Addendum to outfield scenarios: Pence's value
The latest Phillies and baseball news from Philly.com.
Addendum to outfield scenarios: Pence's value
Matt Gelb
There was not enough space in Thursday's Inquirer to detail all of the possible outfield scenarios for the 2013 Phillies, so one was prioritized: Trading Hunter Pence.
When the Phillies acquired Pence last July, he represented everything an aging contender was looking for. He was under 30, batted righthanded, and more than two years away from free agency.
Now?
Pence is having a fine season. I used that word in Thursday's story, and many have taken umbrage to that. I didn't say "good" or "great." It's just "fine," because an .834 OPS ranks 13th among National League outfielders. That's decent. His on-base percentage and slugging percentage rank second on the Phillies. He leads the Phillies with 16 home runs. That's good. His numbers with runners in scoring position are lacking. His fielding is suspect at times.
It all equates to a confusing player who is making $10.4 million in 2012, turns 30 next April and will make close to $15 million in 2013. Beyond that, he will seek superstar money once he reaches free agency for the first time.
Is he a player the Phillies want to commit to long-term?
That's a hard question to answer, and few officials have given an indication for either direction. It's why I floated the idea of trading Pence in Thursday's story.
The Phillies surrendered three Top 10 prospects for Pence last July. Jonathan Singleton ranks as Houston's No. 1 prospect; Jarred Cosart is No. 2 and Domingo Santana is sixth -- all according to Baseball America. Would Pence fetch a similar package now? No. He is one year closer to free agency.
But he still has a year of arbitration remaining, no matter how expensive it may be, and that raises his value in the trade market this July. The Phillies will seek a bounty for Cole Hamels if they attempt to trade him. But Hamels can land only so much because the acquiring team knows he is a rental player.
Pence could be worth more.
So why not take the $15 million you would spend in 2013 on one outfielder (Pence) and spend it on two? Shane Victorino's terrible season could make him more apt to accept a shorter-term deal to stay in Philadelphia. Why, you ask, would the Phillies want him? Well, he's still solid defensively and it's clear the impending contract situation has affected his play. Maybe the next deal relieves pressure.
Pence could possibly fetch a decent third-base prospect or a younger outfielder. The free-agent market is flush with outfield options like Michael Bourn, B.J. Upton, Melky Cabrera, Angel Pagan, Nick Swisher, Carlos Quentin, Cody Ross, and Delmon Young. Pair one of them with Victorino and maybe you could spend between $15 - $20 million on two outfielders in 2013. If Pence stays, it's much more expensive. Plus, now you've restocked with possibly two decent prospects in return for Pence.
Andre Ethier's recent five-year, $85 million set the bar for a 30-year-old outfielder with a career .844 OPS. Pence has a career .829 OPS and would probably command just as much, if not more, when his time arrives. Again, is that a commitment the Phillies are willing to make?
If not, they should trade Pence when his value is at its highest. And that is right now.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
Warbiscuit is right,as usual!— dtsjr- Pence was brought here for one reason - to provide the offence the Phils needed to make it back to the series. Can't argue with the strategy, but Rubes choice of Pence fell short...And that trade was a killer, justified ONLY if the Phils won it all.
So, unless the Phils come roaring back Pence has no place on a team that will likely be rebuilding.
I would love to get some idea of what ownership is thinking. They gave Rube carte blanche to build a team to win the series. Highest payroll in the NL and limping along in last place. Does that even register with them? Is it strictly the bottom line or is anyone there having second thoughts about the Rube hire?
