Manuel not saying who will follow Lee in Phillies' rotation for World Series
Manuel not saying who will follow Lee in Phillies' rotation for World Series
NEWS FLASH: Cliff Lee will start Game 1 of the World Series.
Manager Charlie Manuel stated the obvious yesterday, saying he will send the lefthander with the 0.74 postseason ERA to the mound on Wednesday when the Phillies meet the Yankees.
Beyond that, however, the rotation remains unsettled.
The last time the Phillies had the luxury of setting up all four spots of their rotation was the National League Division Series, when Lee started Game 1 and lefthander Cole Hamels started Game 2.
At the time, there was some thought that Manuel would tap Hamels to be the Game 1 starter, given his success last October, when he went 4-0 and allowed seven runs in 35 innings over five starts.
Three weeks later, at least for the time being, there is some question as to whether Manuel will even start Hamels in Game 2 of the World Series. Asked yesterday if there was any reason why Hamels wouldn't be on the mound Thursday, when he would be on 7 days' rest, Manuel responded, "I'm not ready to answer that yet."
There is some statistical evidence that suggests the Phillies would be better off starting righthander Pedro Martinez in Game 2 and pushing Hamels' start back to Game 3 on Saturday in Philadelphia. First and foremost is Hamels' track record this postseason, when he has allowed 11 runs, 20 hits and six home runs in just 14 2/3 innings. Last year, Hamels pitched at least six innings in all five of his postseason starts, finishing at least seven in four of them. This year, he hasn't completed six innings in any of his three starts, and has pitched into the sixth just once.
Martinez, meanwhile, tossed seven scoreless innings at Dodger Stadium in a loss to Los Angeles in Game 2 of the National League Championship Series, his lone start of the postseason.
Manuel has repeatedly expressed confidence in Hamels, saying he believes the lefthander has the potential to pitch a complete game every time he takes the mound. But even with that confidence, Manuel could decide to start Martinez in Game 2 in order to give the Phillies' rotation more balance, a philosophy that can be backed up quantitatively.
New York faced lefthanded starters in back-to-back games 13 times this season, and in three straight games four times. In those instances, when facing a lefty starter for the first time, the Yankees scored 72 runs while hitting .278 and drawing 49 walks. The second day, they scored 74 runs while hitting .303 and drawing 59 walks. And in the four times they played a third straight game against a lefty starter, they scored 26 runs while hitting .327 and drawing 23 walks.
Starting Lee and Hamels in Games 1 and 2 would not only give their opponent back-to-back games against lefty starters, it would open the possibility of throwing lefty starters in Games 4, 5 and 6, should Manuel elect to give rookie J.A. Happ the start in Game 4.
Part of Manuel's hesitancy in detailing his rotation lies in the fact that, when he spoke to the media yesterday, the Phillies still did not know who they would be facing. But both the Angels and Yankees fared better in games against lefty starters during the regular season: the Yankees went 36-18 (.667) against lefties and 67-41 (.620) against righties.
But there is an equally compelling argument for starting Hamels in Game 2. First, he is Cole Hamels. And while he hasn't looked like the Hamels who tore through the postseason last year, the Phillies do not believe he is a lost cause. In fact, they think that if he can put together a consistent outing without the location hiccups that have plagued him, he is more than capable of pitching a gem. He built that belief during a regular season that, despite his struggles, included some vintage performances. After allowing 17 runs in 21 1/3 innings in his first four starts of August, Hamels pitched eight scoreless innings against the Pirates. Five days after allowing six runs in six innings against the Nationals on May 30, he pitched a five-hit shutout against the Dodgers. And, of course, there was his start at Yankee Stadium on May 24, when he allowed two runs on eight hits in six innings of the Phillies' 4-3 win.
"I look at Hamels and I still feel like he's got the game in him. Baseball is a funny game," Manuel said Thursday. "Hamels is a good pitcher, and he's very capable of throwing a shutout every time he goes out there. Just because he loses some games and he gets hit, that's all part of the game."
Manuel offered few clues yesterday about which way he was leaning. Martinez, who yesterday threw 50 pitches against batters in two innings of a simulated game and an additional 15 before each inning, is 2-0 with a 1.88 ERA in five starts at Citizens Bank Park, compared with 3-1 and a 5.66 ERA in four starts on the road.
Whether his first World Series start comes in Game 2 on the road or Game 3 at home remains to be seen.
For more Phillies coverage and opinion, read David Murphy's blog, High Cheese, at http://go.philly.com/highcheese.















