Charlie Manuel tweaks Phillies opening-day lineup

Ninety-four times last season, Charlie Manuel changed the batting order of his lineup. Injuries, ineffectiveness, and indecision prompted a new combination regularly. Yet his starting eight was arranged in exactly the same way for Game 1 as it was in Game 162.

For how long this newest Manuel lineup lasts remains to be seen. It could be one day; Houston throws Wandy Rodriguez, a lefthander, on Saturday. But without Chase Utley and Jayson Werth to bookend Ryan Howard, Manuel will go against one of his hard-lined principles.

Jimmy Rollins is not his leadoff hitter - for now. Instead, it's Shane Victorino.

In just 40 games since Manuel became manager of this team has Rollins batted third, which is where the shortstop will find himself Friday at 1:05 p.m. when Roy Halladay opens the 2011 season against Brett Myers and the Houston Astros at Citizens Bank Park.

Just twice before has Rollins not started the season as the leadoff hitter. In 2004, he batted seventh with Marlon Byrd the top man. In 2001, he hit second behind Doug Glanville.

By June 1, 2004, Rollins was back in the leadoff spot. At the end of July 2001, he was hitting first.

Ideally, for Manuel, when (or if) Utley returns, Rollins could be headed back to his customary leadoff spot. But, as the manager said, he could be a decent fit at No. 3.

"He is a guy who has knocked in over 90 runs before," Manuel said. "He did that in the No. 1 hole. So why can't he do it in the No. 3 hole?"

Armchair managers can spend hours dissecting lineup construction, but the arguments are typically moot. Statistical studies have shown there is little difference in most lineup combinations. Protection is overstated. There is one maxim: Your best players, the ones with the highest on-base percentage, should have the most plate appearances. Thus, they should bat in the upper third.

Manuel subscribes to that notion, in theory.

"The key to Howard is if we can have people on base in front of him," Manuel said. "People talk about who hits behind him. I think having runners on definitely makes a manager think a lot over there and also the pitcher on the mound, too. I think that's what's going to help Howard more than anything."

In each of the last two seasons, Rollins has posted an on-base percentage below the National League average. His career OBP of .328 is just four points above the league average from a season ago.

Other than his speed, Rollins does not possess the typical characteristics of a leadoff hitter.

"He hit 30 homers, 20 doubles, and he has extra-base hit potential," Manuel said. "The only thing that he needs to work on when he's right is that he can improve his on-base percentage."

That makes him more suited for the third spot, where he can be more of a run producer. If anything, the main concern for Manuel in his lineup creation is putting the right people in place for Howard to bat with runners on base.

At least to start, the leadoff role will fall to Victorino, who saw a massive drop in on-base percentage from 2009 to 2010. Some (like Mike Schmidt) would argue that is because Victorino was batting lower in the order and more concerned about his power numbers and driving in runs.

Victorino did hit a career-high 18 home runs but his slugging percentage dropped 16 points. His on-base percentage went from .358 to .327.

Hitting leadoff could be the psychological push Victorino needs to focus on simply getting on base. This spring, he worked on bunting for hits, a staple of his offensive game in previous years.

"He needs to be selective," Manuel said.

Manuel's lineup will likely change and then change again. But without Utley and Werth in the middle, a priority will be placed on those at the top of the lineup getting on base.