As second half begins, Phillies have plenty to prove

LIFE IS cyclical. Yesterday's produce is today's compost. Yesterday's milk is today's cottage cheese. Yesterday's William Wallace is today's TMZ punch line.

Which leaves us to ponder the following question:

Where do these Phillies fit?

Are they sleeping giants bound to return to their rightful spot atop the division? Or are they passengers on a downward spiral, destined to pant creepily into history's voice mail about something that used to be theirs?

Are they the team that hit 18 home runs and won eight of 12 games against the Mets, Cardinals, Braves and Rockies from April 30 to May 12? Or are they the team that averaged 2.4 runs and lost 16 of 23 games from May 18 to June 12?

Or are they somewhere in between, a team that has the ability of sweeping a playoff-caliber opponent in four games as long as they get dominant pitching efforts from Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels (which they did in a pair of 1-0 victories that capped a sweep of the Reds to end the first half)? And would that make them any different from the team that scored three runs or fewer in six of their 14 postseason games in 2008?

The answer won't reveal itself until long after tonight, when the two-time defending National League champs begin their post-All-Star-break schedule with a four-game series at Wrigley Field.

Rating the aptitude of this team at midseason is like rating the physical attractiveness of a club-goer at midnight - a lot of it depends on the lighting, as well as the types of drinks you have been ingesting throughout the evening.

On one hand: Their 47-40 record through 87 games isn't much different from what it was in 2008 (48-39), when they won the World Series, or 2009 (49-38), when they lost in six games to the Yankees.

On the other: Their third-place standing and 4 1/2-game deficit behind the 52-36 Braves is a far cry from what it was in either of the previous two seasons, when they had leads of five games (over 46-45 Florida in 2009) and 3 1/2 games (over 44-42 Florida in 2008).

One hand: The Phillies are just 1 1/2 games behind co-wild card leaders Los Angeles and Colorado.

The other: Of the 16 teams who made the playoffs in 2008 and 2009, all but three entered the All-Star break leading either their division or the wild card (the exceptions: Twins and Rockies in 2009, Dodgers in 2008).

One hand: The Phillies have a history of finishing strong, going 44-31 in their final 75 games in both 2008 and 2009.

The other: So do several of the teams they could be chasing, including Atlanta (43-32 to finish 2009), Colorado (46-29 to finish 2009), St. Louis (44-31 to finish 2009) and the Dodgers (42-33 to finish 2008). Besides, the difference between the Phils' winning percentage in their final 75 and first 87 equated to a gain of two wins in 2009 and a gain of three in 2008.

One hand: They are still in the thick of things, despite enduring extended injury-related absences by half of their regulars (Jimmy Rollins, Placido Polanco, Chase Utley, Carlos Ruiz), two of their most consistent starters from a year ago (Joe Blanton, J.A. Happ), and their top four relievers over the last two seasons (Ryan Madson, Chad Durbin, Brad Lidge, J.C. Romero). By the end of next week, everybody except Utley and Happ are expected to be back in the fold.

The other: Injuries happen. And there is no guarantee they won't continue to happen. The Phillies have the oldest group of position players (32.1 years old) and pitchers (31.9) in the majors, according to a calculation by the well-respected statistical website Baseball-Reference.com, which uses a formula that factors in playing time. The Red Sox - who boast the AL's oldest collection of hitters and second-oldest collection of pitchers, as defined by Baseball-Reference - have a 51-37 record despite a major league-high 11 players on the disabled list (although they did enter the season with a payroll that was about $20 million larger than the Phils).

One hand: The Phillies are in desperate need of more bang for their buck out of players like Shane Victorino (3-year, $22 million contract through 2012) and Raul Ibanez (signed through 2011 at $11.5 million per year). Victorino, a career .279 hitter with a .342 on-base percentage, is hitting .250 with a .317 OBP. Ibanez, who averaged 24 home runs and hit .290 with a .489 slugging percentage from 2002-09, is hitting .243 with a .397 slugging percentage and seven home runs.

The other: As bad as Ibanez's power numbers are now, they were even worse in 2007, when he finished July hitting .253 with a .389 slugging percentage and six home runs in 94 games. He finished the last 2 months hitting .357 with a .634 slugging percentage and 15 home runs in 55 games. Victorino has shown a similar ability to get hot, and he already has 48 RBI and career-high-tying 14 home runs.

Perhaps the biggest mystery surrounds the trade deadline. In each of the last three seasons, the Phillies have augmented their pitching staff prior to July 31, and general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. has made no secret of his desire to do so again. There are plenty of questions about the rotation – Can Blanton turn things around? Can Kyle Kendrick and Jamie Moyer keep it up? – and an inconsistent bullpen. But there are also plenty of questions about the Phillies' bargaining chips in the minors, as well as untouchable - and perhaps soon-to-be-ready - prospect Domonic Brown.

The answers start coming tonight. *

For more Phillies coverage and opinion, read David Murphy's blog, High Cheese, at http://go.philly.com/highcheese.