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Murphy: How the Phillies' lineup is improved

CLEARWATER, Fla. – A couple of weeks ago, I made an off-the-cuff statement that attracted a decent amount of reader email. After an offseason in which the Phillies managed to incrementally upgrade at least two spots in their lineup, they would at least have a chance at finishing in the middle of the National League pack in runs scored at the end of the season.

CLEARWATER, Fla. – A couple of weeks ago, I made an off-the-cuff statement that attracted a decent amount of reader email. After an offseason in which the Phillies managed to incrementally upgrade at least two spots in their lineup, they would at least have a chance at finishing in the middle of the National League pack in runs scored at the end of the season.

It was a rather lazy assertion that I did not back up with any sort of evidence, and many readers did not agree with the quantum leap in reasoning I'd made: Michael Saunders + Howie Kendrick + Chris Coghlan = a potential improvement of 0.67 runs per game, which was the distance between the last-in-the-NL Phillies offense and the league average in 2016. To be clear, I meant simply that such an improvement was now within the realm of possibility, where it wasn't a year ago.

But the challenges were valid. So let's take a closer look at the lineup:

No. 1

2016: Odubel Herrera, who had one big-league season under his belt, a 2015 rookie campaign in which he hit .297 with a .344 OBP and .418 slugging percentage.

2017: Herrera, who now has two big-league seasons under his belt, the most recent of which featured reassuring improvements in his strikeout rate (24.0 percent to 20.4 percent) and his walk rate (5.2 percent to 9.6 percent), and a bump in home-run power.

When you look at his rate stats, you understand why the Phillies felt comfortable investing five years and a couple of team options and $30.5 million guaranteed in the 25-year-old centerfielder.

Verdict: Slight improvement in expected value, given the larger sample size of playing time we have to evaluate him on. A bad year is always possible, but the numbers suggest that we have more reason to expect Herrera to continue being the hitter we've seen than we did at this time last year.

No. 2

2016: Cesar Hernandez entered 2016 with 708 career plate appearances across three seasons in which he'd posted a .269/.331/.333 batting line. Though there were some improvements in 2015 that suggested he could improve on that performance, we had no way to predict that he'd end up with a .294/.371/.393 line.

2017: Hernandez's jump in OBP was helped by a walk rate that has risen from 7.0 percent in his first two seasons to 8.9 percent in 2015 and 10.6 percent in 2016. He had 36 infield hits, including 15 bunt singles, the latter of which more than doubled his output from a year before. Hernandez also saw more pitches.

Verdict: A significant improvement in expectations over last year at this time, with a reasonable expectation of some regression in batting average. If his average drops back to where it was over his first three years (.269), the result would be 14 fewer hits, but an unchanged walk rate would keep his OBP at .346.

No. 3

2016: Maikel Franco was coming off a rookie season in which he hit .280/.343/.497 with 14 home runs in 335 plate appearances.

2017: Franco's strikeout rate ticked up, and his walk rate ticked down, and his extra-base-hit rate fell from 11.0 percent to 7.8 percent. The result, a disappointing .255/.306/.427 line, with 25 home runs.

Verdict: Our expectations are lower than they were heading into the 2016 season, but even a modest move back toward the player Franco was in 2015 would represent a significant improvement over his end-of-season numbers. If Franco finished 2017 with his two-year averages, that would mean a .770 OPS, compared with the .733 he posted last season.

No. 4

2016: The Phillies had Ryan Howard coming off a year in which he had an OPS of .743 in the cleanup spot, with Tommy Joseph nowhere in view. They ended up getting a .244/.298/.442 line from the spot.

2017: Let's pencil in Saunders here. In his last five seasons, Saunders has hit .249/.325/.435. In his last three, he's hit .257/.337/.457. Last year, he hit .253/.338/.478 with 24 home runs.

Verdict: Expectations significantly improved.

No. 5

2016: In 2015, Cameron Rupp spent the most time on the roster in the five-hole.

2017: This should be one of the big swing spots in the order. Let's put Joseph there. If he repeats his surprise performance of a .257/.308/.505 line and 21 home runs in 347 plate appearances, it would make for a dramatic improvement. Even if he regresses some, he could still represent a net gain.

Verdict: I'd argue we have more reason for optimism about the five-hole this year, considering that Rupp is now further down in our projected order.

No. 6

2016: This was no man's land, both in spring training and throughout the season. Cody Asche? Tyler Goeddel? Peter Bourjos? Carlos Ruiz? The Phillies ended up getting a .656 OPS out of the six-hole.

2017: Kendrick posted a .691 OPS last year, his worst season in an 11-year career. That was still 35 points better than the production the Phillies got out of the six-hole in 2016. Imagine if Kendrick is more the player he was the previous four seasons, when he posted a .746 OPS. The addition of lefty Coghlan further improves the outlook, even if marginally.

Verdict: Significant improvement.

No. 7

2016: Galvis and Goeddel spent the most time here. Combined, seven-hole hitters posted a .708 OPS.

2017: Rupp is coming off a season in which he hit .252/.303/.447. In 796 career PAs, he has a .240/.298/.403 line. The potential call-ups of Andrew Knapp and Jorge Alfaro factor in.

Verdict: You can argue a lot of different ways. Ruiz offered some reason for hope at this time last year. All told, let's call it even.

No. 8

2016: Freddy Galvis

2017: Galvis

Verdict: Galvis

In sum

FanGraphs projects the Phillies to average 4.13 runs per game, which is notable because it puts them ahead of two other NL teams, the Padres (3.92 runs) and the Braves (4.11 runs). That would not, by definition, be a middle-of-the-pack offense, but bounce-back seasons by Kendrick and Franco and a full season of Joseph could be enough. In my mind, that counts as a plausible scenario.

dmurphy@phillynews.com

@ByDavidMurphy