Sam Donnellon: Believe it or not, Phillies doing fine

I see a lot of memory loss out there.

The Phillies were 39-35 heading into last night's game against Atlanta. A year ago, with better weather and a tighter schedule, they were 44-39. Five more wins, four more losses, and the similarity does not end there.

You see a team that can't seal the deal like they did last year, a team that seems to lose all the close games. But here are the numbers on that. In 2008, the Phillies entered July with a 13-16 record in one-run games and a 19-23 record in games decided by two runs or fewer. The Phillies entered this July with a 9-10 record in games decided by a run and an 18-13 record in games decided by two runs or more.

They had lost nine of 11 and 13 of 18 entering July of 2008. Here's the postseason media guide entry from their final game in June, a 5-1 loss to the lowly Rangers: "Despite losing six straight series, the Phillies were still in first in the NL East by a game over Florida."

The Phillies entered last night's game in Atlanta having lost five of their last six series but ahead by one game . . .

Over Florida.

You keep talking about injuries, and how healthy everyone was for all of last year. Hell, guys keep writing it, keep saying it on the radio too.

Hello? Anyone remember Adam Eaton? He was still taking his regular shift this time last year. Anyone remember that yesterday marked the 1-year anniversary of Brett Myers being furloughed to the minors? Remember what a basket case he was? Would you rather have that guy pitch every 5 days, or someone, anyone, else?

As human as Ryan Madson has been lately, does anyone remember that Tom Gordon was shelved at this point last year, about to be shut down for the rest of the season.

That sure seemed like a significant injury at the time!

OK, I'm sorry, I'm way over my exclamation mark quota for the season. But if one more guy writes/says/concludes how much healthier they were last year, how different this year is from last, I'm going to urge that we re-sign Eaton and promote Kyle Kendrick from the minors.

You remember Kendrick, right? He "came to the rescue" read some headlines last July 1, pitching six scoreless innings in an 8-3 victory over the Braves. At that point, the Phillies record when he started was 13-4.

Kendrick wasn't officially injured in the second half of the season just as Myers wasn't physically hurt in the first half. But the premise that the Phillies cruised to a championship last season with little of the problems that ail most teams is just such baloney, it boggles the mind every time someone purports it. Jimmy Rollins might have been hitting .267 at this time last year, but Ryan Howard was batting a not so lusty .218. I love Raul Ibanez as much as the next guy, but Pat Burrell was hitting .275 with 20 home runs at this point last season.

The Phillies are averaging slightly more runs scored this season, almost 5 1/2 a game. Their team earned run average is almost a run higher, and clearly that is a concern, really the concern. But it is reasonable to expect Madson to stabilize after an All-Star break rest, reasonable to expect Brad Lidge to be strong in the second half, albeit not infallible. It should be expected that J.C. Romero will be strong, as little used as he is up to this point.

Lidge blew six saves before he went on the disabled list. Madson may yet be a closer, but he assumed the job already over-taxed. On the whole, the bullpen hasn't pitched poorly. They've just played poor situational baseball. Madson's five-pitch walk the other night with two outs and no one on - in a one-run game - is just about concentration. The pickoff try was poorly executed, the 1-2 pitch to Martin Prado too hittable, the way his 0-2 was to Rod Barajas a few weeks before.

And Cole Hamels? He was 8-5 a year ago, with a 3.38 ERA. He had pitched seven innings or more in 14 of his 17 starts. After last night, he is 4-5, and his earned run average is about a run higher. He has pitched seven innings or more three times in 15 starts.

It is reasonable to assume this will change for the better. It is reasonable to assume that Ibanez will return sometime soon, and return to form sometime sooner after that. It is reasonable to assume that Rollins has at least one hot streak in him this season, and that with Lidge, Madson and Romero now healthy, the bullpen will stabilize and protect leads better than it has.

It's also reasonable to assume that J.A. Happ will have some bumps, that Antonio Bastardo will pitch like an inexperienced rookie, that Joe Blanton will win a few and lose a few. It's cause for concern, just as Myers, Kendrick and Eaton were at times last year. The Phillies overcame their share of nasty weather then, too, had more than a few bad moons before a 17-8 September, and 11-3 postseason run delivered a second world championship.

It is reasonable to still believe that can happen this season. *

Send e-mail to donnels@phillynews.com.

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