To protect or not to protect
Another milepost of baseball's winter hits at 11:59 p.m. Tuesday, the moment when 40-man rosters must be set in advance of the ever-thrilling Rule 5 draft. There will be a flurry of roster moves in the next two days as teams decide which players are worth protecting.
To protect or not to protect
Matt Gelb
Another milepost of baseball's winter hits at 11:59 p.m. Tuesday, the moment when 40-man rosters must be set in advance of the ever-thrilling Rule 5 draft. There will be a flurry of roster moves in the next two days as teams decide which players are worth protecting.
Not everyone is eligible for selection in Rule 5 draft, which takes place Dec. 6. Eligibility is dependent on a player's age when he was signed. The general guideline: If 19 or older when signed, you must be protected after four years. If 18 or younger, protection is required after five years of service time.
The Phillies currently have 34 players on their 40-man roster. It's unlikely they fill all six spots with minor leaguers. Last winter, they lost righty Lendy Castillo to the Cubs in the Rule 5 draft. Castillo is now property of Chicago after spending the entire 2012 season on the active major-league roster.
Protecting players is not always about pure talent; teams also must consider how likely it is Player X is selected in the Rule 5 draft.
And now, the candidates (April 2013 age in parenthesis):
SURE BETS
RHP Trevor May (23) — He entered 2012 rated as the organization's top prospect by many and stumbled to a 4.87 ERA with 22 home runs allowed and a sharp decline in strikeout numbers. Nonetheless, May remains one of the top pitching talents because of his stuff. It'll be interesting to see whether he repeats double A or jumps to triple A in April.
RHP Jonathan Pettibone (22) — The jump to the Eastern League was fruitful for Pettibone, a former third-round pick never described as flashy. He maintained his strikeout rate (albeit it low) and even showed enough to warrant a late-season tryout in triple A. He succeeded there, too. Pettibone has made at least 23 starts in three straight seasons.
RHP Ethan Martin (23) — Acquired in the Shane Victorino trade, Martin excelled at Reading during a limited stint. Control will always be a concern; Martin has walked 5.5 batters per nine innings in his minor-league career. In seven starts with Reading, that figure was 4.1. After repeating double A in 2012, a promotion to triple A for the former first-rounder is likely in line.
THE TWEENERS
OF Zach Collier (22) — The former first-round pick missed the first 50 games of 2012 because of a suspension for adderal. At single-A Clearwater, he posted his finest offensive numbers yet. Then the Phillies sent Collier to the Arizona Fall League and he dominated with a .371/.461/.532 line in 62 at-bats. It could be enough to protect him.
OF Leandro Castro (23) — Castro was unprotected last season and not selected. A decent (and healthy) season at Reading put him back on the map. But he profiles similarly to Collier and Tyson Gillies, who already has a spot on the 40-man roster. There may not be enough room for them all, considering the Phillies still have signings to make in the outfield.
RHP Julio Rodriguez (22) — In July, he represented the Phillies at the annual Futures Game in Kansas City. He was hit hard there and it portended a dismal second half of 2012. Rodriguez was shuttled between the rotation and bullpen at double-A Reading. His walks jumped after a magnificent 2011 in Clearwater. Scouts have never been enamored with his high 80s fastball.
RHP Colby Shreve (25) — Shreve, a sixth-round pick, started 2012 at single-A Lakewood and finished at double-A Reading. He's older for those leagues and has never been a big strikeout arm as a reliever. The Phillies sent him to AFL for another look and he was mediocre in 10 innings there.
OF Jiwan James (24) — He was left unprotected last winter and Phillies officials predicted he'd be plucked from their system. That did not happen. James responded with a lackluster season in Reading (.249/.291/.360). Given he was not taken in 2011, expect the Phillies to follow the same path in 2012.
