Count on Phillies getting a deal done for Hamels

In lieu of the normal analysis you read in this space each week, I must offer an apology. You place a certain amount of trust in me, even if the trust extends only as far as your belief in my ability to punctuate properly and communicate in complete sentences. For the past few months, I have taken advantage of that trust. Instead of taking steps to ease your angst, I have preyed upon it.

Let's face it. The Cole Hamels contract situation makes for great copy. Star pitcher, 28 years old, homegrown World Series MVP, still improving to this day, on the verge of riches that most of us can hardly imagine, and, as of last week, unsigned for next season. It's chock-full of the types of angles that can carry a baseball writer through a long season. But it's also irrelevant. Because the Phillies will end up re-signing him. Remove the paper bag from your mouth and reread that sentence. Barring injury, Cole Hamels will be pitching his home starts at Citizens Bank Park next season, and the season after that, and for several seasons after that.

Whenever it happens - I'm guessing the end of July, right around the time the Brad Lidge extension was announced in 2008 - you can tell people I broke the story right here. Not because anybody from the Phillies has provided me with inside information that it will happen. But because it must happen.

Now ball up that paper bag and throw it away and reread that last paragraph. Signing Hamels is a necessity for the Phillies organization. Ruben Amaro Jr. knows it. David Montgomery knows it. And you have to think that Hamels' agent knows it, which might be why the dog and pony show hasn't happened yet.

Think about it. Think about what you have seen on the field this season. Think about what you have seen on the disabled list. Think about the blue seats that seem to increase with every homestand, and the buy-one-get-one-free ticket promotion the team is running for one of the games this week against the first-place Dodgers.

Now think about what happens if the Phillies continue their recent trend by either exiting the postseason early or missing it entirely. Think about the $110 million or so they already have committed to next year's payroll, and think about all of the tickets they need to sell to pay those salaries, along with those of the other 15 to 18 players who will be on the 2013 Opening Day roster. Think about the new television contract that the Phillies hope to sign between now and 2015, when the current deal with Comcast expires.

Think about all of this. And then ask yourself: If the worst-case scenario becomes the actual-case scenario, how will the Phillies sell those tickets, and negotiate that contract, and fill Citizens Bank Park with any sort of excitement heading into a new season? You can take it one step further by asking yourself what message the organization would send to its fan base and advertisers and television partners if it allows one of the few reasons for excitement about the future of the franchise to walk out the door to Los Angeles or Chicago or, gasp, Boston or New York. It took a long time for the Phillies to start acting like one of baseball's premier franchises, but now that they have bought into the notion, nearly doubling their payroll since their championship season, they have gone to great lengths to sell it to their fans and advertisers and television partners.

As Roy Halladay's current shoulder injury shows, the current roster does not have a heck of a lot of known commodities moving forward. Chase Utley still has yet to see a pitch in this, the second-to-last year of his contract. Halladay's deal could expire after next season, depending on the fate of a vesting option that is contingent on injuries and innings pitched. Shane Victorino is eligible to become a free agent after this season. Hunter Pence is eligible after next season. Jimmy Rollins is still one of the best defensive players in the game, but he has not hit like an offensive centerpiece since his MVP season in 2007. There will be a vacancy at third base, and a potential vacancy in leftfield.

They call it The Show for a reason, and the Phillies know that they need to live up to the billing, lest the cash cow cease production of her sweet, sweet milk. Signing Hamels to a deal that the market says he deserves is one of their few options for inspiring faith in a better tomorrow. And the Phillies must know that they could end up costing themselves tens of millions of dollars if they wait until the open market, when teams such as the Dodgers or the Cubs or the Yankees or the Red Sox could drive the price even higher than it is now.

The only unknowns are the details. How do I think it will unfold? The Phillies offer Cliff Lee's deal, Hamels and John Boggs ask for C.C. Sabathia's deal, and around the trade deadline we all get a press release that says the two sides have agreed on a 6-year, $138 million contract.

Maybe the announcement comes coupled with a trade for a hitter who can help carry the offense as the team fights to stay in contention. Maybe it doesn't. Either way, the Phillies will retain the best pitcher they have ever developed, Hamels will remain in his adopted home, and fans will look forward to celebrating the Cy Young Award that he seems destined to win.

Now, breathe easy, and forgive.

Contact David Murphy at murphyd@phillynews.com. Follow him on Twitter @HighCheese. For more Phillies coverage and opinion, read his Phillies blog, High Cheese, at www.philly.com/HighCheese.