After two trades, Phillies still lacking power
He filled two holes in a lineup with many, so naturally, the question for Ruben Amaro Jr. was, "What else?"
After two trades, Phillies still lacking power
Matt Gelb
He filled two holes in a lineup with many, so naturally, the question for Ruben Amaro Jr. was, "What else?"
Ben Revere and Michael Young certainly fill needs. How well, no one is sure. But that duo combined for eight home runs in 2012 and did not regularly hit for extra bases.
"We'd love to add more home runs," Amaro said. "But for me, again, it's about production. If we can produce runs – and I know that Ben can and I know that Michael can – and we have to get production out of the middle of our lineup. The guys we've paid to produce those runs. If we can get complementary [production] from Ben and Michael and get the kind of production we expect out of Ryan [Howard] and Chase [Utley], I think we're going to be fine."
Still, the overwhelming feeling is the Phillies are far from done. Not with the myriad questions in their outfield and a bounty of money to be spent.
Here is the 2012 Phillies' power production broken down by position with National League ranks in parentheses:
| POS | HR | SLG |
| C | 24 (3d) | .497 (1st) |
| 1B | 27 (4th) | .415 (11th) |
| 2B | 17 (5th) | .411 (2d) |
| 3B | 5 (16th) | .357 (15th) |
| SS | 23 (3d) | .413 (6th) |
| LF | 13 (11th) | .420 (10th) |
| CF | 16 (7th) | .412 (8th) |
| RF | 23 (7th) | .411 (11th) |
What is most interesting are the low ranks in slugging percentage at first base, third base, left field and right field. The corners are where power hitters traditionally reside. Up the middle, the Phillies were about as strong as possible.
The Phillies subtract this:
Shane Victorino: 9 HR, .401 SLG (431 PA)
Hunter Pence: 17 HR, .447 SLG (440 PA)
Placido Polanco: 2 HR, .327 SLG (328 PA)
Ty Wigginton: 11 HR, .375 SLG (360 PA)
Juan Pierre: 1 HR, .371 SLG (439 PA)
Jim Thome: 5 HR, .516 SLG (71 PA)
And what they've added, so far:
Ben Revere: 0 HR, .342 SLG (553 PA)
Michael Young: 8 HR, .370 SLG (651 PA)
The numbers from Carlos Ruiz and Erik Kratz were among the league's best. And, again, it's difficult to assume a repeat performance. Ruiz will miss the first 25 games due to suspension. He produced career-high figures in nearly every offensive category. Kratz wore down late in the season and still has plenty to prove.
Yes, there should be better production from first base in 2013. Remember, though, Howard's slugging percentage has declined in each of the last four seasons. There were red flags before the Achilles injury. Still, he did not play at 100 percent strength last season and the dip in slugging was was 65 points from 2011. There should be some normalization there.
Second base is a crapshoot, and that needs no further explanation.
It's difficult to do worse offensively at third base than the Phillies did in 2012. But notice that Young's numbers from 2012 do not represent a massive upgrade there. That is, unless Young recaptures his power stroke from seasons before.
Jimmy Rollins was one of the most productive shortstops in terms of power last season. He hit his most home runs (23) since 2009 and posted his highest slugging percentage since 2008. The Phillies will need a repeat performance.
The outfield was already in the bottom half of the league in slugging percentage even with four months of Victorino and Pence. Revere has never hit a major-league home run and has a career .323 slugging percentage. So assume centerfield will be near the bottom of the league in both categories for 2013.
And that leaves us with the holes in left and right field. They are the only positions where Amaro can seek an upgrade, and are traditionally power spots in a lineup. Take three available free agents for example:
THREE-YEAR AVERAGES (2010-12)
Josh Hamilton: 33 HR, .583 SLG (582 PA)
Nick Swisher: 25 HR, .478 SLG (631 PA)
Cody Ross: 17 HR, .434 SLG (519 PA)
The Phillies figure to sign one of the aforementioned. They have approximately $20 million (in average annual value) of payroll to spend. They have already traded away four chips from a deep pitching stable. Now it's time to spend money.
