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Being in contention is only half the story

SEVERAL YEARS ago, Charlie Manuel ran an offseason baseball camp near his home in Winter Haven, Fla. One player who attended was a minor leaguer with a weak arm and an awkward hitting style. Few people who watched him then thought he had much of a future.

SEVERAL YEARS ago, Charlie Manuel ran an offseason baseball camp near his home in Winter Haven, Fla. One player who attended was a minor leaguer with a weak arm and an awkward hitting style. Few people who watched him then thought he had much of a future.

But David Eckstein has been the starting shortstop for two world championship teams, the 2002 Angels and the 2006 Cardinals.

"That comes from fight and desire and wanting to be good," Manuel pointed out.

The point is that pure talent doesn't always carry the day. And as the Phillies approach the midpoint of the season - the dividing line will be drawn after Saturday's game against the Mets - that's a useful reminder.

On paper, the Phillies haven't had the best talent in the National League East this season. Not with Freddy Garcia winning only once before going on the disabled list; closer Tom Gordon sidelined by a strained rotator cuff after nine appearances; Brett Myers shelved with a strained right shoulder; only four home runs from the third-base position; reigning NL MVP Ryan Howard missing time with a strained left quadriceps; leftfielder Pat Burrell seeing less and less playing time as his average slips toward .200; and a bullpen era (4.79) that entered yesterday fourth worst in the league.

Yet they have managed to stay in contention. The Phillies were off yesterday. Going into tonight's series opener against the Reds, they're 39-36, trailing the Mets by 3 1/2 games. Here's a look at how they've managed that . . . and what they need to do to stay in the race in the second half:

First half

Even the Phillies would have to acknowledge that, in part, they have been lucky. Going into Shea Stadium on June 5, they trailed the Mets by eight games. Had they been swept, they could have been buried.

Even the Phillies would have to acknowledge that, in part, they have been lucky. Going into Shea Stadium on June 5, they trailed the Mets by eight games. Had they been swept, they could have been buried.

To their credit, though, they won three straight. New York went on to lose 13 out of 16, allowing the Phillies to further close the gap. If the Mets had the same record they had last year at this time (46-28), the Phillies would be 7 1/2 games out.

The Phillies survived without Howard in the lineup because Greg Dobbs batted .390 with six RBI in 13 games while he was on the DL. Howard slumped early, but, since being activated May 25, he leads the NL in RBI (28) and is tied for fourth in homers (10).

They have hit with two outs and runners in scoring position. The Phillies lead the league in batting average (.275) and home runs (15) in those situations.

While they haven't always played great defense, they do have 29 outfield assists. They have a winning record despite being outscored, 389-382, for the season, and without those throws, the gap could be much larger.

And they've been resilient. They lead the league with 21 wins in games during which they trailed at some point. They also have come back to win eight of nine games after losing and giving up at least 10 runs.

Second half

Baseball is a what-have-you-done-lately sport, of course, and none of what the Phillies have done well to this point will matter in the games that lie ahead.

Baseball is a what-have-you-done-lately sport, of course, and none of what the Phillies have done well to this point will matter in the games that lie ahead.

This is also Manuel's 15th season as a manager. In every full season but one in which records are available (which doesn't include Wisconsin Rapids in 1983), his teams have had a better record after the All-Star break than before.

That can't be taken for granted either, of course, but it suggests that Manuel's opinion on what needs to be done the rest of the way is worth listening to. And sure enough, he has an idea of what he thinks is possible.

First, he's not expecting any white-knight trades to strengthen the pitching.

"I look at myself," he said. "I am what I am. I try to be realistic about things. I see how many teams need pitching and I know how hard it is to get. So that kind of tells you you're probably not going to find somebody who's lights out. There's no sense complaining about that."

Manuel would like to see back-of-the-bullpen relievers Myers and Gordon return, healthy and ready to pitch up to their capabilities. That would leave Antonio Alfonseca, Ryan Madson and Geoff Geary "and probably a lefty or two" for depth.

"That would help us shorten the games," he pointed out.

The other part of the equation is for Howard, second baseman Chase Utley and shortstop Jimmy Rollins to carry the offense the way they did in the second half last year.

Before the All-Star break last year, Rollins batted .259 with 31 RBI. After: .298 and 52.

Before the All-Star break last year, Utley batted .312 with 53 RBI. After: .304 and 49.

Before the All-Star break last year, Howard batted .278 with 71 RBI. After: .355 and 78.

"In the regular season, offense can show up big," Manuel said. "The team that's richest in pitching usually wins in the playoffs, and if we get there, we'll only need three main starters. But if you look at it, those are the guys who really came through when we got hot last year."

That's not the way the pitching-and-defense blueprint is drawn up in the National League, but you have to play the hand you're dealt.

"It's a little unconventional," Manuel conceded. "But if we get Myers and Gordon back and cut the game to six, or even five, innings and score some runs, we'll see what happens. Because I think every team in our division has some weaknesses."

Including the Phillies. But sometimes the best team - on paper - doesn't win.

Phillers

Jon Lieber (ruptured tendon in right foot) was examined in Philadelphia by team doctor Michael Ciccotti yesterday and given two options. He could have season-ending surgery or try to rehab the injury. Lieber will seek a precautionary second opinion . . . J.D. Durbin, whose contract was purchased from Triple A Ottawa, will start the first game of Friday's day-night doubleheader against the Mets at Citizens Bank Park . . . Chase Utley continued to lead NL second baseman in the final All-Star balloting update announced yesterday. *

(ruptured tendon in right foot) was examined in Philadelphia by team doctor yesterday and given two options. He could have season-ending surgery or try to rehab the injury. Lieber will seek a precautionary second opinion . . . , whose contract was purchased from Triple A Ottawa, will start the first game of Friday's day-night doubleheader against the Mets at Citizens Bank Park . . . continued to lead NL second baseman in the final All-Star balloting update announced yesterday. *