Skip to content
Link copied to clipboard

Paul Hagen: It's too early to panic about Werth's contract

CLEARWATER, Fla. - Already, if the chat-room chatter and the talk-show blah-blah-blah and the e-mail angst are any indication, a low-grade panic about rightfielder Jayson Werth is running through Phillies Nation.

Jayson Werth will be a free agent at the end of this season unless he gets a new deal. (Daivd Swanson/Staff Photographer)
Jayson Werth will be a free agent at the end of this season unless he gets a new deal. (Daivd Swanson/Staff Photographer)Read more

CLEARWATER, Fla. - Already, if the chat-room chatter and the talk-show blah-blah-blah and the e-mail angst are any indication, a low-grade panic about rightfielder Jayson Werth is running through Phillies Nation.

He worked out for the first time at Bright House Field yesterday. The first official full-squad workout isn't until today. The worrywarts are in midseason form, though. Werth is the only regular position player who hasn't signed beyond this season. General manager Ruben Amaro Jr. has mentioned cryptically that there are limits to how much higher the team can push a payroll that figures to exceed $140 million this year.

Mix that simple fact and that basic quote together and it creates an incendiary mix. Distill the fretting down to a single question and it sounds something like this:

How can the Phillies afford to allow Werth to walk away as a free agent at the end of the season?

Glad you asked.

For starters, this is all so ridiculously premature. There are still 5 weeks of spring training, 6 months of the regular season and - if the Phillies are lucky - another 3 weeks of postseason to get through before this works its way to the top of the agenda.

If he has another good year after hitting 36 homers and driving in 99 runs in 2009, he should be able to command a huge contract after the season. Think Jason Bay and the Mets. Think Matt Holliday with the Cardinals. Each signed a long-term deal over the winter with an average annual value of more than $16 million.

And, frankly, that might be a bit difficult for the Phillies to accommodate, especially considering that they don't have significant money coming off the payroll at the end of this year and Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins can become free agents after 2011.

Still, it's just plain silly to start obsessing over what-ifs right now.

Bottom line: The Phillies think they have a chance to win another world championship this season. That has to be the focus. It's also the answer to another common question about whether the Phillies would consider trading Werth before the trading deadline rather than risk losing him as a free agent.

No, no, no. That's what out-of-contention teams do. It's hard to imagine a scenario in which the Phillies are so far out of the race in July that they would even consider such a thing.

Besides, baseball seasons are unpredictable. There's no way of knowing what will happen. While there's no reason to believe he can't match, or even exceed, his production from last season, slumps happen. So do injuries. And it's not just about what Werth does, either.

What if Raul Ibanez, who turns 38 in June, doesn't bounce back from sports-hernia surgery and starts acting his age? What if phenom Domonic Brown tears up the minors? Or what if he doesn't? What if they win the World Series? What if they don't even make the playoffs?

All those factors will impact how much the Phillies might be willing to spend to keep their lineup intact.

And while the past might not always be prelude, it's interesting to note that the Phillies have replaced one position player each of the last two offseasons, even though they advanced to the World Series. Leftfielder Pat Burrell departed after 2008 and third baseman Pedro Feliz after 2009.

Sitting on a picnic table outside the Phillies' clubhouse yesterday afternoon, Werth tiptoed carefully around questions regarding his contract and the likelihood that he would be back in Clearwater next spring.

He said there have been only very preliminary discussions with the Phillies regarding an extension, characterizing the talks as conversations more than negotiations. He said he wouldn't set an Opening Day deadline to get a deal done and would be willing to consider re-upping during the season.

He talked at length about how much he enjoys his teammates and playing in Philadelphia.

What he did not say was that he would be willing to take less money or that he felt as if he owed the Phillies a hometown discount for claiming him on waivers after a wrist injury threatened his career and giving him a chance to put up the kind of numbers that he has.

Personal opinion: Werth doesn't owe the Phillies anything. Yes, the organization gave him a chance. And he repaid them by having a terrific season for a very reasonable $3 million last year. He'll make $7 million this year which, by baseball standards, will also be a bargain if he even comes close to replicating last season.

It's always dangerous to try to read between the lines, to parse every public utterance for deeper meaning. But it was interesting that, in answer to a question, he invoked the name of Aaron Rowand.

Rowand preached winning. He talked about how much he enjoyed playing for the Phillies. He was wildly popular for his all-out effort. He became a folk hero by sacrificing his face to make a spectacular catch before slamming into the wall.

But when he became a free agent after the 2007 season, he took the 5-year deal from the San Francisco Giants rather than the 3-year offer from the Phillies.

"Aaron Rowand would have loved to have been here the last couple years," Werth said.

Many considered Rowand's loss devastating. Two World Series appearances later, it clearly wasn't.

Werth said repeatedly that he wasn't thinking about his contract, that he was just concentrating on the season ahead.

Fans would be wise to take a chill pill and do the same.

Send e-mail to hagenp@phillynews.com