A buyer's guide to the Philadelphia Phillies: Cole Hamels
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A buyer's guide to the Philadelphia Phillies: Cole Hamels
David Murphy
We're still a month away from the thick of the flurry of deals that always occurs in advance of the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. Right now, teams are still focused on getting their draft picks signed, a process that will finish two weeks before the deadline, thanks to the new Collective Bargaining Agreement. Because the Phillies are 9.5 games out of first place and four games under .500 and trailing a slew of teams for the two Wild Card spots, the possibility exists that they end up dealing away one or more of their attractive pieces in order to stockpile for the future. The bottom would have to completely fall out for that to happen, but the bottom falling out isn't out of the question.
Over the next few weeks, we'll write plenty about the various issues that will affect the Phillies' deadline decision makings. But first, we need to get a firm handle on the return the Phillies should expect should they decide to deal.
When you really look at the situation, you'll see that the likely choice that Ruben Amaro Jr. will face is not whether to buy or sell, but whether to buy or stay put. The reason? The Phillies just don't have the kind of chips that would land them a package of players that offers a definitive facelift for the franchise.
When you look at the past performance of the trade market, you can organize each potential trade chip into a category.
Here is how I define them:
Level I - A first division top-of-the-rotation starter or first division middle-of-the-order hitter who is under club control beyond the current season, with their actual value a mixture of their performance on the field, their annual salary, and the number of years before they hit free agency. Think Cliff Lee or Roy Oswalt or Hunter Pence before they were traded to the Phillies.
Usual asking price: A Top 50 prospect plus two or three other players that includes either a Top 100 prospect, a near-major-league ready pitcher, or a young high-ceiling prospect.
Level II - A top-of-the-rotation starter who will be a free agent after the season. Think C.C. Sabathia before he was traded to the Brewers or Cliff Lee before he was traded to the Rangers. Or a young, controllable starter who is not a projected top-of-the-rotation guy.
Usual asking price: A Top 50 prospect, plus two or three lesser prospects that are fringe organizational Top 10 prospects.
Level III - A first division middle-of-the-order hitter who will be a free agent after the season. Think Carlos Beltran before he was traded to the Giants or Mark Teixeira before he was traded to the Angels. Also falling into this category are top-of-the-order hitters who are under control beyond the current season.
Usual asking price: A Top 50 prospect, a near-major-league-ready piece, or a combination of solid but not elite prospects.
Level IV - A first division back-of-the-bullpen, strikeout arm or first division middle-of-the-rotation starter who is under control beyond the current season or a first division top-of-the-order hitter who will be a free agent after the season.
Usual asking price: A good, perhaps fringe Top 100 prospect, or a combination that includes two solid prospects (usually among an organization's Top 10).
Level V - Level IV players who will be free agents after the season.
Usual asking price: A solid prospect outside or on the fring of the Org's Top 10 or combination of lesser prospect.
Level VI - Everybody else.
Usual asking price: Salary relief, spare parts
Here is how I rate the attractiveness of the potential trade chips in the Phillies' organization:
1. Cole Hamels (Level II): A bona fide No. 1 starter, the kind of pitcher who can turn an above average team into a playoff team (see C.C. Sabathia with the Brewers in 2008), a good team into a contending team (see Roy Oswalt with the Phillies in 2010), and a very good team into a title favorite (see Cliff Lee with the Phillies in 2009).
2. Hunter Pence (Level I/II): He is not a centerpiece player, but he reaches base, hits for power, and is under club control through next season, three things that figure to be in short supply this year.
3. Vance Worley (Level II/III): He is young, he isn't arbitration eligible until after next season, and he has had a damn fine start to his career. How high his stock is will depend on whether the bone chip and elbow inflammation he has suffered from becomes a problem again.
4. Shane Victorino (Level IV): Plenty of teams could use a center fielder who can lead off and hit with decent power, but he will be a free agent at the end of the season.
5. Trevor May (Top 50 prospect): Already a Top 75 prospect according to Baseball America, the right-hander has drawn positive reviews for his performance at Double-A Reading.
6. Domonic Brown (near-major-league-ready): Plenty of scouts still like what they see and think that Brown has suffered from a bout of Triple-A-itis.
7. Joe Blanton (Level V/VI): The market for his services will depend a lot on how he performs over this next month. After posting a 2.96 ERA in his first eight starts, he has allowed at least five runs in each of his last five. A free agent at the end of the season who will be owed somewhere in the neighborhood of $3.5 million at the deadline.
