Aaron Nola's next start might be his last

IN NEW YORK this month, the Mets are attempting to lock down their first division title in nine years while also trying to avoid overextending their best pitcher, Matt Harvey, who had Tommy John surgery two years ago and has an agent very cognizant of his workload.

In Washington three years ago, the Nationals faced a similar situation with Stephen Strasburg. They decided to shut him down altogether and it has backfired: the Nats were bounced out of the playoffs in the first round that season, haven't won a postseason series since, and face the very real possibility of sitting out October this year, the second-to-last year that Strasburg is under team control.

The Phillies' own situation with their best young pitcher pales in comparison. Aaron Nola is not coming off Tommy John surgery like Harvey and Strasburg were in their respective situations.

But, as with their division rivals in New York and Washington, and not unlike many teams throughout baseball with young, still-developing starting pitchers, the Phillies are up against it in deciding what to do with Nola in the final two weeks that remain in the 2015 season.

The 22-year-old Nola, the team's top pick in the 2014 draft, is scheduled to start Sunday at Turner Field in Atlanta. But as manager Pete Mackanin admitted while looking at a spreadsheet sitting on his desk inside the manager's office at Citizens Bank Park this week, there's literally a question mark in place of Nola's name when his turn is due up again in the Phillies' rotation.

"He'll definitely have one more start and then we'll play it by ear," Mackanin said. "We want to take care of him and not overextend him. So we'll just look at it after his next start and see where he's at."

It was just over 16 months ago that Nola was pitching at LSU, working in a schedule that had him pitching once a week, as the team's "Friday night starter," a slot often designated for a collegiate team's top pitcher. Combining his inning totals at LSU and then at Class A Clearwater and Double A Reading last summer, Nola racked up a total of 171 2/3 innings in 2014.

He enters Sunday with 175 innings this year after two moths with the Phillies and his previous work at Reading and Triple A Lehigh Valley. The front office has stated throughout the year that it would like to keep Nola within the 170-190 range.

So, will Sunday's start be his last of the season? Has he already made his last start at Citizens Bank Park in his rookie season? How does one figure out an exact number for the proper amount of innings for a first-year major league starting pitcher?

"I've been trying to get my hands around that for a couple of days, just to figure out what we can do and what makes sense," interim general manager Scott Proefrock said the other day, before the rotation schedule was announced for the upcoming weekend.

Either the Phillies have a plan and aren't making it public, or they're still in the process of coming to a decision that appeases all parties.

"I think what we're going to do right now - I read an article the other day that talked about Tommy John, and this obviously doesn't apply to Aaron, but they were saying Tommy John was told by Dr. [Frank] Jobe, 'Go by how it feels, by how your arm feels,' " Proefrock said of the lefthander whose career was revived in 1974 by the revolutionary elbow ligament replacement surgery that bears his name. "At this point, there's no indication that there's any reason or necessity to limit them other than what we've set. And I think we're just going to play it by how they feel going forward. We'll see."

Following his most recent start, an 8-7 loss to Washington on Monday, Nola was asked how he felt in the first mid-September of his pitching career. He said he was not fatigued.

"My body feels good, my arm feels really good," Nola said. "I feel like the recovery has been going good for me. I've been feeling good day by day."

And if the Phillies tell him Sunday night or Monday that he's finished for the season, how would he feel then?

"I understand [it]," Nola said. "But I can still pitch. I can still pitch - I feel healthy and I feel good."

It's worth noting that the Phillies have four rookie starters in their current rotation.

Adam Morgan, a 2011 draft pick, pitched a career-high 158 2/3 innings in 2012. But he is less than two years removed from shoulder surgery and is at 146 2/3 innings this year, so the Phillies are also monitoring his workload.

Jerad Eickhoff, also a 2011 draft pick (by Texas), pitched 154 1/3 innings in 2014. He's at 163 2/3 this season. Fellow former Rangers prospect and current Phils righthander Alec Asher, a 2012 draft pick, pitched 154 innings last year; he's at 153 this year.

With 15 games left, the Phillies are trying to figure out the best course of action to keep their young starters like Nola healthy. They introduced a six-man rotation last week in an effort to reduce the workload.

While they probably don't plan to add any starting pitchers, it's still not out of the question that they would shut down Nola within the next week.

"I haven't spoken to [any of] them about it," Mackanin said. "The pitching coach has more of a dialogue with them than I do. But I haven't heard any complaints from anybody. If they realize we're doing it in their best interest, then I think it'll make more sense to them and I think they understand it, especially their first go around in the big leagues."

Blog: ph.ly/HighCheese