Moniak's selection means Phillies still practicing patience

The Chicago Cubs departed Citizens Bank Park late Wednesday afternoon with the best record in baseball, another bit of evidence that team president Theo Epstein's plan to reinvigorate a sad-sack franchise is working.

When Epstein left Boston and arrived in Chicago in October 2011, the Cubs had failed to make the playoffs for three straight seasons and were nine years removed from winning a playoff game. Of course, we all know about that little World Series drought on Chicago's North Side, too.

It remains to be seen if Epstein can work the same magic with the Cubs that he performed as a young general manager with the Boston Red Sox, but at the very least he is on the right track. We bring this up now because the local baseball team is in the midst of trying to get to where the Cubs already are.

"There is a pretty big gap," Phillies manager Pete Mackanin said after his team lost five of six games to the Cubs this season. "I'm glad we don't have to see them again. So we know where we're at and we know where we want to be. We would like to be like the Cubs. Hopefully that is going to happen in the near future."

Drafting well tops the list of ways to climb back up the standings and Thursday the Phillies had the first overall pick. They used it on Mickey Moniak, an 18-year-old outfielder from La Costa Canyon High School in Southern California. There is no way to know what Epstein and the Cubs would have done with the same pick, but the best guess based on their recent history is something different.

Examine the most successful first picks of Epstein's time in Boston and Chicago and in every case they have been college position players who have made quick ascents to the big leagues. In an industry that puts a premium on pitching, Epstein's teams have often used their first picks on college hitters and followed up by selecting a flurry of pitchers.

It started in 2003, Epstein's first draft in Boston, when the Red Sox took outfielder David Murphy from Baylor with the 12th overall pick and followed that with five pitchers in the team's next seven selections. A year later, they took Dustin Pedroia out of Arizona State with their first pick, then used five of their next six selections on pitchers. In 2005, they made Jacoby Ellsbury the 23rd overall selection and used four of their next six selections on pitchers.

That's an obvious trend and given how much Pedroia and Ellsbury contributed to a couple of World Series titles, it was a very good one.

The Cubs have followed a similar formula since Epstein's arrival. With the exception of 2012, the first draft after Epstein's arrival, the Cubs have used their first-round pick on college position players. Kris Bryant, the second overall pick in 2013, was the National League rookie of the year last season and, at 24, has emerged as one of baseball's best power hitters. Six of their next seven picks after Bryant were pitchers.

Catcher Kyle Schwarber, the fourth overall pick in 2014, hit 16 home runs in just 232 at-bats as a rookie last season, but suffered a season-ending injury in the season's second game this year. Ten of the Cubs' 11 picks after Schwarber were pitchers.

Johnny Almaraz's two first-round picks since becoming the Phillies' scouting director have been high school outfielders. A year ago, he used the 10th overall pick on Cornelius Randolph, who had a solid debut in the Gulf Coast League last season, but has been limited to 12 games by a shoulder injury this season. There's nothing worse than missed time for a developing player picked out of high school.

All we know for sure about Randolph and Moniak is that a lot of patience will be required before we know what impact they'll have in the big leagues. Had the Phillies used the first pick on University of Tennessee third baseman Nick Senzel, Louisville outfielder Corey Ray or Mercer University outfielder Kyle Lewis, we'd have a much quicker answer about the impact of this draft. You get the feeling that is what Epstein and the Cubs would have done.

The Phillies, with the new regime of president Andy MacPhail and general manager Matt Klentak, opted for patience even though the local playoff drought is at four years and counting.

Moniak said Bryce Harper and Mike Trout were among the major-leaguers he most admires, but those two are rare cases that got to the big leagues in a hurry after being drafted as teenagers.

Since 1989, the Phillies have drafted 12 high school position players in the first round. Mike Lieberthal was the only one to become an all-star for them. The list is littered with some infamous names, although shortstop J.P. Crawford figures to help improve a tainted history.

How will Cornelius Randolph and Mickey Moniak figure in?

Get back to us in 2020. Maybe the Chicago Cubs will have won a World Series by then. And maybe the Phillies will have returned to the postseason, too. The former seems more likely than the latter right now.

bbrookover@phillynews.com

@brookob