Skip to content
Phillies
Link copied to clipboard

What's behind MLB's home run surge?

One of the three solo homers that Jerad Eickhoff allowed last Wednesday in a win over Chicago landed in the first row of the Citizens Bank Park stands. Another, which traveled 350 feet, plopped into the flower bed that lines the left-field wall.

One of the three solo homers that Jerad Eickhoff allowed last Wednesday in a win over Chicago landed in the first row of the Citizens Bank Park stands. Another, which traveled 350 feet, plopped into the flower bed that lines the left-field wall.

That one bothered Eickhoff, who had not thrown a great pitch but still was surprised to see it go over the wall. He stood behind the mound, arms at his hips, as White Sox catcher Alex Avila rounded the bases. Eickhoff has permitted 29 homers this season, which is tied for the league lead, although 22 are solo shots.

He is not the only one perplexed by the prevalence of deep flies. Major-league hitters are nearing the all-time record for home runs hit in a season - 5,693 - established in the steroid-fueled time of 2000. The reason for the power uptick then was clear. But how can an increase of more than 1,000 home runs from 2014 to 2016 be explained? Entering Friday's games, a total of 5,337 homers were hit, already the sixth-highest total ever with more than a week of games to play.

Those in the game have their theories. They range from the humorous - "Global warming?" Larry Bowa joked - to the conspiratorial, that somehow Major League Baseball has been using juiced balls. (Commissioner Rob Manfred denied such a notion in July.) Players and coaches are skeptical that performance-enhancing drugs are the cause, citing baseball's rigorous testing program. But that suspicion will always hover.

Entering the weekend, teams hit 1.17 homers per game this season, well up from the 0.86 and 1.01 rates in 2014 and 2015, respectively. The home-run rate in 2016 is almost the same as in 2000, but batting averages, on-base percentages and slugging percentages this season are not near the 2000 levels.

Eickhoff, in his second big-league season, reached a conclusion after studying hitters' approaches.

"Hitters, coaches, and baseball organizations in general are so infatuated with homers that they don't care about strikeouts," Eickhoff said. "If guys are swinging for the fences and they miss and strike out two out of three times, so be it. But that third time, there's a potential to be a homer. It's just a very attractive thing right now. It runs in trends. Maybe in 20 years we'll see it kind of fade back to hitting to contact. It's one of those cyclical trends."

That theory has validity. Baseball is sure to break a record for most strikeouts this season. And 1,630 home runs have been hit on two-strike counts in 2016, close to the all-time record of 1,668 in 2004.

Bowa, the 70-year-old Phillies bench coach, has bemoaned all season some of his hitters' inability to adjust when down in the count. It is even worse across the game, he said.

"There is no two-strike approach," Bowa said. "They're swinging like the count is 2-0 or 3-1. They don't care about strikeouts. There are organizations - I'm not saying ours - who say an out's an out. So if they feel comfortable swinging 0-2 as hard as they can, they're going to run into some home runs. That's why strikeouts are up too. They're off the charts. To me, there's a correlation there."

Others point to the increased average fastball velocity across the game. More and more pitchers throw harder and harder.

"So hitters are used to it now," outfielder Cody Asche said.

"They're ready for it now," catcher Cameron Rupp said. "You only had one or two of those guys coming out of the bullpen throwing 100 [mph]. Now, everybody does it. Everybody is caught up."

That could be, although the numbers do not support it. Last season, according to MLB.com's Statcast, 497 home runs were hit on pitches 95-mph or faster. This season? It's 500. So the dramatic increase is not found there.

But Asche made an interesting point: Teams have increasingly placed such a high value on extra-base hits that it has affected how some hitters tailor their approach. A few years ago, when power was down, teams chased it. Now? There could be a market correction to take advantage of the way pitching has changed.

Veteran reliever Frank Herrmann said he could offer a few guesses, but he could not admit to fully supporting any of them. That left him with one conclusion.

"Maybe it's just one of those things," Herrmann said. "Maybe it's just a statistical anomaly."

Updates on three

1. Tommy Joseph: He keeps making adjustments, and that is something you love to see from a young hitter. Still, the Phillies could look to acquire a platoon partner for 2017 to limit Joseph's exposure to righthanders. The platoon with Ryan Howard is a solid blueprint, albeit an expensive one.

2. Cody Asche: He has an option remaining, so the Phillies could tender him a contract through arbitration and pay him a raise to either be a bench player or serve as triple-A depth. Asche is well-liked in the clubhouse. But with 40-man spots at a premium this winter, the Phillies will have to trim somewhere.

3. Dusty Wathan: In 2017, he'll have one of the most important jobs in the organization as triple-A Lehigh Valley manager. Most of the organization's best position-player prospects will be there. Players who went through Reading during Wathan's five years there always raved about his command of a clubhouse.

mgelb@philly.com

@mattgelb