8. Jim Thome (Level VI): He has given talent evaluators reason to believe that he can still contribute in a DH role. But his back is an issue.
9. Ty Wigginton (Level VI): A low-budget American League team looking for a cheap bone to throw to its fan base could have some use for a right-handed DH/bench type who has some power.
Off the board: Carlos Ruiz isn't worth discussing because of the value the Phillies place on his game-calling. Jimmy Rollins has 10 and 5 rights, which means he can refuse any trade, and there is no reason to think he wouldn't do so, even if someone was willing to take on his contract. Placido Polanco isn't likely to garner much interest because of his health issues.
EDIT, 12:05 p.m. -- There was some question about Cliff Lee in the comments section. Lee can block trades to all but nine teams, which would likely block any possible move. That clause could be waived, but seeing as though Lee took less money to come to Philly, it's hard to imagine him OKing a deal to the Yankees or Red Sox or Dodgers, who are the only three contenders I can think of who would be able to accomodate his salary. Besides, the Phillies signed Lee for a reason less than two years ago, he has pitched at the level they expected him to pitch, so I don't see why they would all of a sudden turn around and try to deal him.
Hamels, clearly, is the player who could most impact a postseason race, which means he is the player who can likely garner the biggest return. Below is a look at how his season compares to the ones Lee and Sabathia were having at the time they were traded away just months before free agency, as well as a look at the players they garnered.
| Player | Age | Control | GS | RelApp | IP | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 |
| Cole Hamels | 28 | FA | 13 | 0 | 89 | 3.34 | 9.3 | 1.9 |
| Cliff Lee | 31 | FA | 13 | 0 | 103.2 | 2.34 | 7.7 | 0.5 |
| CC Sabathia | 27 | FA | 18 | 0 | 122.1 | 3.83 | 9.0 | 2.5 |
Lee return, along with reliever Mark Lowe:
| Prospect | Age | Level | BA100 | Org | Notes |
| 1B Justin Smoak | 23 | AAA | 13 | 2 | Blue-chip, was hitting .209/.316/.353, 8 HR in 275 MLB PAs |
| SP Blake Beavan | 21 | AA/AAA | NR | NR | Command/control near MLB ready command/control, Org8 2 yrs earlier |
| RP Josh Lueke | 25 | A/AA/AAA | NR | NR | Strikeout armed reliever |
| IF Matthew Lawson | 24 | AA | NR | NR | Was hitting .293/.372/.439, 9 HRs in minors |
Sabathia return:
| Prospect | Age | Level | BA100 | Org | Notes |
| 1B Matt LaPorta | 23 | AA | 23 | 1 | Blue chip power hitter |
| SP Zach Jackson | 25 | AAA | X | X | 7.85 ERA, 10 GS, 20 rel, 5.3 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 in minors that year |
| RP Rob Bryson | 20 | A | X | X | 4.25 ERA, 55 IP, 11.9 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 in minors that year |
The two deals were similar in that they both included a power-hitting first baseman ranked in the Top 25 of the Baseball America 100 that season. But none of the other five players in the two deals were ranked in the organization's Top 10 by Baseball America before the season. Both deals included a player with a pitching tool that could fill a role on a big league staff, supplemented by players without much projectability.
Neither Smoak nor LaPorta has come close to living up to his hype thus far. Beavan is the quintessential command/control pitcher that a second-division team can pitch at the back of its rotation in the hopes of getting some cheap production. He has made 12 starts this year with an ERA in the 5's. None of the other players have done much of anything.
Factor in the production the Phillies have gotten out of the prospects they landed in the head-scratching Cliff Lee deal, and you'll see why it might be better to err on the side of hoping for a second-half run than selling off.
At later dates, we'll continue to take a look at the other pieces the Phillies have available.
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Phillies would be dumb for trading Cole or Pence.— Bruno Sammartino- With the rapid decline of the starting lineup due to prolonged injury, fading skills and seeming indifferent play, all cards should be put on the table. Hamels has not pitched like a 125 million dollar pitcher for a while now, in fact he has kind of pitched to the level he always has pitched at: tease with a string of unbelievable performances that reminds you of vintage Lefty and then become ineffective with the same ease. Not worthy of the Mega Millions he hopes to achieve after this year. With last years quick fade to black followed by this years effort, everyone should be put on notice. The trading deadline and next winters GM meetings should be a must see.
