Why the Phillies probably won't sign Josh Hamilton, and why that probably is a good thing
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Why the Phillies probably won't sign Josh Hamilton, and why that probably is a good thing
David Murphy
We'll start with the caveats. The Phillies could have far more cash at their disposal than they are letting on. They could have an ownership group that is willing to risk four or five years on Josh Hamilton. They could be trigger-happy. Or the Rangers could just be claiming interest in retaining Hamilton out of politeness. But absent a significant extenuating circumstance, I simply cannot envision a scenario in which Hamilton signing with the Phillies makes sense.
Yesterday, Sports Radio 610 WIP reported that the Phillies have made the free agent slugger a three-year, $80 million offer. I have no reason to doubt the veracity of that information. In fact, it makes perfect sense.
What doesn't make sense is why the Rangers would not match that offer. The conventional wisdom at the winter meetings last week was that both sides would like their partnership to continue. Early in the free agent signing period, various national reports cited anonymous sources saying that Hamilton was looking for a contract of six or seven years, which led to the speculation that the Rangers might wave goodbye to their star slugger. But if Hamilton's best offer really is for three years at about $27 million per year, and if the Rangers really do want to retain him, then I have to think that they will.
My sense is that the Phillies made their best offer and put it on the table just in case the Rangers really have decided to move on from the player who helped turn their franchise around. Maybe this really does turn out to be the start of a negotiation, but it would require a huge risk on the Phillies part.
Here's why:
The Phillies know that the window for winning a World Series with this current crop of players is no longer than three years. Even with a player like Hamilton, it might only be two years. Between the money they saved last season, the new national television money they will receive, the increase in the luxury tax threshold next season, and the potential of a new local television deal within the next few years, the Phillies have money to spend.
So why not engage in bidding war for Hamilton? To me, 2016 is the key year. That would be the fourth year of any Hamilton deal. It's also the last year of Ryan Howard's contract. They'll be on the hook for $25 million in salary. Howard will be 36 years old. Hamilton will be 35 years old. Plenty of players have remained productive through those ages. But plenty have broken down. And what happens if both players' production suffers a significant drop off between now and then? You can certainly envision a situation in which the Phillies are paying $50 million to two broken down players. And that would be an excellent way to undermine whatever new core of players the Phillies have developed by that point in time.
The worst case scenario is for them to develop a new batch of players and then look at their payroll and say, "Gee, if only we had $50 million to spend on a couple of pieces that we think can push us over the top." Actually, the worst case scenario would involve a Cole Hamels breakdown too, leaving them with $73 million in dead money.
A three-year deal would make sense because the Phillies are built to win now. And if signing Josh Hamilton doesn't result in a World Series, well, they probably weren't going to win one anyway. But in a multi-year deal, every extra year carries with it the risk of disrupting the next window of contention. Which is why I think three years is likely the maximum the Phillies would go. And I'm not convinced that three years will get it done.
But again, I could be missing something.
Hamilton would be awesome here in a hitter's park like in Arlington. He did fall of the wagon a few times in Texas, but if he stays healthy, he is the best player in baseball and would be an MVP candidate for the Phils. And yeah, you'd magically see Howard's numbers rise. I hope the Phils can get this done.— echosmyron- whoever wrote this article is an idiot. To not think Hamilton will elevate the Phillies to their former prominence is a fool! To the author, save your breath for your inflatable date!— DobieGillis
- Yes, Hamilton is a gremlin and requires instructions but come September, ESPN is always reporting his ridiculous HRs and RBIs. Please sign this guy tonight, RAJ!!!!!— boom dynamite
- Phillies are a third place team without Hamilton. They have no shot against Nats and Braves with this lineup...— Napa818
- @ghostofcallison and @adavantasux --just saw your posts --of course I have no issue with siging Hamilton -- although he's a risk he's currently one of the best hitters in baseball..obviously anyone with half a brain (other than Clueless rube and his sidekick the self-described "dope") knows you improve your team by getting elite players.not by trading for a singles hitting center-fielder, an over-the-hill former 3rd baseman and filling the rest of your roster wiht bargain basement trash .. and just to explain to the self-described "Dope" the problem with giving Howard $125 million in 2010, 2 yrs before his contract was to expire, is because nobody in the entire country of baeball men or analysts (other than the Clueless rube and his "dope" sidekicK) would have made such an absurd deal for such a declining shallow one-dimensional aging former slugger because, NEWS ALERT, howard ain't Pujols or Fielder or Cabrera or Hamilton or Schmidt or any other elite player --he's a fairly annoying should-be platooning d.h. not much better (if at all) to Adam Dunn or Carlos Pena (YES "Dopey" Pena who has comparable on base pctge)— warbiscuit
- Lol so dopey tool had issue with signing Howard who prior to signing had put up monster power numbers but has no issue with signing Hamilton, now watch if we sign him and he gets hurt, dopey idiot will start screaming about wasting money on a broken down free agent caus that what tooly does. Hey moronic dopey tool who would you have signed to play centerfield, come on dazzle us el dopey one? Idiot wants elite players at every position, clueless moronic tool. You complain about signing Howard early, think the Cards or Brewers wish they did the same dopey moronic idiot tool — DogBiscuitthedope
- you are high. Howard's number up until last season were always better than Fielder's. Howard's a solid player. He's not exactly fragile. until last season, he led the team in games played. He was a rock. The guy carried the team several second halfs of the season. Instead of hoping for declining abilities, why don't you wish him good health and hope he comes back strong and puts up big numbers again. you didn't think Jimmy would play as well as he did last year, but he did.
