thinking dumb rube is the G M?When dumb rube took over we had a CHAMPIONSHIP team now the great job is in the CELLER.The only way they are where they are is because of DUMB RUBE.When Werth left DUMB RUBE did nothing to replace him except go get a pitcher.That spot has been missing for three years.Pence is nor was the answer.Rube thinks a pitcher will make everything o k .— tobyjoe
- Rube has done a great job :what team are you looking at the NATIONALS thinking dumb rube is the G M?When dumb rube took over we had a CHAMPIONSHIP team now the great job is in the CELLER.The only way they are where they are is because of DUMB RUBE.When Werth left DUMB RUBE did nothing to replace him except go get a pitcher.That spot has been missing for three years.Pence is nor was the answer.Rube thinks a pitcher will make everything o k .That thought alone tells you he is a stupid,dumb baseball person.Now is the time to blow up this mess dumb rube made.How can anyone be a phillies fan and see your team in as bad a shape as this and not see or blame the person the caused it?Sure we had injuries,but as the G M he should gotten a first basemen for Howard.He had to know Utley would have the same problem as last year.He should have taken some time and intrest in Chase's winter.There was no excurse for him not looking into it.Sorry but this man should take responsabitly for this celler dwelling team.— tobyjoe
- Don't know why the fanbase has turned on Pence so much this year last year everyone loved him. The problem is you've got a lot of guys that don't get on base, JRolle, Victorino, Mayberry and a godawful bullpen. Rube is out of his depth they need a slash and burn GM to turn this around.— subgen
- All you phillies fans slaming WARBISCUIT should have paid attention when he and others kept saying how bad DUMB RUBE intercoursed up this team .He's been saying the same thing starting with spring training.You guys are such die-hard phillies fans you did not see the baseball aspect of what he was saying.— tobyjoe
