Phillies hope for big things out of top pick in draft

WITHIN THE SPAN of the first few weeks of action this spring in Clearwater, Fla., two unrelated elements played out on the diamonds at the Carpenter Complex.

Despite Maikel Franco's presence in big-league camp, manager Ryne Sandberg said that 24-year-old Cody Asche would see "95 percent" of his work at third base to get him best prepared to be the team's Opening Day third baseman. Only four years earlier, the Phillies used their fourth-round selection in the amateur draft on the University of Nebraska infielder; they needed less than $170,000 to sign him.

Across the way, as minor league camp began, the team's top pick from the same draft didn't show up for work. Larry Greene, the 39th overall pick in 2011, informed the Phillies his baseball playing days were over.

The team signed Greene, a raw Georgia high school slugger, to a $1 million signing bonus. He hit .183 with two home runs in 60 games at Low A Lakewood last season.

There are likely similar stories throughout the industry, as baseball's draft, compared with its NFL and NBA counterparts, has a higher rate of unpredictability. And the 2011 draft wasn't a complete disaster for the Phillies, with Asche in the big leagues, along with Ken Giles (seventh round). Roman Quinn (second round) and Adam Morgan (third round) are on a major league track, too.

But the misfire at the top still stings, surely, and it's a lesson learned that can be filed away as the Phillies take an important step in their current rebuild when the 2015 amateur draft begins Monday night.

The Phillies have the 10th overall pick in the draft, which extends through Wednesday. In each of the last two drafts, the Phillies have netted players who have quickly established themselves as a couple of the big-leagues top prospects: righthander Aaron Nola (seventh overall in 2014) and shortstop J.P. Crawford (16th overall, 2013).

"It's one piece of the pie, but it's a pretty big piece - that's where you can get new talent," general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said of the draft in general. "There's always challenges - every draft poses challenges. But being able to pick a little bit higher than we have in the past, I think that helps us. It gives us the opportunity to what you'd hope to [pick from] a bigger pool of talent.

"It's still a crapshoot. When you get right down to it, with the money that's spent on the draft, and the return you get from the draft . . . it's not the greatest investment. But it is our biggest investment as an industry. Hopefully, we can make some hay."

The good news for the Phillies: This isn't the year to regret not having one of the top picks. There isn't an obvious top pick. There aren't two or three can't-miss kids at the top.

For example, in Baseball America's draft preview issue, Georgia prep catcher Tyler Stephenson is the No. 1 overall pick in its mock draft. But if you go to mlb.com's mlbpipeline.com, Stephenson is ranked as the 18th-best prospect in the draft class.

"What we're lacking is any sort of [Bryce] Harper, [Stephen] Strasburg, [Kris] Bryant, [Carlos] Correa type at the top," said Eric Longenhagen, who covers the draft for ESPN.com. "And not only that, but anybody on the tier beneath that, like Anthony Rendon or Byron Buxton, when he was a prospect . . . So you're looking at guys that are a tier below that at the top of the draft. And there are no advanced pitching in the draft . . . There is no David Price."

Because of the muddle at the top, one could argue that the Phillies might have just as good a chance landing an impact player at pick No. 10 as a team would within the top five picks this year.

"I think that the difference in the player that the Phillies will get at 10 with, say, the Rockies will get at 3 is fairly insignificant," said Jonathan Mayo, who covers the draft and minor leagues for mlb.com. "That doesn't mean that the Diamondbacks, Astros and Rockies, who pick 1 through 3, aren't going to get a potentially really good player. But I don't know that there's that much drop-off."

Stephenson, a righthanded-hitting catcher with pop, whom Amaro watched while the Phillies were in Atlanta this month, could certainly make sense with the 10th pick.

Ditto college infielders Ian Happ (Cincinnati) and Kevin Newman (Arizona) and outfielder Andrew Benintendi (Arkansas). Happ, a switch-hitting second baseman, may be better suited for an outfield corner position, though.

The Phillies have had a gaping hole of outfield prospects for a while, so high schoolers Kyle Tucker (expected to be selected before the Phillies pick), Trenton Clark and Garrett Whitley probably can't be ruled out, either.

The Phillies would appear to have more of a need for offense than pitching, having acquired a decent crop of pitchers through last year's draft and this winter's trades but the adage that you can never have enough pitching still applies.

