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But in the wake of an arbitrator's decision to award the Phillies first baseman a record $10 million, this much is certain: The bar has been raised.
With just 2 years and 145 days of major league service, Howard will earn more this season than any first-year arbitration-eligible player in the history of this process. The Phillies, who had sought to pay him $7 million, will have to acknowledge that value moving forward, particularly when it comes to negotiations for a long-term contract extension.
"He's making $10 million; he has 3 more years of arbitration," Howard's agent, Casey Close, said. "It's just a different starting point. How that affects future talks, I don't know."
In fact, nobody seems to know. And if they do, they won't admit it publicly.
Neither Close nor Howard would specify what it would take to sign the slugger to a long-term deal. When asked whether he would seek more money than Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols received when he signed a 7-year, $100 million contract in 2004, Howard brushed it off, saying, "I don't know what's going to happen."
Phillies assistant general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said questions about a possible extension were premature.
"I think [the ruling] is a little fresh in our minds right now," Amaro said. "We'll just worry about getting ready for the season and moving forward."
Howard, whose new salary is second only to the $14 million Pat Burrell will earn, didn't offer much in the way of concrete details when he met a swarm of media following yesterday's workout. The first baseman acknowledged that the ruling "feels really good," but wouldn't say how he might celebrate, or what his first big purchase might be. He called Wednesday's hearing at a downtown St. Petersburg hotel "an interesting process," but declined to discuss specifics of the meeting.
Asked whether he felt he would finish his career in Philadelphia, he responded, "It would be nice. It's one of those things we'll have to wait and see what happens."
During the offseason, the Phillies and Howard carefully avoided disclosing specifics of the negotiations, and that didn't change after the ruling.
Close and a team of about 10 employees began preparing for the case the day after the Phillies' season ended with a 2-1 loss to the Colorado Rockies in the first round of the National League playoffs. Howard's case was the fourth prepared by Close, who had won two of his first three. In 1999, Close represented Derek Jeter when he won $5 million from the Yankees. At that point, the award was tied for the second-largest in major league history, behind only Jack McDowell's $5.3 million in 1994.
"There were some similarities between the two in the sense that they were both sort of landmark deals in their time," Close said.
But the marketplace was different, as was the player in question. Howard has had an unprecedented start to his career, winning Rookie of the Year and MVP honors in his first two seasons with the Phillies. His production dipped last year, but he still hit .268 with 47 home runs and 136 RBI. The last two seasons, Howard has led the majors with averages of 52.5 home runs and 142.5 RBI.
"He's just a really difficult guy for anybody to compare themselves to," Close said.
Which is what made the case so interesting. The Phillies retained Houston Astros president Tal Smith, who has a reputation for building successful arbitration cases, to prepare and deliver their argument. Smith deferred comment to the Phillies yesterday, but 2 days ago indicated that an important part of the club's argument was Howard's relatively meager major league service.
When Florida's Miguel Cabrera was awarded $7.4 million last February, he had 3 years, 101 days of service. When Alfonso Soriano asked for $12 million from the Nationals in 2006, he had more than 5 years of service (the club won, paying him $10 million).
Moments after emerging from the hearing Wednesday, Smith called the issue of service time "a major portion of the criteria."
But yesterday's judgment sets a new precedent, both for Howard's salary structure and for future arbitration cases.
"As far as his value is concerned, it is now $10 million," Amaro said. "It is what it is, and we'll move forward from there."
According to Amaro, negotiations with Close continued right up to the start of the arbitration hearing, and that at one point the two sides thought they were close to a deal.
Neither side would say exactly how "close" they were.
The loss was the Phillies' first in eight arbitration cases. The last player to face arbitration with the club was Travis Lee in 2001.
"Our goal has always been to try to get deals done," Amaro said. "If we think the right number is there to get it done, we'll get it done."
After the meeting, Howard met with his agent for lunch at the hotel, during which the two talked about the process. Both Close and Amaro said they felt the meeting had been "professional" and that neither side harbored any ill will. Howard's father, Ron, was also at the arbitration hearing.
"I talk to my dad about things and he has a different aspect about things," Howard said. "I talk to my dad and we discuss different options."
Howard, of course, could face arbitration again. In fact, he won't become a free agent until after the 2011 season, meaning he could go through the process three more times.
Asked whether that is a prospect he has considered, Howard shrugged.
"Well, I guess we'll have to wait and see," he said. "I'm not Miss Cleo."
Righthander Kris Benson is continuing to make progress from 2006 rotator cuff surgery, though it is still too early to tell when he might pitch in a live game. The veteran starter, signed last week, will likely throw another bullpen session tomorrow . . . Righthander Scott Mathieson will start long-tossing in the next few days, continuing his recovery from elbow surgery. Manager Charlie Manuel said "it is going to be a while" before the pitcher throws in a game . . . Single-game tickets went on sale yesterday. Vice president of ticket sales John Weber estimated the Phillies have sold more than 250,000 single-game tickets thus far, including season tickets, which puts the team well ahead of last year's pace. *
Righthander is continuing to make progress from 2006 rotator cuff surgery, though it is still too early to tell when he might pitch in a live game. The veteran starter, signed last week, will likely throw another bullpen session tomorrow . . . Righthander will start long-tossing in the next few days, continuing his recovery from elbow surgery. Manager said "it is going to be a while" before the pitcher throws in a game . . . Single-game tickets went on sale yesterday. Vice president of ticket sales estimated the Phillies have sold more than 250,000 single-game tickets thus far, including season tickets, which puts the team well ahead of last year's pace. *For more Phillies coverage and opinion, read David Murphy's blog, High Cheese, at go.philly.com/highcheese
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