Maybe Phillies should follow Pirates' roadmap for success

IT'S ALWAYS NICE when somebody does your work for you, so a big shout-out to Travis Sawchik. At varying points over the last year, we've used a Phillies opponent as a prism through which to view their ongoing efforts to return the organization to a state of perennial competitiveness.

Today, we turn our attention to the Pirates, for a variety of reasons. First, they are in town, which automatically makes them the most interesting baseball team in the city. Second, they are one of the ascendant franchises that has stepped up to fill the void left by the Phillies' self-implosion. Third, Sawchik was kind enough to help us in our endeavor by writing a forthcoming book that breaks down the Pirates' organization in great detail, a book titled "Big Data Baseball." Fourth, I have a soft spot in my heart for Travis. You could say I discovered him, if, by "discovered," you mean I turned around from my desk at the Sun News in Myrtle Beach, S.C., 10 years ago and discovered him sitting behind me, waiting to interview for an opening covering high school sports. He got the job. Now he is writing books, and I am writing columns about his books.

So, where were we? Right, the Pirates and the Phillies.

You can probably infer from the book's title that the Pirates are an organization that relies heavily on proprietary statistical analysis, and you probably do not need to infer that I am of the opinion that the Phillies are perilously deficient in that department (because you are in the midst of writing me a hate email wondering why I don't find something new to write about). Yet the Pirates are an interesting case study, because they exemplify one of life's greatest truths: People think you are a genius only after you succeed.

Less than three years ago, the Pirates were the laughingstock of the National League, and Neal Huntington was facing an uncertain future as general manager, a situation that provides the dramatic tension for Sawchik's look at the team's 2013 playoff run. In 2012, the Pirates were ridiculed when some of their out-of-the-box development methods became national headlines, including a conditioning workout with Navy SEALs in which one of their prospects suffered a minor injury. The narrative that Huntington was in over his head was gaining steam. In the first five seasons after he replaced Dave Littlefield as GM, the Pirates failed to reach .500, a stretch that included second-half collapses in 2011 and 2012. Meanwhile, Jose Bautista turned into a superstar in Toronto after Huntington traded him there in a throwaway move in August 2008.

While the book builds its narrative around the Pirates' data-based defensive shifts, the more interesting aspect of their rise to prominence, at least from the Phillies' perspective, is how long it took. Team president Pat Gillick has thrown out the years 2017 and 2018 on a few occasions when asked for a target date for a return to respectability, but adhering to that time frame will require almost everything to go right between now and then, and Huntington will certainly attest that a lot can go wrong. No doubt, the Phillies are in a position at which they must attempt to maximize all of the assets at their disposal to infuse the organization with talent that has the potential to help them compete in 2018 and beyond. That means everybody on the current roster should be shopped: Ben Revere, Ken Giles and Jake Diekman, in addition to veterans such as Cole Hamels, Aaron Harang, Chase Utley, and Carlos Ruiz. But the likelihood of developing, or even augmenting, a future playoff core via the trade market is highly unlikely. Huntington's first big blow-it-up move came in 2008, when he traded Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte to the Yankees for Jeff Karstens, Daniel McCutchen, Ross Ohlendorf and Jose Tabata. Only Tabata with the team when the Pirates finally made the playoffs.

At the 2009 trade deadline, Huntington landed Josh Harrison, Jose Ascanio and Kevin Hart from the Cubs for Tom Gorzelanny and John Grabow. A well below league average hitter in his first three seasons, Harrison exploded from out of nowhere last year to hit .315/.347/.490, with 13 home runs and 18 steals in 550 plate appearances. He entered last night's game hitting only .173/.209/.282 in 117 plate appearances. That same year, Huntington packaged reliever Sean Burnett and Nyjer Morgan to land Joel Hanrahan, who three years later landed them current closer Mark Melancon (although the Pirates gave up infielder Brock Holt in the deal). In early June 2009, Pittsburgh landed Jeff Locke and Charlie Morton from the Braves for Nate McLouth. Locke started 21 games last season, posting a 3.91 ERA over 131 1/3 innings with rate stats of 6.1 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, and 1.1 HR/9. Morton started 26 games last year, posting a 3.72 ERA with 7.2 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 and 0.5 HR/9.

Really, the Pirates are where they are - and short of where they could be - because of the additions they have made on the amateur markets. Andrew McCutchen was the No. 11 pick in 2005. Neil Walker was the No. 11 pick in 2004. Starling Marte was an international free agent in 2007. And pitcher Gerrit Cole was the No. 1 overall pick in 2011. Third baseman Pedro Alvarez was the No. 2 overall pick in 2008.

Virtually every other player of consequence on the Pirates roster of last season was signed as a major league free agent, including Francisco Liriano, Edinson Volquez and Vance Worley.

Alvarez is a great example of the stakes of drafting well. While the third baseman hit 30 home runs in back-to-back seasons in 2012 and 2013 and was a league average hitter with 18 home runs at an important defensive position last year, two of the three players drafted immediately after him were first baseman Eric Hosmer and catcher Buster Posey.

Analytics are great. And with the revolutionary data points being logged by MLB's new Statcast system, the gap between the teams poised to make the best use of that information and the teams still struggling to catch up could widen significantly. But even the most proficient organizations can't fast-forward through the rebuilding process. Unless they hire Theo Epstein.

On Twitter: @ByDavidMurphy

Blog: ph.ly/HighCheese