Here is how the current 40-man roster is comprised:
Pitchers — 19
Catchers — 3
Infielders — 7
Outfielders — 5
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
How bad we're the Phillies? Look at the stats on the sports home page. Rollins team leader in HRS RBIs think they have it wrong with BA as Ruiz was higher than 253— Johnny Callison- El Zorro, you're right that time is certainly running out for Ramirez, but you probably should have mentioned that the 10.80 ERA is in 3.1 innings.— schmenkman
- the phillies don't need more home run hitters they do need a manager that can still win with single doubles and stolen bases and chuck is not the Guy— abbyzuk
- Last year 12 players were taken in the major league Rule Five. Eight pitchers, three infielders and an outfielders. So the likely profile of a Rule Five draftee is a pitcher who can throw say in the mid to high 90's still with an upside that can be a 12th man on a major league pitching staff. Certainly enough scouts were at Instructs and the AFL recently to identify such a player.— Dull
- I hate the word prospect. Sounds too much like suspect.— jeromie
- dasher, I agree that the rule 5 draft is a crapshoot. Please rty to remember that Shane Victorino also came to the Phillies via that route. Even you would have to call that move a success. Look around baseball and you'll find that not too many successful players were acquired via the rule 5 draft. The Phillies rule 5 record is pretty good.— maurysline
- Even the Rangers, with all the money they have, don't want to give him more than a 3 year deal.— EL Zorro
- Youkilis wants at least a 2 year deal. The way the market is going, with Melky Cabrera signing a 2 year $18 million deal after the PED suspension and Torii Hunter getting a very generous deal, and Anibal Sanchez asking almost $100 millions, is going to be expensive to sign FA. Hamilton is not coming here. First, he'll be too expensive and has too many physical and mental issues. Too risky.— EL Zorro
- The 4 Tweenere, Castro, Rodriguez, Shreve and James, are not worthwhile protecting. Open up those spots for some talent. Look at the 19 pitchers -- the numbers are out of balance with the other positions.— 1republican
- Pierre did well for Phills but they have to think of future. Washington is very strong. Harper and Strassburg figure to be better. Phills should sign Youkilis and a one year deal though preferable will not get him. Youkilis for 3B and one from Hamilton, Victorino and Upton. My preferance would be in that order. Still dont think payroll will permit Hamilton signing. So many giving up on Brown and he's 25 years old. Still time for him to come through.— Don w
- Agree with eman, sign Hamilton, RUF and Dbrown, Mike Adams, and 1 year of Youk and HRs soar— WFChamps
- This is why "protecting" first-round, 11th grade draft picks when a stud like Josh Hamilton is available is idiotic. Sign Hamilton. Keep our to-die-for starting rotation intact and run hell-bent into 2013. Or else, analyze ourselves to death with marginal free agents and Juan Pierre acquisitions and finish 81-81.
— eman - Rube is salivating because the next Michael Martinez or David Herndon is eagerly awaiting the call.— dasher
- The first six guys mentioned here get the slots I feel. But the Phils are protecting Joe Savery largely because he's a former 1st round pick but he could come off the list in a heartbeat with no great angst. It's odd not seeing Michael Martinez on the list but that's only after the oddity of seeing him on previous lists so often. When you see the calibre of the bottom choices, you recognize how thin the Phils' farm system is at the higher levels. Most teams will have a harder time fitting their talent under the limit. If I were Ruben, I'd focus on a trade for someone they could add to the 40 man from a team expecting to lose someone through Rule 5. That's what alert GM's are looking at between now and Tuesday night.— Claudio Vernight
- Ramirez ERA in the Venezuelan is a whooping 10.80.— EL Zorro
- J.C. Ramirez is still protected for the second or third year in a row. He has regressed big time from a potential good starter, to back end of the bullpen reliever to a bust, imo. Time is up for him.— EL Zorro
- Pierre's gone? That's one of three .300 hitters on the squad. No thang - the Phils don't need offense.— Boru
- Who's the next Jason Werth?— towman
- Can we leave Ryan Howard unprotected?— Trocar
- There are several good hitting prospects, actually. Valle and Hunter and both are catchers. Gilles and Ruf, both are outfielders, Hernandez and Asche, both are infielders.— Paul SoTX
- Liked what we saw of Jiwan James at Reading last year but I didn't know he ended up at .249. Still think the guy is a hitting prospect, he certainly has the tools.— PhillySubsMac
- @PSM - Jiwan James says it all about the Phillies ability to draft the past few years. Hyped as an OF prospect, this is a guy who probably has the tools, but not the drive, gut and make-up to succeed. Otherwise, how to explain his lackluster production, performance and effort?
Likely a guy who wasn't challenged much coming up through 'daddy-ball' , had a great league season or two prior to draft time, and the Phils overprojected him to be a comer.
Sadly, many of the 'prospects' on this list are marginal, toss-ins; only one of which you will see any true service from in MLB.— 24sDad - Clueless, as usual.
James was drafted in the 22nd round in 2007 as a pitcher, got hurt in his first year, missed a full season, then came back as an outfielder. How does his failure to hit enough to be protected on the 40-man roster reflect in any way on the draft abilities of a team that didn't even draft him to be a hitter?
James has plus-plus speed and a plus-plus arm. He would play an above average major league centerfield right now. But he can't hit. That's because he lacks talent, not because he lacks character. Maybe we shouldn't leave the job of evaluatinng his guts, drive and work ethic to a guy who spends long hours every day composing endless, pointless screeds to post in the comments section of philly.com. Just maybe.
— phillyl0 - god we have no hitting prospects in our system.— edmundhan
- Hitting prospects: A Ball: Roman Quinn, Larry Greene, Carlos Tocci, Mitch Walding, Andrew Pullin, Zach Taylor, Dylan Cozens, Cameron Perkins-----AA Ball and higher: Mikael Franco, Cody Asche, Tom Joseph, Seb Valle, Zach Collier, Tyson Gillies and of course Darin Ruf. — Romus
- Because he was sent to the AFL potentially indicating the Phillies were giving him a longer look. Or, they may have just sent him to meet their requirement to send pitchers and they picked someone they didn't have plans for. Either way, he's eligible for the Rule 5.— bp_
- I don't understand why a guy like Shreve would even be on this list. A 25 year old at AA without a hot arm? There's plenty of guys like that in the bullpen already.— Dave14