They have long been connected to Ross, the demon from October 2010. (Remember that time the Giants barely won a waiver claim?) They are not said to fancy Swisher, perhaps because of his price. That could change.
Hamilton is the white whale. He is seeking a long-term deal out of the Phillies range, but those demands could lower given the lack of a market for the enigmatic slugger. Amaro briefly showed what he thinks of Hamilton last week. With their payroll flexibility, the Phillies could offer Hamilton a short-term, high-value contract.
It fits Amaro's penchant for a big splash. Hamilton's agent, Michael Moye, is among the most private in the business. His client may not be the ideal target, but there is most definitely a fit.
No, the Phillies do not need home runs to win. They need production, as Amaro terms it, and even after two trades it is still lacking.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
This has turned into Fantasy League jibberish now.....I'm laughing so hard at some of the comments here...and those wacky commenters having lost their faith in a paid lifetime professional GM with more knowledge in his little finger than the whole lot of you toddlers put together (except for you dwp!) You and I know what we're talking about!— Mark1npt- no one really cares if you're laughing at their baseball talk. don't know why you felt compelled to share that.
- Any move other then Hamilton is like putting makeup on an ugly girl make her look ok but she ain't winning a beauty pageant or in their case world series they just hope they sell enough tickets and sell more merchandise! The support is there make the move Rube.— zbeachigo
- Ruben Amaro Jr is consistently quoted with optimistic what if's every off season. Perhaps that's related to why they have been on a steady decline the past 4 years.— TrollXterminator
- as expressed here before, i am a proponent of billy beane's understanding of the game. the term 'small ball' does NOT define his philosophy; what does is OBP. that is the most important stat in beane's lexicon, and i wholly support it. home runs often are rally killers. combine high OBP with the kind of pitching we got from lee last year and you can believe he'd have won a hell of a lot more than six games, and we'd have won a hell of a lot more than 81.— bubba church & granny hamner
- the so-called "paid lifetime professional GM with more knowledge in his little finger" (sic) did the following 3 dozen imbecilic moves/nom-moves over the past 4 yrs, turning a championship team into a bad one with one of the highest budgets in baseball:
1. signed an over-the-hill Ibanez for 3 yrs, $36 mil, 2. re-signed Moyer 2 yrs, 3. re-siged Bruntlett, 4. traded valuable catcher for Jack Tashner, 5.did nothing to improve Phls bullpen in 2009 thus relying on a closer with an era over 7.0, 6. relied on an aged Pedro to be no. 2 starter in 2009 post-season, costing Phils World Series, 7. traded away Cliff Lee for peanuts, 8. traded away 3 top prospects for Halladay when could have kept Lee for same price, 9. signed Blanton to inexplicable $24 mil extension, 10. signed useless over-the-hill non-hitting Polanco (3 yrs, $18 mil wasted --no offense at 3rd base for 3 yrs), 11. signed Baez (2 yrs), 12. acquired Herndon and kept him on roster for all of 2010 so as not to "lose" him, 13. signed Schneider to 2 yr deal, then re-signed him, 14. failed to add a starter after losing Lee for peanuts thus requiring loss of 3 prospects to acquire Oswalt who provided only a half-season of half-decent pitching, 15. signed Gload and other worthless bench garbage, 16. gave Howard a $125 million extension almost 2 years before his current contract was due to expire--the single worst overpriced extension in baseball history, 17. did nothing to improve worst bench in baseball in 2010, 18. did nothing to assist fading offense in 2010, thus costing Phils chances in 2010 post-season, 19. did nothing to replace Werth after 2010 thus having to trade 3 future stars in July to acquire an outfielder, 20. went into 2011 post-season with still suspect offense and bench, costing Phils chance in 2011, (that's just 2009-2011 so far)...— warbiscuit - wow, that's a pretty horrible list. i still think you're hatin' on Howard. except for last year(injured, you can debate whether he should have been playing in playoffs with bad limp) ryan has hit for us. 130 rbi's a year is pretty darn good and I'm hoping he returns to form.
