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Five questions to ponder in stage two of NL East race

HEADING INTO today's game against the Braves, the Phillies are 3-6 against National League East competition, losing one series to Washington and two to the Mets.

But with 15 of the next 29 games against division opponents, including six against Atlanta and six against first-place Florida, we should get a better idea of how this incarnation of the Phillies stacks up against their chief playoff rivals.

Manager Charlie Manuel, for one, isn't placing any extraordinary emphasis on this upcoming stretch of games.

"We're, what, 37 games in? We've got to play. We just play like we always do and try to win on that day," Manuel said. "If we don't get it done, we come out the next day and go through the same process. We get prepared and we've got to be ready to play and we concentrate on winning that day. That's been our M.O. now since last year."

Nonetheless, in a division that was decided by one game last season, every series has the opportunity to play a major factor in the final playoff chase.

Here are five questions to consider as the NL East race moves into stage two:

1 Are the Marlins for real?

Consider: Only three of the Marlins' 23 wins have come against teams that entered yesterday with a winning record. (The Phillies, Mets and Braves all have eight wins against winning teams.) Furthermore, they are 8-1 against the Nationals, meaning more than a quarter of their wins have come against a team that is tied for the second-worst record in the National League. Heading into yesterday, the Marlins had won seven straight, but those seven have come against three teams with a combined record of 47-66.

There's no doubt they can hit - heading into yesterday they were just one home run behind the Phillies for the National League lead - but their starting pitchers had combined for a 4.88 ERA, the fourth-worst mark in the NL.

2 Who are the real Atlanta Braves?

Atlanta's starting pitching staff leads the National League with a 3.49 ERA and a .238 opposing batting average. Their offense leads the NL in batting average (.284) and is third in on-base percentage (.352) and fourth in slugging (.437). But the Braves enter today's game at 19-18, nudging above .500 by winning the second-half of yesterday's doubleheader against the Pirates. The win also snapped the Braves' seven-game road losing streak, the fourth time they have lost three or more games this season. But they also have had winning streaks of six games and five games.

3 Can the Mets hit?

Their offensive numbers are hardly earth-shattering: 10th in the NL with 173 runs, 11th in batting average (.254), 12th in slugging (.391), 14th in home runs (26). So even though opponents are hitting .255 against them, they have been maddeningly inconsistent.

4 Might the National League MVP race be an NL East affair?

At the very least, there won't be a shortage of candidates to come from the division. Of the top 10 home-run hitters in the National League heading into yesterday, half came from the NL East. In terms of all-around performance, Braves third baseman Chipper Jones and Phillies second baseman Chase Utley could make a strong case for the best player in baseball this first quarter. The two rank second and third, respectively, in OPS and slugging. Utley leads the NL with 13 home runs; Jones is fourth with 10. While Utley has cooled off recently, he is still hitting .327. Jones, meanwhile, is hitting an astounding .406.

But you also have to take into consideration Phillies leftfielder Pat Burrell (tied for third in the NL with 31 RBI; sixth in OPS at 1.042) and Marlins shortstop Hanley Ramirez, who is putting up Jimmy Rollins-type numbers, hitting .336 with eight home runs and 21 RBI with 13 stolen bases.

5 What players have something to prove in the final three quarters of the season?

Braves pitcher John Smoltz is likely heading back to the bullpen when he comes off the disabled list, despite a 3-2 record and 2.00 ERA as a starter this season. Mets centerfielder Carlos Beltran (.240) and first baseman Carlos Delgado (.236) have combined for just eight home runs.

And, of course, Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard (.171, 54 strikeouts) will be looking to put his first-quarter struggles behind him. All four players are critical to their teams' playoff hopes. *

For more Phillies coverage and opinion, read David Murphy's blog, High Cheese, at http://go.philly.com/highcheese.

 

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