After two trades, Phillies still lacking power
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After two trades, Phillies still lacking power
Matt Gelb
He filled two holes in a lineup with many, so naturally, the question for Ruben Amaro Jr. was, "What else?"
Ben Revere and Michael Young certainly fill needs. How well, no one is sure. But that duo combined for eight home runs in 2012 and did not regularly hit for extra bases.
"We'd love to add more home runs," Amaro said. "But for me, again, it's about production. If we can produce runs – and I know that Ben can and I know that Michael can – and we have to get production out of the middle of our lineup. The guys we've paid to produce those runs. If we can get complementary [production] from Ben and Michael and get the kind of production we expect out of Ryan [Howard] and Chase [Utley], I think we're going to be fine."
Still, the overwhelming feeling is the Phillies are far from done. Not with the myriad questions in their outfield and a bounty of money to be spent.
Here is the 2012 Phillies' power production broken down by position with National League ranks in parentheses:
| POS | HR | SLG |
| C | 24 (3d) | .497 (1st) |
| 1B | 27 (4th) | .415 (11th) |
| 2B | 17 (5th) | .411 (2d) |
| 3B | 5 (16th) | .357 (15th) |
| SS | 23 (3d) | .413 (6th) |
| LF | 13 (11th) | .420 (10th) |
| CF | 16 (7th) | .412 (8th) |
| RF | 23 (7th) | .411 (11th) |
What is most interesting are the low ranks in slugging percentage at first base, third base, left field and right field. The corners are where power hitters traditionally reside. Up the middle, the Phillies were about as strong as possible.
The Phillies subtract this:
Shane Victorino: 9 HR, .401 SLG (431 PA)
Hunter Pence: 17 HR, .447 SLG (440 PA)
Placido Polanco: 2 HR, .327 SLG (328 PA)
Ty Wigginton: 11 HR, .375 SLG (360 PA)
Juan Pierre: 1 HR, .371 SLG (439 PA)
Jim Thome: 5 HR, .516 SLG (71 PA)
And what they've added, so far:
Ben Revere: 0 HR, .342 SLG (553 PA)
Michael Young: 8 HR, .370 SLG (651 PA)
The numbers from Carlos Ruiz and Erik Kratz were among the league's best. And, again, it's difficult to assume a repeat performance. Ruiz will miss the first 25 games due to suspension. He produced career-high figures in nearly every offensive category. Kratz wore down late in the season and still has plenty to prove.
Yes, there should be better production from first base in 2013. Remember, though, Howard's slugging percentage has declined in each of the last four seasons. There were red flags before the Achilles injury. Still, he did not play at 100 percent strength last season and the dip in slugging was was 65 points from 2011. There should be some normalization there.
Second base is a crapshoot, and that needs no further explanation.
It's difficult to do worse offensively at third base than the Phillies did in 2012. But notice that Young's numbers from 2012 do not represent a massive upgrade there. That is, unless Young recaptures his power stroke from seasons before.
Jimmy Rollins was one of the most productive shortstops in terms of power last season. He hit his most home runs (23) since 2009 and posted his highest slugging percentage since 2008. The Phillies will need a repeat performance.
The outfield was already in the bottom half of the league in slugging percentage even with four months of Victorino and Pence. Revere has never hit a major-league home run and has a career .323 slugging percentage. So assume centerfield will be near the bottom of the league in both categories for 2013.
And that leaves us with the holes in left and right field. They are the only positions where Amaro can seek an upgrade, and are traditionally power spots in a lineup. Take three available free agents for example:
THREE-YEAR AVERAGES (2010-12)
Josh Hamilton: 33 HR, .583 SLG (582 PA)
Nick Swisher: 25 HR, .478 SLG (631 PA)
Cody Ross: 17 HR, .434 SLG (519 PA)
The Phillies figure to sign one of the aforementioned. They have approximately $20 million (in average annual value) of payroll to spend. They have already traded away four chips from a deep pitching stable. Now it's time to spend money.
They have long been connected to Ross, the demon from October 2010. (Remember that time the Giants barely won a waiver claim?) They are not said to fancy Swisher, perhaps because of his price. That could change.
Hamilton is the white whale. He is seeking a long-term deal out of the Phillies range, but those demands could lower given the lack of a market for the enigmatic slugger. Amaro briefly showed what he thinks of Hamilton last week. With their payroll flexibility, the Phillies could offer Hamilton a short-term, high-value contract.