- you mean to tell me wiggy isn't coming back? I'm movin to chicagoland— stoky
- Warbiscuit is the guy at the office who just complains all day without offering a solution.
4 years of RAJ as GM - finished 1st,1st,1st,3rd.
All of the moves were made to try to win a World Series in the window with Utley/Rollins/Howard core in their prime.
You just bash moves without acknowledging good ones as well. Who cares if they miss on Willis and Qualls, etc. They didnt give them $$$ anyhow. Low risk chances.
Jimmy Rollins put up great numbers last year and you bash his signing too? What would a free agent get with JRolls numbers? 23 hr's, 68 rbi, 30 steals, 102 runs? Hell Scutoro got 8 mill per and JRoll is signed at 11 per? Stephen Drew is getting 10 mill per. Look at the relative moves around baseball.
i'm going to enjoy the Phillies this year as always, and hope these moves work out. maybe we get hamilton or another bat before the year starts too...
Warbiscuit - lighten up bud. Life is Good.— cdedrick05 - Eagles, Phils, Sixers...Vick, Howard, Bynum...Reid, Amaro, Collins.. how about them and their franchise building abilities? Duds all three!— fafink
- further Amaro awful moves/non-moves 2011-2012:
21. kept Mike Martinez, 22. did nothing to replace Howard's lost production at 1b for 2011, 23. did nothing to replace Utley's lost production at 2b, 24. did nothing to replace Polanco's non-existent offense at 3b, 25. signed closer Papelbum for absurd ridiculous price that could have acquired legitimate offense (Ramirez, Beltran, many other options) or more depth in bullpen, 26. wasted $50 mil on a closer who blows big games for past several years and is awful in big spots; 27. signed over-the-hill d.h. Thome for NL team with no DH, 28. did nothing to add a lefty reliever other than sign a consistently awful Willis, 29. did nothing else to help bullpen other than awful Qualls, 30. acquired Wigginton, 31. acquired Nix, 32. let Moss go for nothing, 32. let Grilli go for nothing, 33. let Vogelsong go for nothing, 34. traded Pence away for nothign, 35. traded Victornio for nothing, 36. traded Blanton for nothing, 37. did nothing to strengthen 2013 outfield other than a slap hitter in cf, 38. did nothing to strengthen 3rd base except an over-the-hill awful fielding Young, 39 kept Manuel as manager, etc.... I could go on, and every day that Rube is g.m. there will be many more to add
— warbiscuit - list of clear good moves by Rube in 4 years:
1. acquired Lee from Cleveland
2. signed Hamels to long-term contract so as to not lose him...
that's 2 good moves vs. over 40 bad ones that I listed above;
Phils are currently a mediocre to bad team with no present or future ..that's Rube's legacy .... he has demonstrated he is an unqualified failure who has shown he had no ability to put together a top-level team able to win in the post-season, that he has no ability to evaluate players and now has as much chance of rebuilding an aging bad team as he does of winning a lottery— warbiscuit - 40. did not foresee Sandy and protect NJ beaches
41. did not plan for the 2004 Tsunami
42. caused the 2008 global recession
— schmenkman - 1)Agree with those who believe the real key issues are the health and productivity of Utley, Halladay and Howard.
2)Aside from being a LH hitter, I think Hamilton might wilt in an intense baseball town like Philly. His 2012 late season swoon and personal stuff spooks me. Some "fans" can be merciless about that kind of thing.
3)Give Ruf a shot in the OF; he couldn't do worse than Ben Fransisco did last year, could he?
4) RAJ still needs to work on the rotation and bullpen; hopefully he hasn't forgotten those tasks.— ijj - bottom line re Rube's "legacy": Phils are now irrelevant nobodies -- 15 teams had better record last year, and Phils have even less talent then they had last year; Revere and Young are current nobodies, as is their entire 40 man roster which has perhaps 2 above-avg players, Hamels and Lee, with everything else about them reeking of mediocrity or worse....be lucky to get to .500 this year...current "Power rankings" and Vegas odds all list at least a dozen teams with better odds than this over-the-hill mediocre bunch of dreck— warbiscuit
