When it comes to trade rumors, it's tough to separate fact from fiction

ONCE AGAIN, here we are just days before the July 31 non-waiver trading deadline, that date on the calendar when Phillies fans glance at the potentially available talent on other teams, rub their hands together greedily and say, "OK, who is Ruben going to bring in this year?"

Go back over the acquisitions that Ruben Amaro Jr. has engineered since he became general manager in November 2008, and it is easy to see why the fans are on alert. At the trading deadline in 2009, he took Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee off the Indians. That December, he swapped Lee to the Mariners and replaced him with another Cy Young Award winner, Roy Halladay, of the Blue Jays. Last July, he worked a deal with the Astros for another All-Star pitcher, Roy Oswalt. Then he dipped into the free-agency pool last December and re-signed Lee, who pitched last year for the Mariners and Rangers and appeared to be headed to the Yankees until Amaro grabbed him.

So, you ask: Who is it going to be this year?

Rumors are flying (as opposed to how it used to be in Philadelphia, when rumors were always "crawling" at this point in the season). On of them is that the Phillies are angling for a righthanded bat.

Could it be Hunter Pence, of the Astros? Houston general manager Ed Wade worked out the Oswalt deal with Amaro, his former assistant when he served in the same capacity with the Phillies.

Or could it be Carlos Beltran, of the Mets? Some reports have the Phillies as one of the favorites to land him.

Oh, and did we mention switch-hitting Melky Cabrera? There is word that the Phillies also have discussed him with the Royals.

Or . . . it could be that the Phillies will go in another direction altogether, possibly adding Marlins reliever Leo Nunez to shore up the bullpen.

Everyone is talking with the exception of the one man whose opinion carries any weight: Ruben Amaro Jr. In keeping with his philosophy - which is to keep a lid on potential player transactions until they happen - Amaro has been unavailable to the media for a week or so now, and is not expected to re-emerge until the trading deadline has expired Sunday. However, he did speak with the Daily News in June, when he expounded on the "art of keeping secrets." Because if there has been a commonality to the deals he has pulled off, they had been more or less conducted out of the public eye and have landed on our doorstep like an unexpected package from UPS at Christmas.

"Business cannot get done unless people keep quiet," Amaro said that June evening in the corridor leading to the Phillies' clubhouse. "When you start getting involved with rumors and people opining on what you should and should not be doing, what happens is that it begins to sway people and hinders your ability to get something done."

Rumors; they are everywhere. In Philadelphia alone, the Eagles have been rumored to have an eye on just-paroled wide receiver Placixo Burress, Raiders cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha and the apparently still not retired quarterback Brett Favre. In Sixerland, prior to the lockout, rumors circulated that star Andre Iguodala was either headed to the Clippers for Chris Kaman, the Lakers for Lamar Odom or the Warriors for Monta Ellis. Rumor also has had it during this offseason that the Flyers were on the verge of extending an offer sheet to Tampa Bay goal-scorer Steven Stamkos. None of this has come to pass, which begs the question: In the age of the blogosphere, Twitter and other online outlets, what percentage actually does?

Amaro smiled. "Ninety percent of it is very, very silly," he said. "But it depends on how you define 'true.' Something that is out there as a rumor may have been an idea that someone once had that was never executed, and it just happened to get out there. I think that fuels this stuff. Someone picks up on it and it spreads from there."

Others would place the percentage of unfounded rumors even higher than 90 percent. "In the case of the Flyers, I think 99 percent of them have been false, including rumors that we were going to sign certain players that [general manager] Paul Holmgren and his staff were not even considering," said Peter Luukko, the president and COO of Comcast-Spectacor. "What we are seeing now - and I am not speaking of the legitimate reporters who are covering the team - are an overwhelming number of people who are throwing information out there and checking the facts later."