— Cameiros - Got to keep Pence, especailly with Howards power numbers in steady decline. Move Victorino, he's gone from bad player to bad clubhouse guy to boot and can't steal bases or hit leadoff, he fits nowhere now. Hate to say it but Brown is really the key to this thign working next year. THey dont' have the cap room to sign a solid LF if they get Bourn and will have to dumb in other area's like Blanton and maybe Kendrik. Otherwise trade Cole or Lee.— JuanSamuel4prez
- if ... if Clueless Rube were running the Giants, he'd already have extended Lincecum to a long-term overpriced contract (era over 6.0) and would end up losing Cain and Bumgarner..he would have never have even conceived of trading a Sanchez for Melky Cabrera and would never have acquired a Vogelsong (whom Rube actually gave to te Giants for free)— warbiscuit
- Typical TOOLBISCUIT babble, I don't remember you stating 4 months ago that Lincecum would implode and Cain would be a team ace? Of course not you simply wait until after the fact and scream like a dopey tool. Funny last year you blasted Rube for not seeing the talent in Mayberry, jumped off that bandwagon pretty quick didn’t you? BTW Madson still has less blown saves tan Pabalbon. IDIOT — DogBiscuitthedope
- I would trade Pence as fast as I trade Miss Vicky.Pence is a good ball player on a team like HOUSTON.He looked awsome because he was the best thing on that awful team.I told people he was a good player ,but not on a team like last years phillies.Guess how many told me how right I was?Miss Vicky -they should just let that piece of trash walk.Never saw what everyone saw in him.After he signed his contract his head got bigger than barry bonds.— tobyjoe
- if Rube were running the RedSox, he'd still be paying Nomar Gariappara— warbiscuit
- "Nick Swisher, Carlos Quentin, Cody Ross, and Delmon Young." Are you serious ? I've seen Quentin and Swisher play in Chicago.. there's a reason they are both gone. Neither can hold a candle to Pence. Yeah you can trade Pence and get junk back but they already have junk in Pierre, Nix, Wigginton, Martinez. This 'trade him cause he's worth something' is stupid. They have no LFer. Their CFer is in another world. Pence is the 2nd best player on the team. Yeah he must be worth something so lets trade him.
— sfofan - The Phillies would be fools to trade Pcnce. Despite his shortcomings, he has shown consistency throughout his carrier, .270 or better average, 20 to 30 home runs and 70 to 100 RBIs. He is a solid #5 or 6 hitter. Consistantly good hitters are hard to find. Victorino saves a lot of runs with his glove. His hitting problems I believe are mostly from being moved up and down in the lineup too much. He does better in the leadoff or Two Hole when he gets more fastballs. But those slots are already filled and he only gets limited time in those slots. I don't see the Phlllies getting anything better in return for them. Just something equal or worse.— Grapost
- "texasyankee" aka "dogbiscuitthedope" aka "specialagentmulder" - same drivel, same style, same person, same blogger -- do you not understand that monitoring this site to attack Amaro-critics does not re-establish his competence when his idiotic moves are now plain to see and his team is 13 games below .500?— warbiscuit
- Rube got nothing of value in exchange for one of the most desirable players in baseball at the time -- Cliff Lee --when a dozen teams would have given their best prospects while Rube went to 1 team and gave Lee away for virtually nothing... his chances of getting anything in value for Hamels are equally dubious..— warbiscuit
- Pence is just a hard guy to understand. Few of us, if any, weren't fans of the guy's last year once he arrived and lent a new energy to the team. He faltered in the playoffs and, this year, he simply seems to constantly be off-balance, both at the plate and in the field.
But none of us have ever stated that he plays for himself, as so many of us have observed about Miss Vicki and Mr. Poppins.
I'd much prefer keeping Pence and see if he can reattain his form of last year. Meanwhile, I'm praying daily that the genius GM sends Miss Vicki away. But, if form holds, Amaro will be re-upping him any day now.— advantasux - Rube's "win now" strategy was faulty because Ruben's 2009, 2010 and 2011 teams all lacked depth, balance, bench and/or bullpen and therefore predictably faltered in post-season... unlike Gillick who in 2008 beefed up the team's bench and bullpen to win the Series, Amaro sat back with his big-name July acquisitions and went into post-season relying on too much trash on deeply flawed teams that failed --so he threw away everything for nothing...Amaro's teams won as many championships as Pirates and Mets, but those teams are now far superior and much cheaper— warbiscuit
-
for all you blithering idiots, here's my irrebutable argument: "37-50, 14 GB, last place"... until Amaro wins a championship, why don't you all go defend Bill Conlin and Jerry Sandusky?— warbiscuit - @Eilex --if you can read, I've written ad nauseum about all the alternative moves that Amaro could and should have done -- and you don't merit further explanation ..now begone imbecile... your moron constructed a team that is 37-50 in last place— warbiscuit
