A wild primer
The latest Phillies and baseball news from Philly.com.
A wild primer
Matt Gelb
The Phillies inconceivably stand three games back of a postseason berth for a multitude of reasons. The best explanation for how a team, once considered dead by many of its members, is luck and good timing.
Dissect it, and you'll see an old trend.
Their starting pitchers have a 3.01 ERA in their last 29 games. The Phillies have a 20-9 record during that stretch. It was the unit that brought so much success and a celebrated moniker in 2011.
It is what they must ride if this miracle of a comeback is to actually happen.
Tonight, in Houston, a 25-year-old junkballer named Tyler Cloyd takes the ball on short rest. He's the first Phillies pitcher asked to start on short rest this season. Even against a moribund squad like the Astros, there is still danger.
With days off, the Phillies can massage their rotation so that Cloyd makes only two more starts after Thursday, both against middling National League East teams.
9/13 @HOU: Cloyd
9/14 @HOU: Hamels
9/15 @HOU: Kendrick
9/16 @HOU: Halladay
9/17 @NYM: Lee
9/18 @NYM: Cloyd
9/19 @NYM: Hamels
9/20: OFF
9/21 vs. ATL: Kendrick
9/22 vs. ATL: Halladay
9/23 vs. ATL: Lee
9/24: OFF
9/25 vs. WAS: Hamels
9/26 vs. WAS: Kendrick
9/27 vs. WAS: Halladay
9/28 @MIA: Lee
9/29 @MIA: Cloyd
9/30 @MIA: Hamels
10/1 @WAS: Kendrick
10/2 @WAS: Halladay
10/3 @WAS: Lee
10/4: OFF
10/5 WILD CARD: Hamels
It's not a terrible scenario; every pitcher is going on regular rest (or extra rest in some instances). That has Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee pitching on the two final days of the season and Cole Hamels in line for a wild card one-game playoff start on regular rest.
A tiebreaker complicates things. If the Phillies tie another team for the second wild card berth, that tiebreaker is played Thursday. Home field is decided by season series records.
The Phillies had a winning record against three contenders:
vs. ARI: 4-2
vs. LAD: 2-5
vs. MIL: 5-2
vs. PIT: 3-4
vs. STL: 5-2
That means tiebreakers against Arizona, Milwaukee and St. Louis would be played at Citizens Bank Park on Thursday, Oct. 4. If the Phillies tie Los Angeles or Pittsburgh, the game is on the road.
Then, should the Phillies win a tiebreaker, the wild card one-game playoff is Friday, Oct. 5, probably in Atlanta. So the travel schedule, theoretically, could look like such:
Oct. 3 at Washington
Oct. 4 at Los Angeles
Oct. 5 at Atlanta
Godspeed.
Such a situation would necessitate starters on short rest to avoid using Cloyd. Hamels would pitch the tiebreaker on three days' rest with Kyle Kendrick starting the one-game playoff on three days' rest.
Of the six contenders (yes, we'll include Arizona), Arizona and St. Louis are tied for the softest remaining schedule by opponents' winning percentage.
