Addendum to outfield scenarios: Pence's value
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Addendum to outfield scenarios: Pence's value
Matt Gelb
There was not enough space in Thursday's Inquirer to detail all of the possible outfield scenarios for the 2013 Phillies, so one was prioritized: Trading Hunter Pence.
When the Phillies acquired Pence last July, he represented everything an aging contender was looking for. He was under 30, batted righthanded, and more than two years away from free agency.
Now?
Pence is having a fine season. I used that word in Thursday's story, and many have taken umbrage to that. I didn't say "good" or "great." It's just "fine," because an .834 OPS ranks 13th among National League outfielders. That's decent. His on-base percentage and slugging percentage rank second on the Phillies. He leads the Phillies with 16 home runs. That's good. His numbers with runners in scoring position are lacking. His fielding is suspect at times.
It all equates to a confusing player who is making $10.4 million in 2012, turns 30 next April and will make close to $15 million in 2013. Beyond that, he will seek superstar money once he reaches free agency for the first time.
Is he a player the Phillies want to commit to long-term?
That's a hard question to answer, and few officials have given an indication for either direction. It's why I floated the idea of trading Pence in Thursday's story.
The Phillies surrendered three Top 10 prospects for Pence last July. Jonathan Singleton ranks as Houston's No. 1 prospect; Jarred Cosart is No. 2 and Domingo Santana is sixth -- all according to Baseball America. Would Pence fetch a similar package now? No. He is one year closer to free agency.
But he still has a year of arbitration remaining, no matter how expensive it may be, and that raises his value in the trade market this July. The Phillies will seek a bounty for Cole Hamels if they attempt to trade him. But Hamels can land only so much because the acquiring team knows he is a rental player.
Pence could be worth more.
So why not take the $15 million you would spend in 2013 on one outfielder (Pence) and spend it on two? Shane Victorino's terrible season could make him more apt to accept a shorter-term deal to stay in Philadelphia. Why, you ask, would the Phillies want him? Well, he's still solid defensively and it's clear the impending contract situation has affected his play. Maybe the next deal relieves pressure.
Pence could possibly fetch a decent third-base prospect or a younger outfielder. The free-agent market is flush with outfield options like Michael Bourn, B.J. Upton, Melky Cabrera, Angel Pagan, Nick Swisher, Carlos Quentin, Cody Ross, and Delmon Young. Pair one of them with Victorino and maybe you could spend between $15 - $20 million on two outfielders in 2013. If Pence stays, it's much more expensive. Plus, now you've restocked with possibly two decent prospects in return for Pence.
Andre Ethier's recent five-year, $85 million set the bar for a 30-year-old outfielder with a career .844 OPS. Pence has a career .829 OPS and would probably command just as much, if not more, when his time arrives. Again, is that a commitment the Phillies are willing to make?
If not, they should trade Pence when his value is at its highest. And that is right now.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
@war, seems like your detractors used the all-star break to re-form and refocus their attacks on you. Or, as you pointed out, it's one crazed Phils employee with multiple handles.
I guess the truth hurts for all of us who love the Phils, like I have for 53 years now, but it doesn't change the fact that we had a 102-win team and now we're a fair bet to lose almost that many this year. Not quite sure why there are so many whom don't want to acknowledge that.
Keep the faith, brother!— advantasux- Well gee; ask yourself what is different from the 102 win team to the team on the field in the first half? Ryan got hurt; did you expect to get Pujols to replace him? We had a very strong bullpen last year, there were several injuries to key members and a couple who performed extremely well last year (Bastardo/Stutes) have come up small, Lee has underperformed and Halliday got hurt, but I guess you and IDIOTBISCUIT the great saw that coming and expected RAJ to see it coming? — DogBiscuitthedope
- problem i see/saw with Hunter...his BA with RISP. horrific i think. but pressure on him to carry the offense had something to do with it.he's not a MAIN man...good contributor though.— righty
- problem i see/saw with Hunter...his BA with RISP. horrific i think. but pressure on him to carry the offense had something to do with it.he's not a MAIN man...good contributor though.— righty
- problem i see/saw with Hunter...his BA with RISP. horrific i think. but pressure on him to carry the offense had something to do with it.he's not a MAIN man...good contributor though.— righty
- I don't want Victorino back at any cost. It's over. Trade Pence for a couple major league ready outfield prospects (like Wil Myers KC) and trade Victorino for another top outfield prospect. Trade Hamels to Texas for 3B Mike Olt. You can sign Hamels back and sign Michael Bourn in the off season. Now you have a good leadoff hitter and CFer and plug in Olt at 3b and 2 of 3 outfield prospects (including D. Brown). Now you've gotten younger with more energy and still have strong veteran base of Bourn,Utley,Rollins, Chooch,Howard. Let the young kids break in at the bottom of the lineup and in 2 years when Utley, Rollins and Chooch are done they will be ready to hit in the middle of the lineup. The Pence, Victorino and Blanton money will allow you to sign Hamels and Bourn.— REL3
- warbiscuit - I would love someone to run your IP address against other posters on this site. Guarantee we would all find at least 4-5 accounts linked back. Get a life dude.— PhillyIllini
- I don't think anybody worries too much about Pence's salary this year or next.