It fits Amaro's penchant for a big splash. Hamilton's agent, Michael Moye, is among the most private in the business. His client may not be the ideal target, but there is most definitely a fit.
No, the Phillies do not need home runs to win. They need production, as Amaro terms it, and even after two trades it is still lacking.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
Hope Young is not the second coming of David Bell!— mk- I've given up on Ruben Amaro Jr. as our GM.
He sucks at making trades, always giving up to much talent.— RayWes - Counting on Utley (bless his heart) and Howard is exactly what got the Phillies their .500 season. He'd better have a better plan and depth this time around or it will be more of the same or worse.— PhillySubsMac
- @Parkwood - Young batting 4th? Utley leadoff? Revere 8th? You're kidding right??— BleedPhilly
- As of now our OF consists of Ruf, Revere, Brown, JMJ, and Nix. That has to be the WORST outfield in the history of MLB.— BleedPhilly
- you obviously weren't around when the phils were sticking gregg jefferies in left field.
- Well, hey, they were 16th in the NL in homeruns at third base last year. With the Astros move to the AL, they automatically will move up to at least 15th. So there is automatic improvement :).— tj22phils
- If you don't think they're "relevant," why bother to write anything?— dwp66
- There will never be another opportunity to land Headley, Adams, and Greinke. Just do it. Pay the freakin' luxury tax and put a WS Winner on the field every night.— Seegs
- Brown should not be considered a sure thing in the outfield. He's hardly earned it. Get Hamilton since you can't depend on power from anyone else in the lineup. No, Ruf hasn't earned a spot either, and Howard is a still a big "if."— Boru
- I don't hold out a whole lot of hope for the Phillies; outside of the big free agency pitchers, Amaro is less than impressive with the position players he gets. Anytime a team is willing to pay most of someone's salary, it is a cinch you are not getting the next Lou Gehrig. This team has steadily declined since he became GM and I don't think Young and Revere will make that much of a difference.— Marie Elena
- Like it or not, the 2013 season comes down to having Utley, Howard and Halladay healthy and having Utley and Howard each playing 140 or more games and 30-35 starts for Halladay. If that doesn't happen, then the Phillies will be a third place club again. After 2013, there is some money coming off the books (Utley, Halladay, etc) and at that time they will be in a position to bring up young kids and if need be add some free agents.
The Phillies need to start making the transition from the older core to the next wave of talent. This means letting the young pitchers get some seasoning in the bullpen, maybe bringing up Pettibone or someone similar to be the 5th starter this year, letting Young and Utley go after this season and having Asche and maybe Hernandez taking their place at 3rd and 2nd respectively.
I think Hamilton is too risky, and I am not a fan of losing our draft pick for Swisher. Ross might be a good pickup to play right and then let Ruf play left with Mayberry and Nix on the bench. Other than that and maybe picking up an 8th inning guy, I wouldn't do much more.— sjuhawk416 - Next season should begin the era of the platoon Phillies. The Platoon positions are RF, 3B, 2B, 1B and C. The corresponding position mannings are: Brown/Ross; Frandsen/Fields;Utley/Young;Howard/Young; and Ruiz/Kratz. The everyday players are Ruf in LF, Revere in CF, and Rollins at SS. This gives Charlie some power options at each platoon position, provides alternatives for the Utley/Howard health issues, and complements the same- handed batting issues with Ross and Howard. Fields make the team because of the power issues at 3B and probable non-performance of Young.— fafink
- Good grief Gelb, I knoew Brookover got stupid on a regular basis but I held out hope for you. Alas, a forlorn hope.
How about power from Howard, Rollins, Chooch, Utley, and Darin Ruf?
And then there is this little secret, that those of us that have follwoed the Phils for decades...when the Phils run, they win.
Hope you can write a legitimate article now.— ngfs66 - the question is would Hamilton fit on this team? with all the veterans(Howard, Hamels, Lee) already locked up for a few years, I think Hamilton would fit. No matter what, both Brown and Ruf will not be ready to be productive full time starters for at least 1 year(best case scenario). perhaps they can get him without giving a no trade and be able to trade later. the quality of his bat is necessary if we are not going to squander our quality arms. why did we sign three 20million$ pitchers if we are not going to support them with our bats? i certainly hope ruben didn't mean it when he said he is counting on Utley to hit for power. the window is closing on the World Series and it will close completely if utley is being counted on as being a power bat. either sign hamilton and go for broke for blow it up and trade Lee for ellsbury.— high water