- warbiscuit: You have to stop worrying about what this delusional nut case (dog dope) has to say. After reading his infitesimal diatribes against anything you post, "he" sounds like a former jilted lover you may have had in your past. They can be really catty and dopey boy fits the mold to a "T". Just ignore the ignoramus. I would bet most everybody else does. So, treat dopey boy like any other delusional, spiteful EX you may have had in the past. He sure as h*ll is acting like one.
- but generally Cluless Rube has NOT improved team by signing quality free agents.. indeed the ONLY quality free agent Rube has EVER signed is Lee --and that was to try to rectify his egregious mistake in giving him away for peanuts in the first place, and was instigated by Lee's wife, not by Rube (and NO Papelbum was not an elite free agent signing but an abject waste of $50 million that could have been used in countless better ways by a g.m. wiht a brain)... indeed Cluless Rube continues same stupidity of losing prospects to cover for failure to do job in first place.. so Phils now talking about trading prospects for Cuddyer (but may not have anyone left to trade), but if they had half a brain why didn't they sign Cuddyer last year in the first place?...Phils traded 3 top prospects to get Oswalt when they were a starter short, so why did they trade away Lee in the off-season in first plade?...Phils traded 4 top propsects to get Pence, so why didn't they sign one of the many outfielders available in the off-season after losing Werth in the 1st place? ...Phils found cost of middle relievers too expensive last summer to save their season last year; why didn't they sign one of the many decent relievers available in the off-season in the first place (other than Willis and Qualls)? ...Phils now go trade for a middling outfielder, so why did they trade away Pence in the first place (for basically nothing)? it goes on and on... buy high sell low, and lose all your talent in the process...— warbiscuit
- Funny that posters are talking about Cuddyer. Rube-the-Boob could have had him for nothing as a free agent but opted for Thome, Wigginton and Nix. Those things have killed this organization. He is not good at evaluating talent. He has mortgaged the future - but not for good, star-quality players. It's the worst of both worlds. Loads of prospects gone and nothing but slop in return (like Pence and Oswalt). They are in this position because they have the wrong guy at the top of the baseball pecking order. Smug Ruben has DESTROYED the championship team he inherited.— Copper34
- Moron alert — DogBiscuitthedope
- Josh Hamilton looks a lot more attractive to the Philadelphia fans than he does to the Rangers fans.It is hard to tell how both clubs management feel about him and his worth.
You may remember Hamilton cost them the division title by dropping a routine fly ball. They were forced into a one game playoff for a wild card spot which they promptly lost. The Rangers fans were really down on Hamilton and they were split on whether they wanted him back or not. This was the second year in a row that one of their stars cost them ( Cruz's drop cost them the World Series last year ). The team has never been a great defensive team but they have been winning with a good offense. They play in very, very friendly hitters park. I would not want to count on Hamilton hitting as many home runs in the National League as he has hit in Arlington. Add average defensive ability by Hamilton and you may be sowing the seeds of failure for him in a Phillies uniform. Add to the fact that he is a lefthanded batter, it makes him less attractive to this team.
Like Murphy, I don't see Hamilton coming here. I don't see him going back to Texas either. Should Hamilton fail to get the big contract, Bourn may also become more affordable.
Maybe our boy Victorino made out by signing early !
— candidly - ouch! warbiscuit and Coppe34 are painfully correct, so sad!— DobieGillis
- ouch! warbiscuit and Coppe34 are painfully correct, so sad!— DobieGillis
- in the "World According to Rube" he understands there to be just maybe 3 types of players in the world and the Clueless one gets very confused about where players fit in his shallow world:
1. there are grade A superstars that Rube thinks are "can't miss", and he's willing to pay any price, and mortgage the future to get them, without regard to their age and whether they're really so good...think: Halladay, Howard, Oswalt, and Paplebon...problem is that rube's evaluations are flawed and they generally aren't that good (Howard, Pence and Oswalt) and even if they are elite (Halladay) their shelf life may be short (only 2 good years of Hallday for $80 mil and 3 top prospects including a future All-Star catcher, D'arnaud)...Clueless One first thought Lee wasn't in this category so he gave him away for peanuts, then when he was castigated doe this, he went and overspent for him too -- but too late since he already lost out on Lee's brilliant 2010 season
2. level 2 players in his shallow "World" are former "names" who he thinks must be good -- but they're generally over-the-hill and not worth it == think Ibanez, Polanco, Young
3 then he basically just lumps all other players together as a crapshoot in which he has no idea who's good and who isn't so he just gets whatever junk is out there for the cheap price he wants to pay: think Baez, Wigginton, Qualls, Herndon, Nix, etc
how does this differ from the other 29 g.m.s? they have a better idea how to evaluate players' many strenghts and weaknesses, their own team needs and don't just allocate everything to a few good players (or fomer "names") wiht the rest of the roster useless trash— warbiscuit
