Rich Hofmann: Can Phillies' Hamels handle the curves?

IN THE BACK of "The Bill James Handbook 2010," where the author predicts the future based on the numbers of the past, they occupy consecutive lines on a page: Roy Halladay followed immediately by Cole Hamels. That sounds about right, alphabetically and otherwise.

James sees Hamels having a bounce-back season in 2010, and there is every reason to believe he is correct. James sees Halladay and Hamels winning 32 games and pitching 450 innings between them, which the Phillies would sign up for immediately if given the chance. Out of just two arms, it would be about one-third of what they would need to win the National League East again.

If it happens, the Cliff Lee conversation will fade in late summer (only to be rekindled in October). If it happens, and if the Phillies win the World Series as a result, the lamentable decision not to keep Lee for 2010 - and it was lamentable, and it revealed a fixation on the future that blinded them to a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity in the present - will become a told-you-so moment for Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr., if he is so inclined.

But Hamels controls the agenda. After a tough 2009, his performance will determine what we are talking about in July and what we are talking about again in October.

James, for his part, sees it going down like this:

IP W- L ERA

Halladay . . . 240 17-10 3.23

Hamels . . . 210 15-9 3.43

It seems eminently reasonable; remember, Hamels is only 26 years old. It's a funny thing about Hamels and this city. The guy has a distinctive personality, yes, but he also has elite ability. When 2009 went bad for him - a not entirely unpredictable result of the big jump in innings he experienced in 2008, when he ruled the postseason - the fixation became on the personality. But beneath that, there is every reason to believe that the elite ability remains.

A more normal offseason, both mentally and physically, would seem likely to build the foundation that Hamels needs. Phils manager Charlie Manuel said yesterday that he had not personally spoken to Hamels, but that "[athletic trainer] Scott Sheridan said Hamels has been working out very well this winter. He's been doing a lot of work."

The other question involves Hamels' third pitch, after his fastball and his changeup. The curveball last year became a mystery. He threw it less than in 2008, but it isn't a pitch he has ever used a ton - except when he fell in love with it during Game 3 of the World Series against the Yankees and it became his undoing. The point is that he is a fastball pitcher and it was the command of the fastball (and the changeup, for that matter) that was the most noticeable problem.

Still, there has been talk about the third pitch more than anything else. Whether he actually needs it now to make the other two pitches effective, or that it just needs to be there as valuable insurance, is debatable. But Manual clearly wants him to come up with some third alternative.

"Going into spring training, we will definitely, from my standpoint, get Cole in spring training to catch his curveball earlier and do more with it," Manuel said. "He can throw a curveball. Consistency is the biggest thing with it."

Manuel said he should have pushed Hamels more in the past to throw more curveballs. He said, "If he gets more consistent, he'll get lefthanded hitters out better. That will make his changeup and his fastball better when he comes inside. Lefthanded hitters have good success off him. That's one of the big things about his pitching. The big thing is he has to improve his curveball. It doesn't matter to me if it's his curveball or if he comes up with a slider."

It has only been a couple of months, but the struggles of 2009 do somehow seem longer ago than that. Maybe he will benefit physically from the quieter offseason. Maybe he will enjoy the cool of the shadow that Halladay casts. Hamels is still young enough and talented enough that all things really do seem possible as another season beckons.

Roy Halladay and his arrival as the staff ace are the headline.

Charlie Manuel and his new, trim self are the photograph.

Cole Hamels, though, will be the story of 2010.

(Either him or Cliff Lee.)

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