And I think Blanton is more deserving of a lower mark then LevelV/VI. How about level X? The man has done nothing but steal money every 2 weeks since he was resigned.— DelawareRiverRat - The biggest barrier with Lee is his no-trade clause. According to a piece Murphy wrote earlier, he can block trades to 21 teams a year, with that list of teams probably given at the start of the year. Murphy's speculation, which is probably correct, is that list would probably block most of the likely trades -- they'd start with the top payroll teams. Those clauses can also be waived. Remember that both the Yankees and Rangers (I think) offered Lee more money. So they're probably on his list. This is probablt why he's not mentioned in Murph's piece. Halladay has the famous "most favored nation" trade clause. I think that means he also now has Lee's no-trade limits -- he waived a lot of his no-trade to come to Philly but most favored nation means he gets any better no-trade that a player after him gets. Lee came later ... This is my guess anyway. Mayhe David can confirm or deny this.— s
- Trade Cliff Lee for Pierre Aumont, Tayshaun Gillies and Adelberto Ramirez.— dasher
- WVH - you're a freaking moron.— PhillyIllini
- either victorino or pence will go. not both though...too risky.
then they'll try the dom brown experiment again for the rest of the year.— schmidty123 - Best thing they can do is tinker. Trade away one or two decent players for some half-decent prospects. Knee-jerk philly.com posters and talk radio blowhards should beware-- blowing up the team will lead to several years of terrible baseball. Fire sales are foolish.— everydayguy
- Interesting piece Cheese.
But methinks everyone too hasty on the trade Cole bandwagon which seems to have loaded up and is ready to depart.
The 'sellers' side of this equation may be more incremental and slower than anyone anticipates thereby 'buying' time, and seeing whether some additions, as well as subtractions, make a difference. I may be one of the lonely souls on pumping the bar on the handcar at trackside instead of the bandwagon hoppers that suggest a firesale.
In the end, by July XX, if things don't improve, certainly any end of contract players (ShaneVic, etc.) will be gone to get some value. Hamels is a different story - that is clearly tied to whether MontCo, RAJ and the Diamond Club upper crust feels he is still signable - and whether he has indicated so through his agent.
Rather than the dire 'arm problem' scenarios consistently marketed by some posters on this site, baseball is 90% mental. Anyone who doesn't think that ShaneVic and CHamels haven't been mentally distracted by the lack of negotiation, interest, or evident resigning of them by the club are seriously delusional. It HAS affected them, and their performance.
The shocking decline of this club in just a few months, trades, non-trades, non-drafts, and drafts notwithstanding, is clearly a malaise which begins with declning performances by key players, mediocre performances by players who are usually relied upon, and injuries. The perfect storm of all of this clearly is being weighed by the Diamond Club. We'll see what action they take.— 24sDad - The Phillies, and more specifically Ruben Amaro, would be total IDIOTS to trade Hamels. There, I said it.— DaveCicc
- I think Vic, Blanton, perhaps Cole might be the ones that they finally decide to see if interest comes to them.— Koons
- Cliff Lee is still the man.— gho_matt
- I guess it's safe to say that Cole Hamels is on another roster in a few weeks and that era will be over. All he had to do was pitch lights out for an entire season and win a championship. Oh wait.......— re6035
- I think it's time to turn the page. If the Phillies do decide to sell, I hope they don't go for half measures. That means they should be willing to trade Hamels. Anybody who could potentially bring some young talent to the Phils should be potential trade bait.— p-diddy
- Trading Pence is the best idea I've heard in a long time. I'd rate him a level II-III, though. Definitely not a level I. All anyone knew about him before he joined the Phillies were the highlights they saw of his better plays on ESPN. Now the world knows he takes as much as he gives. The man is an absolute butcher in RF.— Sam Crow
- When you are as bad as they are right NOW you must be in sellers mode....and unfortunately you must start with Hamels, Lee and Victorino. Not that I wouldn't want to keep them because I would but the opportunity to retool your farm system with some elite talent and possibly a young major leaguer WHILE ALSO freeing up significant money as well....
If you trade all 3 you probably free up 50 million in salary which you can use to sign a starting pitcher and a strong bat preferably a 3B type guy and with the return of Howard you will be heading in the right direction.....JMO— bbrady25