To keep the leaks from springing, Amaro said that he has cautioned agents that "if [information] gets out there, the negotiation is over." While Amaro said that he has never been forced to walk away from a deal because of that, he said, "That is pretty much how we operate. If people want to risk not getting a deal done, that can happen if it gets out there." Amaro added that while he gives his subordinates the latitude to speak with the media, he has implemented a policy with the Phillies that forbids "vital information" to be sent electronically. "I give our people leeway to express themselves because they know what they are doing," said Amaro. "I just think information can be misconstrued in text, and I would prefer that we communicate verbally."

Luukko said he did not think the Flyers would halt a deal due to a leak. "But we would not be very happy," he said. Luukko added that the Flyers haven't implemented a policy regarding the transmission of information electronically. But he understands that times have changed. Where once he would share something with a beat reporter of a deal that could be in the works and ask him to "sit on it," Luukko said now the pressure to break news is so intense that he does less of that "in order protect the reporter and ourselves." Luukko, Amaro and others agree that loose information can be not just an irritation but undermine your competitive advantage.

But it is not just that you do not want the opposition to know what you are up to, according to Luukko. Given how deals are generally done, with players swapped in and out of proposed packages at the 11th hour, you would prefer that the player you are thinking of unloading not know in the event that you still have to work with him. Why take the chance of creating bad blood if you can avoid it?

"Plus," Luukko said, "I know these are professional athletes but they are also people who have wives and children. When unfounded rumors pop up, of players being traded or not signed at the end of the season, I think it is unfair and somewhat disgusting."

According to Dave Coskey, a former marketing executive with Comcast-Spectacor, rumors can originate from a variety of sources. Coskey, president of Longport Media, said, "You hear Joe from Kensington call up WIP and say, 'You know what I heard . . . ' And think, 'Oh yeah? Where did you hear it? Were you and Ruben hanging out in the standing-room-only section at Citizens Bank Park?' " But according to Brian Baldinger, an analyst for the NFL Network and a former offensive lineman, there are "hundreds of people working in an organization," any one of whom could "see something and get a rumor started." Baldinger said that "everyone is trying to connect the dots" and points to the Burress rumors as an example: Burress left prison wearing a Phillies cap. The Eagles play in Philadelphia. The Eagles had success rehabilitating another ex-con, Michael Vick. There, the Eagles and Burress would be a perfect fit.''

But there is no assurance that once connected, "the dots" will form an accurate picture. Coskey remembers an occasion when Comcast-Spectacor chairman Ed Snider and former New Jersey Nets owner Lewis Katz, a friend, were sitting with each other at a Sixers-Nets game. The Nets were blowing out the Sixers and Katz would not stop needling him. With his face reddened with anger, Snider stood up, walked off in a huff and stood in the tunnel leading to the locker room. Coincidentally, seated near there was Sixers general manager Billy King. Some cameramen snapped a photo of Snider, who appeared to be clearly upset at King.

"But he was angry at his friend, Lewis Katz, not King," said Coskey. "The Daily News carried the photo, and the story became: 'Billy King is going to lose his job.' "

But some rumors are true. John Nash, a general manager for the Sixers and three other NBA teams, said some of the biggest deals he ever did never came out ahead of time. But he does remember one that occurred years ago that became public, when former Sixers general manager Jack Ramsay and then-Chicago Bulls general manager Pat Williams were in negotiations to swap Chet Walker for Jim Washington. Nash explained how word of it got out.

"Back in those days, WIP had a Tipster Line, when you got $25 if you called in with a tip that turned out to be true," Nash said. "Jack told his son Chris, who was then 10 or so, and Chris told one of his buddies on the beach in Ocean City. And the friend called in the deal to WIP before it happened. I hope he got his $25."

Ironically, there is a flip side to rumors that Coskey says can be useful. "In a funny way, as annoying as they can be, you have to be thankful for them," he said. "The bottom line is, if people did not care enough to spread them, none of us would have our jobs."

Luukko echoed that. "It can drive you absolutely crazy, but they are pretty good for us," he said. "At the end of the day, you want people talking about you."