Vanderbilt righthander Walker Buehler - whom Mayo described as "Aaron Nola-ish" in being a polished pitcher who could get to the big leagues fairly quickly - has been linked to the Phillies. (He also has a great Twitter handle: @buehlersdayoff.) Other pitchers likely under consideration: Missouri State's Jon Harris, Louisville's Kyle Funkhouser and Stroudsburg High's Mike Nikorak - all righthanders.

Amaro said the Phillies have had an "all-encompassing group" of people in the organization who have seen a large group of players.

"We're getting a lot of opinions and a lot of passion behind the discussion," Amaro said, "which is great."

A first-round dark horse: 6-1, 225-pound Canadian high school slugger Josh Naylor, who impressed in games with the Canadian junior national team in play vs. Dominican Summer League teams last month. Assistant GM Benny Looper and international scouting director Sal Agostinelli have both seen Naylor, and, according to a source, both were impressed, too.

Naylor is a first baseman with a Prince Fielder-ish build, so conditioning could be an issue. Then again, power is one of the most difficult tools to find on the amateur baseball market.

"There is power in the college ranks, very few at the high-school level," said first-year scouting director Johnny Almaraz, previously of the Atlanta Braves, who is running his first draft for the Phillies. "The thing with me and power is that I like the ability to hit the baseball over somebody that has power. I think you have to be a good hitter before you can ever achieve your power. Power comes through maturity and strength later on."

With a dearth of position players in the upper levels of the minor leagues, the Phillies certainly could seek more polished hitters next week. Think Nola, only from the offensive side.

That's where players such as Happ and Newman would seem like fits for the Phillies, who would love to inject new blood on to their big-league roster within the next year or two. But, according to Almaraz, that type of player doesn't necessarily have to come from the college crop.

"I've seen really talented high school players that are 19, 20 and 21. When you have ability, you are going to be on the fast track," Almaraz said. "If you have talent and you play the game the right way, you are going to be here before everyone else is."

Crawford, drafted two years ago and already at Double A, fits that description. But so does Asche, who reached the big leagues two years, one month after being drafted.

"No one would have probably expected me to be where I was in 2013 - or where I'm at now," said Asche, who is now the Phillies' everyday leftfielder. "I think, for sure, if you find the right guys that have the right kind of mindset, and the right abilities and the right approach, I think you can see guys come up fast . . . I think it's more on the player showing they're eager, showing who they are, their character, that they don't waver throughout a season and can handle things.

"I think that's what helped me out the most. I had a lot of people pushing me throughout the minor leagues, a lot of good coaching every single day. And I just stuck with it. And I moved quickly. I think if you find the right people - but it's so hard to get a feeling for what a kid is really like."

And therein lies the greatest puzzle of the process, identifying the all-important, underrated sixth tool that separates prospects from projects: a player's mental makeup.

When coaches, scouts, general managers and agents are looking at kids who are barely old enough to vote, how do they know whether they're investing money in a player who will be able to respond to failure for the first time in their baseball lives?

How do they know whether they're getting someone willing to work, 12 months a year? How do they know they won't get someone who could quit before their pro career is even four years old?

"We try to do as much due diligence on a guy - his family, and what motivates him," Amaro said.

"Our area scouts and supervisors are spending a lot of time getting to know all the players we have interest in," Almaraz said. "Character is extremely important to achieve the abilities that you have and fulfill those abilities at the major league level. It's always been known that people that are wired correctly, that have really good mental makeup, [that] within the mental makeup comes the discipline, the hard work, the work ethic, and all the intangibles that go with it. If you have good character, then we feel that those intangibles lie within that."

"Our area scouts are the primary foundation for us making those decisions. This year, I've really stressed they have to go in the house to know what the parents are doing. For me, the apple doesn't fall far from the tree. If parents are wired pretty good, if they're pretty good mentally made-up people, then chances are their sons who play baseball are probably going to be, too."

Like a lot of baseball people, Asche has always enjoyed watching the draft unfold. He likes looking back at previous drafts to see later-round picks who thrived and the early picks who didn't, for whatever reason.

He'll be more interested in this year's draft, though, when he finds out a little more about the people who hope to wear the same Phillies uniform.

"I'll start rooting for the guys once you meet them, once they're in our system and you get a feel for who they are," Asche said. "You ask the people you know, 'Does he have what it takes, does he like to work,' stuff like that, once they're in. Because that's a game changer."

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