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Inside the Phillies: Trade meter: Hamels is most likely Phillie to be dealt

CHICAGO - The first domino in this month's trade market fell Thursday when the Houston Astros acquired starting pitcher Scott Kazmir from the Oakland Athletics for pitching prospect Daniel Mengden and catching prospect Jacob Nottingham.

Phillies' starting pitching Cole Hamels shakes hands with teammates.  (Yong Kim/Staff Photographer)
Phillies' starting pitching Cole Hamels shakes hands with teammates. (Yong Kim/Staff Photographer)Read more

CHICAGO - The first domino in this month's trade market fell Thursday when the Houston Astros acquired starting pitcher Scott Kazmir from the Oakland Athletics for pitching prospect Daniel Mengden and catching prospect Jacob Nottingham.

The deal was the much-awaited first in what should be a flurry of moves before 4 p.m. next Friday. How many of the Phillies' tradable pieces will be moved - and for what return? - is the burning question among the Philadelphia region's baseball fans with one week to go until the deadline.

Much can and will change in the next seven days. When it comes to trade talks, the tide can be altered with just one phone call, of course. But with a week to go before the biggest day of the year for the crowded Phillies' front office, the team's four most likely non-waiver trade candidates face varying degrees of chances that they will be dealt.

Cole Hamels

The Hamels sweepstakes could very well go down to the wire next Friday afternoon, but the looming free-agent starting pitching class and the risk of injury in another year of waiting still make it likely that the Phillies' ace is dealt by the deadline.

The Los Angeles Dodgers, who actually might need to acquire two starting pitchers, still make the most sense as a landing spot, but the Texas Rangers and Boston Red Sox also could be fits. (The Red Sox, despite their last-place standing, could still make a move with next season in mind.)

The Astros were considered a potential suitor but opted for a rental in Kazmir, a free agent at season's end. That trade still could affect the Phillies in that (a) it ensures one fewer option for the Dodgers and (b) it could put pressure on the Rangers, chasing the Astros in the American League West and wild-card standings, to bolster their rotation.

Because Hamels is under contract for the next three seasons, with an option for a fourth, his situation is different than that of a rental like Kazmir, the Cincinnati Reds' Johnny Cueto or the Chicago White Sox' Jeff Samardzija. The 31-year-old lefthander's contract has long been one reason the money- and prospect-flush Dodgers, who could lose Zack Greinke in free agency this winter, appear to be the ideal fit.

Trade meter (chance from 1 to 10, in our estimation, that this player is traded, with 10 being most likely): 7.5

Jonathan Papelbon

If the Papelbon market has indeed dried up, as an ESPN.com report indicated on Wednesday, it's not for lack of performance.

Papelbon, who is 17 saves away from the top 10 in baseball history, has remained sharp and consistent in a tough situation this season. If he is not dealt before July 31, the reason will be because of his salary, most prominently the $13 million option for next season he will be owed, presuming he finishes 15 more games this year.

Given his contract, Papelbon might prove easier to trade in the offseason, when the then-35-year-old has only one year remaining. It's plausible that the Phillies might garner better value for him in the winter, too, especially because he has offered no indication that his effectiveness will decrease between now and October.

It will be even more difficult for the Phillies to trade Papelbon over the next seven days if the sure-to-sell Cincinnati Reds make Aroldis Chapman available. Ditto for the underachieving San Diego Padres with Craig Kimbrel.

Trade meter: 4

Ben Revere

Revere is a player who surely could help a contending team. Despite his shortcomings in the field and occasional snafus on the base paths, he is again hitting .300 for a team that has scored the third-lowest run total in the majors.

Entering Thursday's slate of games, only 22 qualified hitters in baseball - 11 in the National League - boasted a clip .300 or better. Revere has stolen 22 bases in 27 attempts. The team-best 1.8 wins above replacement he is worth, according to FanGraphs, was 29th among major-league outfielders going into Thursday.

One would think that production would be more useful on many teams rather than on baseball's worst. The Los Angeles Angels, Pittsburgh Pirates and Seattle Mariners have been linked to Revere in the past, but with several other corner outfielders on the market, it's still unclear where the speedy 27-year-old will be taking the field come August.

Trade meter: 7

Jeff Francoeur

The fact that Jeff Francoeur, who spent most of last season with the San Diego Padres' triple-A affiliate, where he resorted to pitching, has even put himself in position to be traded is a testament to his season.

The journeyman rightfielder will enter Friday's series opener against the Chicago Cubs - with the lefthanded Jon Lester on the mound, the righthanded-hitting Francoeur will surely be in the lineup - sporting a .262 average and a .746 on-base plus slugging percentage.

As recently as last weekend, when Francoeur played hero with a go-ahead, pinch-hit home run on Friday and a walk-off dinger on Sunday, the Pirates were said to have interest in the 31-year-old. They might still be in play - "Frenchy" would provide them a good bench bat and a complement to their lefthanded hitting rightfielder, Gregory Polanco - but they also have other needs after shortstop Jordy Mercer sprained a knee ligament.

Ultimately, considering the low-level prospect return the Phillies likely would garner for Francoeur, the team is probably best off keeping him around through this season, and perhaps even bringing him back for next year. He's valuable as a veteran clubhouse leader, especially among a roster transitioning from its aging core to new, younger players.

Trade meter: 2

@jakemkaplan