Phillies' prospects in for orientation
But the road to the big leagues is often a long, winding and dead-end one.
HISTORY SUGGESTS the guys who gathered in the Phillies' clubhouse yesterday evening are not The Guys. Yes, they represent the best players in the minor league system. Yes, their names are more intriguing than previous years' participants in the Phillies' annual Prospect Orientation, an event whose title has been much more accurate about the orientating part. But the complexion of a minor league system changes rapidly when a team is losing games and drafting high, so it might be best to keep the Zach Eflin and Tom Windle jerseys on layaway for now.
That's not to say a handful of these guys won't go on to have solid major league careers, or that one or two won't be key contributors to the next Phillies team that isn't forecast to win 70 games. Shortstop J.P. Crawford and righthander Aaron Nola, the Phillies' last two first-round draft picks, are both potential members of the next core group of players. Windle, Eflin, Ben Lively, Joely Rodriguez, Severino Gonzalez, Nefi Ogando, Roman Quinn, Cameron Perkins - there is a reason the Phillies invited all of them for a few days of media and lifestyle training. The point, moreso, is that these probably aren't your 2018 Phillies in waiting. It's just reality.
Take the Cubs, who finally seem poised to become a playoff contender after five straight losing seasons. There are no perfect parallels, but the best approximation for the 2015 Phillies is the Cubs circa 2012. That's the year they bottomed out, finishing with 61 wins after posting 71, 75 and 83 the three previous years (which followed back-to-back first-place finishes in the NL Central).
Now, look at the players whom Baseball America identified as their Top 10 prospects prior to the 2012 season:
No. 1, Brett Jackson: struggled in 142 plate appearances in 2012, left unprotected in the Rule 5 draft this year, selected by the Giants.
No. 3, Matt Szczur: Hit .226 with a .628 OPS in 33 games with the Cubs last year. Not projected to make the Opening Day roster, no longer a Top 10 prospect.
No. 4, Trey McNutt: Ranked by Baseball America as one of the Top 50 prospects in the game in 2011, he was outrighted off the 40-man roster in October 2013 and did not pitch last season.
The list goes on. Of the 10 prospects who made Baseball America's cut in 2012, only Javier Baez, who was ranked No. 2, is projected to make the Opening Day roster. Junior Lake and Welington Castillo spent a couple of seasons in the majors and are still members of the 40-man roster, but both have been replaced by upgrades. Josh Vitters, another former Top 50 prospect, was outrighted last fall. Rafael Dolis became a 6-year free agent and last year was cut by the Giants. Besides Baez, the only member of the 10 who is still considered to have decent potential is first baseman Dan Vogelbach, who spent last year at Class A.
None of this is meant to diminish the job the Phillies have done over the past year to rebuild the depth they had been lacking in their system, particularly on the pitching side. Moreso, it's meant to callibrate expectations. Remember the Baby Aces? No, literally, can you name all five? How about Michael Schwimer, Chris Kissock, Matt Rizzotti and Harold Garcia? They were at the prospect seminar in 2011, along with Mike Stutes and Justin De Fratus. Everybody loves prospects, but in loving them we sometimes forget the reality of who they are, just how special a player must be to simply make it to the big leagues, let alone establish himself as a key contributor on a playoff team. The fun part of the next few years will be watching these guys at Double A and Triple A and trying to figure out which ones might be part of the future. As of today, the only thing we can say for certain is that they are orientated.
Blog: ph.ly/HighCheese