STL: .464 -- 9 home (3 WAS, 3 CIN, 3 HOU), 10 road (4 LAD, 3 CHC, 3 HOU)
ARI: .464 -- 12 home (3 SFG, 3 SDP, 3 COL, 3 CHC), 7 road (3 SFG, 4 COL)
PIT: .467 -- 9 home (3 CIN, 3 ATL, 3 MIL), 11 road (4 NYM, 4 CHC, 3 HOU)
PHI: .493 -- 6 home (3 WAS, 3 ATL), 13 road (3 WAS, 3 NYM, 3 MIA, 4 HOU)
MIL: .504 -- 9 home (3 SDP, 3 NYM, 3 HOU), 10 road (4 WAS, 3 CIN, 3 PIT)
LAD: .532 -- 10 home (3 SFG, 4 STL, 3 COL), 9 road (3 WAS, 3 CIN, 3 SDP)
St. Louis heads to Los Angeles for a four-game series starting Thursday. The Phillies will be watching.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
8/15: "not to discount the dumbest manager in baseball turning a close game into a sure loss by inexplicably using his worst pitchers in a 1-run game in the 9th inning, but Halladay shows once again why he he's most overrated pitcher in baseball and has never made the WS ...before giving up the game-losing hr to Dobbs, Dobbs was hitting 1.000 against Halladay this season and over .500 for career...you'd think that a smart pitcher would change his approach or at least pitch carefully but Halladay just keeps throwing Dobbs first pitch meatballs that Dobbs fully expects... Halladay blows these games quite consistently even when he was so-called "good"— warbiscuit- Ernie Banks never won a WS, I guess he sucked too. moronic tool. I've demonstrated what a complete idiot you are, I can stop now because your above post does a great job on its own. Funny part is the fact you reposted it like some badge of moronic stupidity. Yeah he is quite a choke artist, that playoff no-hitter was a real choke job and that game 5 win in 2010 but yeah that 1 run he gave up in 2011 last game was brutal. what a complete moronic idiot — DogBiscuitthedope
- yes "dogbisuithedope", I stand by all my statements (when quoted accurately in context) ever made about Rollins (overpaid but often clutch and would be largely uncriticized if not batting lead-off), Papelbum (severely overpaid, with a lot of standard saves against bad teams but a propensity to blow big games at the worst possible times), Halladay (2 terrific years but now on serious decline and never a consistent big-game pitcher), Hamels (called him the best player in Phils organization last winter and crucial for Amaro to re-sign him at any price -which Amaro finally realized he had to do at end of July -- by doing a big salary dump), Lee (second best pitcher on team, crucial if Phils were to regain success) ... though I'm not omniscient, I'm batting about .900 on my predictons and asessments while Rube seems to bat about .160 on his talent evaluations...— warbiscuit
- Tool time don't re-write history, there was not a salary dump to sign Hamels. He was signed prior and Pence and Vic were traded after the Atlanta series lose. You're not omniscient but you are a moronic tool — DogBiscuitthedope
- warbiscuit actually said: 9/1: "when your manager is a moron, and your bullpen is a mess, and your closer's gonna blow it anyway, why should Rollins run out every meaningless ball? Rube's an imbecile for giving him $33 million (but a worse imbecile for giving Howard $125 mil., Papbum $50 mil -- and 3 dozen other reasons including destroying the future of the franchise to rent Oswalt and Pence), but stop scapegoating players like Rollins (or Lee or Hamels) instead of the true culprits like amaro, manuel and papbum"
— warbiscuit - Hey dopey how is Pierre doing tonight? More meaningless hits? Idiot — DogBiscuitthedope
- Another dopey hit...
2 words that categorically prove beyond any shadow of doubt that Ruben Amaro is an imbecile with absolutely zero ability to assess talent or run a baseball team: "Kyle Kendrick"... there is no other basbell person in the history of the game who would have given such a baffling $7.6 mil/2 yr contract to such a clearly useless player
— warbiscuit— DogBiscuitthedope - yep: I was remarkably accurate re Rollins, 7/22: "solid defensive shortstop with some pop in his bat and an occasional clutch-hit ... now that he has been signed I find it pointless to constantly rip and blame him" 8/5: "not to exonerate Rollins, but when the manager blows games night after night ... and when the g.m. decides to go into the season with such pitiful additions and re-signings .... why .... should you bust your b#$% for such a joke ... when the team was competitive and fighting for something Rolllins showed up and was often clutch..."— warbiscuit
- Your cut and paste job left out the "mailing it in" part. Dope — DogBiscuitthedope
- Hey idiot how is Pierre doing tonight? Dope — DogBiscuitthedope
- Correct: there is no other g.m. who would have given that contract to Kendrick -- and Amaro would have gladly included Kendrick in his clearance sales 7/31 if any other team in baseball would have taken Kendrick and assumed his salary that day-- sometimes it pays to be lucky --and Phils fans all hope Kendrick can keep it up, but don't give amaro credit for Kendrick becoming dramtically better unexpectedly after given a job by default becuase Amaro had given up on the season— warbiscuit
- Yeah it was all luck, never had a losing record in his career, all luck. Moronic tool. I guess you were in on the GM talks and know that Kendrick was being offered. See this is why everyone thinks you're a complete tool, you make moronic dopey statements to justify your moronic dopey statements — DogBiscuitthedope
- Pitching, pitching, pitching. Where are all those folks who wanted to trade away Kyle Kendrick right now?...
