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Phillies' chances to improve next year begin and end with Howard

Darin Ruf is getting some playing time at first, as Phillies continue to suffer under a struggling Ryan Howard.

Philadelphia Phillies' Ryan Howard in baseball action against the Miami Marlins Sunday, Sept. 14, 2014, in Philadelphia.  (H. Rumph Jr/AP)
Philadelphia Phillies' Ryan Howard in baseball action against the Miami Marlins Sunday, Sept. 14, 2014, in Philadelphia. (H. Rumph Jr/AP)Read more

SAN DIEGO - For a team with so many players under club control for next season, the Phillies have a remarkably malleable roster that offers few hints as to what their 2015 squad will look like. Barring a trade, Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley are locks to be in the lineup somewhere. Same goes for Carlos Ruiz. And Ben Revere certainly seems to have done enough to warrant another go-round in centerfield.

But one needed to look only as far as the lineup card hanging in the Phillies' clubhouse yesterday to realize that virtually every other position is muddled. The keystone in virtually every equation is first baseman Ryan Howard, who was out of the lineup last night for the second straight night and who has shown no signs of busting out of his seasonlong - and, to a lesser extent, 3-year-long - funk. Against lefty Robbie Erlin, righthanded-hitting Darin Ruf started at first base, while righthanded-hitting Maikel Franco started at third base.

A similar lineup helped pace the Phillies to a 5-2 win over the Padres on Wednesday night.

"Sticking with the lineup that worked, in some regard," manager Ryne Sandberg said.

The question is whether he could stick with that lineup for a much longer term next season. Thus far, Sandberg has been reluctant to give Ruf regular at-bats at first base, choosing instead to play Howard regularly, while working Ruf into an outfield rotation that includes Marlon Byrd, Domonic Brown and Grady Sizemore.

Howard entered last night hitting .222 with a .311 OBP, .374 slugging percentage and 21 home runs. Since the start of September, he was only 8-for-45 with one extra-base hit (a home run), and 23 strikeouts and nine walks in 55 plate appearances. He has shown little improvement since a three-game benching in late July. In 194 plate appearances since he returned to the lineup, Howard was hitting only .220/.325/.366 with 59 strikeouts and six home runs. Over the last three seasons, he has hit only .233/.309/.410 in 295 games. His OPS+ during that stretch is 97 (100 is average, meaning Howard has performed about 3 percentage points below average, according to the metric, which uses a formula that includes on-base percentage and slugging percentage measured against league average with an adjustment for ballpark).

"He just seems to be just off the ball a little bit more than he was a few weeks ago," Sandberg said. "Just a little bit off. He's getting himself in some holes and, missing some pitches and fouling some pitches off, misses his pitch."

While the Phillies will undoubtedly continue to attempt to trade Howard, who can block a deal to most MLB teams and will earn 10-and-5 veto rights late next April, it's hard to imagine a team agreeing to acquire him and take on much more than the $500,000 or so veteran minimum salary.

Howard still has more than $60 million remaining on his contract, with $25 million salaries in 2015 and 2016 and a $10 million buyout of a team option in 2017, when he will be 37.

A couple for-instances:

Besides the Phillies, only five teams have a lower OPS at first base than Howard's .685: the Padres (.678), the Reds (.665), the Mariners (.651), the Rangers (.639) and the Astros (.603). Other teams that could use help at first: the Rays (.718 OPS), the Indians (.716 OPS), the Marlins (.709 OPS), the Yankees (.709 OPS), the Red Sox (.706 OPS), the Pirates (.700 OPS), the Twins (.696 OPS), the Royals (.694 OPS), and the Brewers (.692 OPS).

Over in Milwaukee, Mark Reynolds has essentially mirrored Howard's line, posting a .685 OPS with 22 home runs and 121 strikeouts in 428 plate appearances, and the Brewers landed Reynolds on a minor league deal. Perhaps a team would kick in some guaranteed money for Howard on the off chance he can at least bounce back to give them league average production at first base or designated hitter. But other bounce-back candidates will be out there as free agents, including Ryan Doumit and Kendrys Morales, along with more productive players such as Victor Martinez, Mike Morse, Nelson Cruz, Michael Cuddyer and Josh Willingham. Each of those 1B/DH types would seem to be more attractive options than Howard.

Or, compare Howard's numbers over the last 3 years with the ones Garrett Jones posted in the three seasons leading up to the 2-year, $7.75 million contract he signed to play first base for the Marlins in 2014 and 2015:

Howard, 2012-14: .233/.309/.410, 46 HRs, 371 strikeouts, 1,220 plate appearances.

Jones, 2011-13: .251/.309/.459, 58 HRs, 308 SOs, 1,433 plate appearances.

Long story short, trading Howard won't be much different from releasing him, since the Phillies won't get even a marginal prospect in return, and will have to eat all but, at the very most, $7 million of the $60 million remaining on Howard's deal. More likely, the Phillies won't find a suitor willing to take on even that minuscule amount.

In 20 starts, Ruf is hitting an impressive .300/.371/.517 with three home runs, 20 strikeouts and six walks in 71 plate appearances. His overall numbers are dragged down by his 2-for-18 performance as a pinch-hitter. Whatever happens with Howard, Ruf should be a fixture in the 2015 lineup until he proves otherwise.