He has had a tough year so far.
He clearly has some talent.
The big question is......
Are we going to try and sign him to a huge long term contract by the end of next year ?
I think he may have hit a low for his performance this year.Don't be too surpised if he tears it up in the second half.
I have not seen anybody complaining about his effort - in fact, many have commented that he is pressing and trying too hard.
My own personal opinion - Hunter Pence is a fundementally flawed ballplayer on both sides of the ball.
Did you notice how little he has been intentionally walked this year. Even with runners in scorng position, and the game on the line, teams did not fear him. The results proved them right.
He is a modern day Dave Kingman.No way to make him change for better.
I think he is too old to be taught new tricks - how to play the game right. He has got to where he is on natural talent but he is stuck there. The superstar status that was projected for him will probably never materialize.
The obvious conclusion for me is to trade him and get a realy good prospect for him. I think he has that much trade value now. Wait until next year and that trade value may evaporate.— candidly - I kinda like everyone we got, except for the pitching staff. We need relievers badly, thats our main problem rite now. We should try to make a last ditch effort to make a run at the playoffs, and when we know for sure, then bring in the young guns and see what they got. Sit the so called super stars, and give the farm system some experience in the majors. This way you know what you got when you need to call them up, instead of just hoping they can play at this level. And,the team will slowly get younger and better quicker, rather than waiting for a prospect to turn 30 before you sign him. They keep they guys in AAA to darn long in my opinion.— huntnmike3666
- We have warbiscuit on the columns on the Phils and charliegarner25 on the Eagles to show the true idiocy of some "fans." Their moronic posts are further dumbed down by their butchery of the English language. Please spare us and go get lives and stop with the exercises in cluelessness.— phillyinsd
- Ad nauseum. Correct use of the word, Biscuit. Part of the reason other posters jump you here is the fact we have heard your arguments....ad nauseum. When they have a legitimate point, you ignore it, and go back into your tired same old line. I for one, agree with some of it, but when you ignore other legitimate points, it makes some of us want to call you on it. Please say something about Singleton that proves his blue chip status. And, while you're at it, give us a break down on JA Happ and his career in Houston. What GM would not have signed Lincecum long term? And, if Cain implodes, you'll say...Rube would have signed him for 8 years.— dirttracker
- A question for all those criticizing RAJ's critics: If these players had the name METS or BRAVES on the front of the jersey, would you think this was a great team? Keep in mind, many loyal supporters of the team criticized Amaro the day he sent Lee to the Mariners. Acquiring Halladay was a very good move(still feel that way), but dealing Lee made NO sense, nor did keeping Blanton for 3 more years. Back to present, regarding Pence, I would deal him if some team was offering LEGIT prospects for him. The Phils have needed a 3B prospect since Scott Rolen turned pro(more than 15 yrs ago); they actually tried Utley at 3B(in the minors)because of the dearth at that position. The Phils need outfield prospects and they need catching too, so if someone makes a good offer for Pence, RAJ should take it and be happy.— 76erfn
- In case you haven't heard, the reason the Phils have lost so many games in the first half is that they didn't score many runs. The Phils can't afford to trade Pence this season because they need his run production. Even with Howard and Utley returning and Pence in the lineup, the Phils still need more run production. They need to add another power hitter to the lineup, not remove one. It's true the Phils could trade Pence and replace him with two less-expensive but serviceable outfielders. Now is not the time to do it, however. If the Phils are able to sign the likes of Bourne and Cabrera this off-season, they can then decide how they want to round out their outfield. If they trade Pence now and are unable to sign Bourne and Cabrera in the off-season, the Phils could be in trouble. Pence is unorthodox but he is a hard-nosed player who the Phils are much better keeping than trading.— onthebucks
- @dirtracker -- i repeat myself ad nauseum because they are infinite nauseating morons like you making the same idiotic rebuttals.. Amaro traded away over 12 of the Phils best prospects -- Lamar resigned over this. Some of the 12, like Happ, might end up being mediocre or worse but some will inevitably end up being stars or even potential superstars --- and many of the prospects traded away like Singelton,
D'Arnaud, Gose and Villar are highly coveted by many and are virtually untouchable, and Phils do not have enough chips to get them back even if they wanted to now. When you trade 3 propsects for 1 bona fide ace like Lee in 2009 and it pays off, great, but when you continue with this as your exclusive method of trying to win, and fail to get any young talent whatsosever over 4 years and give away literally your whole future to "win now" but never do win now because you failed to put toegther a 25-man roster with depth, balance, bench and bullpen capable of winning in the post-season, then all you did was waste a lot of money and prospects and some players' best years for nothing and you have failed and should be fired— warbiscuit - Yes he should have signed Derek Lee, Gonzalez, Carlos Pena, Madson, Iscuhi, or Ramirez like you suggested? Praised the Qualls signing, called Pierre complete garbage, call Halladay signing a mistake, call Happ a super talent ( lol one of your best lines dopey), 2 months ago critized RAJ for letting Lidge go (LOL), even critized not resigning Worth AFTER his putrid performance last year, you said his 200 strikeouts would be worth his leadership, LOL, know wonder you make dopey statements after the fact cause every attempt at baseball knowledge before hand fails miserably. iDIOT — DogBiscuitthedope
