Phillies' best strategy for Lee is to wait till he's better

THE PHILLIES have lost 14 of 21 games since Cliff Lee last threw a baseball, thereby removing any doubt about how they should proceed to handle the July 31 nonwaiver trade deadline. If they need a reminder of the potential cost of waiting, there sits Lee.

The veteran lefthander has not thrown a baseball in 23 days. He is close to picking one up, his manager said yesterday. But that will mark only the halfway point in the process of getting him back on the mound. And so, the Phillies wait.

Once upon a time, Lee was the team's most valuable trading chip, a perennial Cy Young contender with a dominant postseason track record and a burning desire to win. Sure, there was the $50 million or so remaining on his contract and the no-trade clause that allows him to block deals to all but nine teams. But those things have a way of working themselves out, as the baseball folks say.

Now? The smartest thing the Phillies can do is wait. Forget about watching Cliff Lee pitch, and forget about trading him to another team. The best place for the veteran lefthander to be is on the sideline, waiting for the pain in his left elbow to leave.

A strained flexor tendon, as opposed to the muscles it attaches to the bone, is a 4- to 8-week injury, usually in the latter half of that time frame, or longer. That's what it was Jason Grilli and David Phelps in 2013, and that's what it will likely end up being for Lee. It was nearly 3 months for Rich Hill in 2012.

The Phillies never announced a timetable for Lee's return, leaving him in a perpetual state of day-to-day that makes it feel as if the whole thing is taking longer than expected. But this is normal.

"This is the first time he's gone through something like this, other than some neck and back issues, so it's all new to him," manager Ryne Sandberg said. "In that area, it's necessary to get pain-free before he starts anything. The sensation and discomfort lingered a little bit longer."

"Pain-free" is the important term, and it's a good sign that the Phillies seem determined to take it literally. Because, at this point, the July 31 nonwaiver trade deadline is probably a lost cause.

Lee last pitched May 18. The Phillies hope that Lee will be able to play catch within the next couple of days, which will mark the start of the real recovery. Catch will progress to long toss, which will progress to longer toss, which will give way to a light bullpen season, followed by a more intense bullpen session, and, if each of those steps is pain-free, Lee will make at least one rehab start.

That's how it usually works, that's how it should work, and that's how the Phillies seem determined to make it work this time around. And that's a good thing, because nobody wins if Lee climbs back on the mound too soon and inflicts further damage on his elbow, which is what often happens in these cases. The Phillies announced Lee's tendon injury as a strain between Grades 1 and 2. Grade 3 is surgery.

Best-case scenario, Lee is ready to pitch July 1 in Miami. That would give him three starts before the All-Star break, and then three more starts before the July 31 deadline. It is hard to imagine six starts will be enough to convince a team that his injury risk is low enough to make it worth taking on the roughly $50 million remaining on Lee's deal, as well as parting with a top-level prospect. Especially when there are two younger, less expensive, healthier options in David Price and Jeff Samardzija who are likely to be available.

Maybe by the end of August, a team might be willing to claim Lee on waivers and then attempt to work out a deal. But there is a good chance that maximizing Lee's value will mean getting him completely healthy, so that he can put together two consecutive months of everyday dominance. Then, perhaps, the Phillies can shop him in the offseason or at next year's trade deadline. In the meantime, they can give fans another reason to show up at the ballpark every fifth day.

On Twitter: @ByDavidMurphy

Blog: ph.ly/HighCheese