Addendum to outfield scenarios: Pence's value
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Addendum to outfield scenarios: Pence's value
Matt Gelb
There was not enough space in Thursday's Inquirer to detail all of the possible outfield scenarios for the 2013 Phillies, so one was prioritized: Trading Hunter Pence.
When the Phillies acquired Pence last July, he represented everything an aging contender was looking for. He was under 30, batted righthanded, and more than two years away from free agency.
Now?
Pence is having a fine season. I used that word in Thursday's story, and many have taken umbrage to that. I didn't say "good" or "great." It's just "fine," because an .834 OPS ranks 13th among National League outfielders. That's decent. His on-base percentage and slugging percentage rank second on the Phillies. He leads the Phillies with 16 home runs. That's good. His numbers with runners in scoring position are lacking. His fielding is suspect at times.
It all equates to a confusing player who is making $10.4 million in 2012, turns 30 next April and will make close to $15 million in 2013. Beyond that, he will seek superstar money once he reaches free agency for the first time.
Is he a player the Phillies want to commit to long-term?
That's a hard question to answer, and few officials have given an indication for either direction. It's why I floated the idea of trading Pence in Thursday's story.
The Phillies surrendered three Top 10 prospects for Pence last July. Jonathan Singleton ranks as Houston's No. 1 prospect; Jarred Cosart is No. 2 and Domingo Santana is sixth -- all according to Baseball America. Would Pence fetch a similar package now? No. He is one year closer to free agency.
But he still has a year of arbitration remaining, no matter how expensive it may be, and that raises his value in the trade market this July. The Phillies will seek a bounty for Cole Hamels if they attempt to trade him. But Hamels can land only so much because the acquiring team knows he is a rental player.
Pence could be worth more.
So why not take the $15 million you would spend in 2013 on one outfielder (Pence) and spend it on two? Shane Victorino's terrible season could make him more apt to accept a shorter-term deal to stay in Philadelphia. Why, you ask, would the Phillies want him? Well, he's still solid defensively and it's clear the impending contract situation has affected his play. Maybe the next deal relieves pressure.
Pence could possibly fetch a decent third-base prospect or a younger outfielder. The free-agent market is flush with outfield options like Michael Bourn, B.J. Upton, Melky Cabrera, Angel Pagan, Nick Swisher, Carlos Quentin, Cody Ross, and Delmon Young. Pair one of them with Victorino and maybe you could spend between $15 - $20 million on two outfielders in 2013. If Pence stays, it's much more expensive. Plus, now you've restocked with possibly two decent prospects in return for Pence.
Andre Ethier's recent five-year, $85 million set the bar for a 30-year-old outfielder with a career .844 OPS. Pence has a career .829 OPS and would probably command just as much, if not more, when his time arrives. Again, is that a commitment the Phillies are willing to make?
If not, they should trade Pence when his value is at its highest. And that is right now.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
I'd love to see Michael Bourn playing center field next season for the Phils.— BobbyD- Regarding warbiscuit: don't shoot the messenger!
The fact remains: under Supreme Leader Kim Jong Rube's brief but destructive reign, the Phillies have accumulated the most expensive, going nowhere pile of last place doggie diamonds in National League history.— dasher 
Comment removed.- Amaro has never acuired a single quality prospect or a single good young player... EVER... in 3 1/2 years, despite paying out hundreds of millions of dollars and squandering a dozen of the Phils best prospects...now he could not recoup quality prospects like Singleton, Gose, Villar, Cosart, etc even if he traded away his entire roster... that is not an exaggeration, it's an unfortunate fact— warbiscuit
- Calm down. We won 102 games last season; few foresaw the off-the-cliff season we're having. This year is good for us long-term as we'll deal for youth for a change. I'm all for trading Hamels (if he won't sign by the trade deadline), Victorino, Pence, Blanton -- whatever it takes to get some up-and-coming talent in return. Is Amaro capable of doing that? We'll see, but my guess is yes, he is. He just needed this kick-in-the-pants season to get there.
— eman - God bless all kinds of fans, but you can tell who really pays attention and who knows about baseball. There are those who think the Phillies might go somewhere this year--virtually impossible. Those who think they should trade what they have and rebuild-- as warbiscuit points out, they have very little that is desirable because of contracts. There are those who say "bring up the kids from Lehigh Valley" who don't realize that most the guys there are veteran journeymen too. Gelb is right. Pence is probably their most valuable trading chip. He would be a big upgrade for the Dodgers, Red Sox, Giants, Pirates, and even the Yankees. Teams have been asking about Pierre, who might bring more than Victorino at this point. Both are two month rentals but you have to pay one 10x more than the other and other teams (not Amaro) take those things into consideration. I.E. even if Rollins is better than Galvis over the 2012-2014 season, is he worth 20x more salary and which one would you rather place your bets on for 2015?— jtj06
- jt106: Galvis hit .220 using steroids. I'm way more comfortable with Rollins at SS.— eman
- Only the Phillies were dumb enough to go after Bug Eyes last year. That speaks volumes, regardless of what the fat 50yo little league bench sitters in the lower bowl wearing their Pence jersies want to believe.— Wilhelm Von Humboldt
- while smart teams like Yankees traded for Granderson, Giants for Melky, Braves for Bourne, Cards signed Beltran, etc, clueless rube traded away the Phils future for 2014 through 2018 for Pence who can't hold any one of those jockstraps and has no substantial value in any potential trade— warbiscuit
- Hunter Pence is a skilled player of impeccable character who gives 100% plus. As an individual, he is a winner in every way, shape and form. He is the type of player to build around, not trade away.— B.B. DeBoop
- jtj06 -- yes Dodgers, Red Sox, Giants or Pirates might be willing to take Pence but they sure wouldn't offer a blue chip prospect like Singleton for him... no way, they're not nearly as stupid as Ruben— warbiscuit
- just get rid of him-THE GUY IS TOTALLY MINDLESS-Amaro never did his homework on this guy.Like I said before,Ed Wade, although back with the Phillies-fleeced the PHILLIES of there top prospects for this clown!!— flyers11
- I hope they keep Pence. He's a very good supporting player in a good lineup. Kind of like the Jayson Werth role. Plus they need some stability. Other than Ruiz, he's the best player in the lineup. They have enough expiring contracts to enable them to get Bourn or a third baseman and they can trade Halladay or Hamels (and keep the other) to get either Bourn or a third baseman.— AvoidSundanceVacations
- Look at the numbers of the allstar outfielders and Pence is right there with them ...he is having a good season and he has the potential still to be great and hit 315-330 with 25-30 home runs and over 100 RBI's...how many outfielders can do that and possbly steal 20 bases...you fool don't know anything about baeball...his fielding was not a problem until this year— phillysmart
- Vinnie, cheers— tommy_the_k
