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Cuban slugger likely won't be coming to Phillies

Slugging outfielder Yasmani Tomas will command big dollars and may make more sense for a contending team.

Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. (Bill Streicher/USA Today Sports)
Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. (Bill Streicher/USA Today Sports)Read more

SAN DIEGO - The strongest reason you shouldn't get your hopes up about Yasmani Tomas is the self-evident one: The long list of attributes that would make Tomas an ideal fit for the Phillies' lineup are the same attributes that would make him an ideal fit for just about every major league lineup, and the same motivation the Phillies have to pursue the Cuban slugger aggressively is shared with the rest of the teams that will pursue him.

Twenty-three-year old outfielders with the potential to hit .300 with 30 home runs are not typically available on the free-agent market, which is now little more than a wasteland of end-of-prime veterans looking to maximize their final chance at a big payday. But every team in the majors realizes that. Note the 7-year, $72.5 million contract Cuban centerfielder Rusney Castillo signed with the Red Sox. The Phillies were interested in Castillo, going so far as to host him for a private workout. But the Red Sox were willing to pay him more.

As with Castillo, Tomas' eventual landing place will be determined by who values him the most. Since every team in the majors will be operating off the same information - Tomas' track record in Cuba's Serie Nacional and the World Baseball Classic and his performance in Sunday's showcase in the Dominican Republic - the difference in valuation likely will be determined by a combination of a team's disposable income and need. And there, an argument can be made that Tomas inevitably will offer greater marginal utility to a team for whom he is a difference-maker with respect to its World Series odds.

All other things being equal, if the Phillies project that Tomas will be the difference between 76 and 81 wins, and the Blue Jays or Giants or Yankees project that he will be the difference between 84 wins and 89 wins, then it stands to reason those latter three teams will inherently value Tomas higher than the Phillies will.

Whatever happens, one thing is clear: The Cuban market is no longer undervalued. Gone are the days when Yasiel Puig can sign for 7 years and $42 million, and Jose Abreu can sign for 6 years and $68 million. It would not be surprising in the least to see the bidding for Tomas to reach 7 years and $105 million. The Phillies can afford that kind of commitment. But so can a number of other teams, many of whom will enter the negotiations having laid a far more deliberate and conducive plan for such an expenditure than the Phillies. They still owe Ryan Howard $60 million through the 2016 season, and Cliff Lee $37.5 million through next season, and Chase Utley $15 million through at least next season, and Jonathan Papelbon $13 million through at least next season, and will likely need to turn over their entire roster short of Cole Hamels and the bullpen before even a talent like Tomas can pay dividends in the form of a playoff berth.

Logic suggests that Tomas will be worth more to at least one of the many teams who figure to involve themselves in the bidding.

West suspended

Two days after Jonathan Papelbon was suspended seven games for his crotch grab and subsequent run-in with umpire Joe West, West himself was suspended for a game for gripping Papelbon by the jersey as the closer barked in his face.

"Joe West handled himself appropriately in ejecting Papelbon after the player's lewd gesture to the fans,'' major league executive vice president Joe Torre said in a statement. "I fully understand that Joe was reacting to a player who was acting aggressively, and can understand his frustration with the situation. However, Joe knows that an umpire cannot initiate physical contact with a player, just as a player cannot initiate physical contact with an umpire. I spoke to Joe about the incident, and he admitted there was a better way to handle the situation. I consider this matter closed.''

Evaluating 'Mag'

This probably will not come as a surprise, but Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez remains the same unknown commodity he has been ever since he signed a 3-year, $12 million contract last summer. The 27-year-old Cuban has shown impressive velocity on his fastball, which has sat from 95 to 97 mph during four appearances since his call-up. But he has allowed nine of the 21 batters he has faced to reach base, six via hit, three via walk. Part of the problem has been his inability to put batters away. Hitters are averaging 4.86 pitches per plate appearance against him, the third-highest mark in the National League among pitchers with at least four innings pitched. A small sample size, sure. But batters sure do seem to be fouling off an awful lot of his fastballs in the strike zone, extending at-bats and forcing him to throw more pitches.

"He's shown a good fastball," manager Ryne Sandberg said. "For me, the next step for him is to develop a breaking pitch that would be more of a side-to-side pitch. He does seem to have some long innings, some prolonged at-bats with the fastball and the changeup. Once you see a fastball, a major league hitter will adjust to a fastball. And with the fastball and the changeup, they are kind of on the same plane coming in. He needs something coming in side-to-side."

The development of a legitimate breaking pitch will likely determine whether Gonzalez can complement Ken Giles and Jake Diekman as a setup-type reliever, or whether he is destined to pitch in the front of the bullpen as a multiple-innings type.

Blog: ph.ly/HighCheese