A wild primer
The Phillies inconceivably stand three games back of a postseason berth for a multitude of reasons. The best explanation for how a team, once considered dead by many of its members, is luck and good timing.
A wild primer
Matt Gelb
The Phillies inconceivably stand three games back of a postseason berth for a multitude of reasons. The best explanation for how a team, once considered dead by many of its members, is luck and good timing.
Dissect it, and you'll see an old trend.
Their starting pitchers have a 3.01 ERA in their last 29 games. The Phillies have a 20-9 record during that stretch. It was the unit that brought so much success and a celebrated moniker in 2011.
It is what they must ride if this miracle of a comeback is to actually happen.
Tonight, in Houston, a 25-year-old junkballer named Tyler Cloyd takes the ball on short rest. He's the first Phillies pitcher asked to start on short rest this season. Even against a moribund squad like the Astros, there is still danger.
With days off, the Phillies can massage their rotation so that Cloyd makes only two more starts after Thursday, both against middling National League East teams.
9/13 @HOU: Cloyd
9/14 @HOU: Hamels
9/15 @HOU: Kendrick
9/16 @HOU: Halladay
9/17 @NYM: Lee
9/18 @NYM: Cloyd
9/19 @NYM: Hamels
9/20: OFF
9/21 vs. ATL: Kendrick
9/22 vs. ATL: Halladay
9/23 vs. ATL: Lee
9/24: OFF
9/25 vs. WAS: Hamels
9/26 vs. WAS: Kendrick
9/27 vs. WAS: Halladay
9/28 @MIA: Lee
9/29 @MIA: Cloyd
9/30 @MIA: Hamels
10/1 @WAS: Kendrick
10/2 @WAS: Halladay
10/3 @WAS: Lee
10/4: OFF
10/5 WILD CARD: Hamels
It's not a terrible scenario; every pitcher is going on regular rest (or extra rest in some instances). That has Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee pitching on the two final days of the season and Cole Hamels in line for a wild card one-game playoff start on regular rest.
A tiebreaker complicates things. If the Phillies tie another team for the second wild card berth, that tiebreaker is played Thursday. Home field is decided by season series records.
The Phillies had a winning record against three contenders:
vs. ARI: 4-2
vs. LAD: 2-5
vs. MIL: 5-2
vs. PIT: 3-4
vs. STL: 5-2
That means tiebreakers against Arizona, Milwaukee and St. Louis would be played at Citizens Bank Park on Thursday, Oct. 4. If the Phillies tie Los Angeles or Pittsburgh, the game is on the road.
Then, should the Phillies win a tiebreaker, the wild card one-game playoff is Friday, Oct. 5, probably in Atlanta. So the travel schedule, theoretically, could look like such:
Oct. 3 at Washington
Oct. 4 at Los Angeles
Oct. 5 at Atlanta
Godspeed.
Such a situation would necessitate starters on short rest to avoid using Cloyd. Hamels would pitch the tiebreaker on three days' rest with Kyle Kendrick starting the one-game playoff on three days' rest.
Of the six contenders (yes, we'll include Arizona), Arizona and St. Louis are tied for the softest remaining schedule by opponents' winning percentage.
STL: .464 -- 9 home (3 WAS, 3 CIN, 3 HOU), 10 road (4 LAD, 3 CHC, 3 HOU)
ARI: .464 -- 12 home (3 SFG, 3 SDP, 3 COL, 3 CHC), 7 road (3 SFG, 4 COL)
PIT: .467 -- 9 home (3 CIN, 3 ATL, 3 MIL), 11 road (4 NYM, 4 CHC, 3 HOU)
PHI: .493 -- 6 home (3 WAS, 3 ATL), 13 road (3 WAS, 3 NYM, 3 MIA, 4 HOU)
MIL: .504 -- 9 home (3 SDP, 3 NYM, 3 HOU), 10 road (4 WAS, 3 CIN, 3 PIT)
LAD: .532 -- 10 home (3 SFG, 4 STL, 3 COL), 9 road (3 WAS, 3 CIN, 3 SDP)
St. Louis heads to Los Angeles for a four-game series starting Thursday. The Phillies will be watching.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
Our guys never stopped playing, we had some surprising contributions (bullpen, Frandsen, Kratz) and the manager never lost his clubhouse. Great story. Even if we don't get in, you root for guys like this and look forward to 2013.— eman- warbiscuit, that's not what he said at all. Making up facts to support your inane conclusions does not make you correct. You must be a republican tea bagger.— thingfish
- There's no downside to this. The team did not give up. They did not miss Vic or Pence or Fat Joe. The Pigs have been allowed to step up and perform under pressure. I hate to say it, but Charlie deserves credit for not becoming Bobby V and imploding, he focused on winning games. Re: the possibility of making the playoffs, it's simple: a few teams are in better shape, but the Phils have a real chance--it's more up to them winning then others going into a tailspin now. It's exciting.— Barneyboy
- @thingfish -that's an EXACT QUOTE from other article -- and it's a fact that he left in Lindblom and Rosenberg, and others to lose games in crucial situation when he had clearly better relievers rested and available becuase, in his own words, he needed to test to see if they were up to the task— warbiscuit
- @Topwonk... Toughest schedule? The Phillies play 3 games against the Braves at home.... That's as tough as it gets. The Nationals do not scare me, especially with Strasburg out.— jwatki777
- Great article, Matt. Much better than EVERY ARTICLE UNTIL THIS ONE telling us how impossible this would be.
Great call. I look forward to a losing streak now that you are on board.
I had other thoughts of what to write to you and all the 'experts' who reply, a 2 word reply, but it would be deleted faster than all of you jumped on the band wagon.— smfree31 - Phillies run win streak to seven By Bob Brookover "...Manuel said it was only about a week ago that he realized he had this wild-card thing all wrong. He kept looking at Atlanta, the team leading the wild-card standings, and forgot that the second team in the order was the one the Phillies were really chasing. Even then, though, he wasn't too excited...." but ignorant leftists like stinkyfish just throw out insults and deny inconvenient things like facts -- and then blame it all on the prior administration -- both the president and g.m have been at the helm for 4 yrs and have nothing to show for it but failure
— warbiscuit - Whew, and here I was worried it was the stretch of games from June 4th to July 13th where they went 9-24 that might have ruined the season. I'm glad you set the record straight, though. Now we know that canning Charlie and RAJ will resolve all the issues this team has had this year. — thefonz37
- Hey dopey tool I hope Pierre doesn’t get another bunch of meaningless hits tonight, or Papalbon doesn’t get another meaningless save. That Aumont is worthless garbage I hope they don't use him again. Maybe they can re-sign Qualls since you loved that signing, or make a trade for Pena, he's now batting 191. LOL, idiot moronic tool — DogBiscuitthedope
- Not getting my hopes up. That series with the Braves looms large, and the Braves have owned this team this year.— beegal99
- The Reds and Nats and Braves will do whatever they can to keep Phils and Brewers out. I believe the Nats will treat our last 6 games like a playoff series.— Florida Frank
- big mistake to look at the schedule
the most important game of the season is tonight's game- if it takes all 4 starters and the entire bull pen they have to win it.
the next day that game is the the most important one of the season and so it goes until it is over and we look up and see the standings.— jbcanoe - I need to get my abacus out of storage for this...— Grazman
- What everyone needs to remember is that for two consecutive years (possibly 3), the Phils end up getting embarrassed by Houston sometime in early Sept. Looking past this is foolish.— Bruno Sammartino
- Cloyd was the minor league pitcher of the year. Houston is a team of minor leaguers. Should be right up his alley. W tonight - 8 in a row!— del_sj
